Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)

DATE=04/02/03

TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT

TITLE=SADDAM/MESSAGE

NUMBER=5-53345

BYLINE=GREG LAMOTTE

DATELINE=CAIRO

CONTENT=

VOICED AT:

INTRO: In a message read on Iraqi state television late Tuesday, the country's Information Minister repeatedly invoked Islam to try to inspire the Iraqi people to fight the U-S-led effort to unseat the Baghdad government. The emphasis on Islam struck many observers as odd because the Iraqi government is based on the staunchly secular Baath party philosophy.

Middle East correspondent Greg LaMotte reports from Cairo that religious experts and political analysts in the region are commenting on the Iraqi leadership's apparent strategy shift.

TEXT: The message, read Tuesday by Iraqi minister of information Mohammed Saeed al-Sahaf, called for Iraqis to fulfill their religious duty and fight invading U-S and British forces. The message said Iraqis would find heaven if they give their lives on the battlefield.

An expert on fundamentalism, Hala Mustafa of the al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies in Cairo, says the Iraqi regime wants to turn the conflict into a religious war because, she says, the ruling Baath party has lost its ability to mobilize Iraqi citizens.

/// MUSTAFA ACT ///

It means that this leader does not enjoy any political legitimacy anymore and he tried to Islamize the whole issue to earn a kind of fake political credibility and legitimacy. It means there is a weakness of the Baath itself. This party is supposed to be secular and when you resort to the religion it means that, by the party itself, by the slogans of the party or by the rules of the party, you are not able to mobilize the people anymore. So, you have to use something else.

/// END ACT ///

But at Cairo University, political science teacher Mohammed Kamal says the move does not mean the Iraqi government is abandoning the Baath-Party ideology. He says putting the conflict in religious terms is a "tactic," and one that Saddam and other Arab leaders have used in the past.

/// KAMAL ACT ///

It is not the first time that Saddam resorted to this Jihad talk. He used Islamic symbolism also during the first Gulf war. So, it is a tactic most leaders in this part of the world use to mobilize people, even if they do not believe in it. Many people today view this war with Iraq as a religious war, so he is just trying to capitalize on that. But that does not mean he is bankrupt with regard to his Baathist ideology or something like that.

/// END ACT ///

/// BEGIN OPT /// From the beginning of the war senior Iraqi officials have said they will use anything and everything at their disposal to fight U-S and British troops.

Sami Baroudi is the head of the political science department at Lebanese-American University in Beirut. He says that includes religious rhetoric, and he would not expect anything less from Saddam, who he says is "fighting for his life."

/// BAROUDI ACT ///

The regime is opportunistic and now that they think this notion of Jihad is going to help them then, of course, they are going to exploit it. I am sure he knows that this is the final battle. He either comes out of it or he is not going to come out of it. I do not think he is under any illusion that he will be offered an olive branch by the coalition. So, he realizes that this is the last fight. If he loses this battle, that is it, he is going to lose everything.

/// END ACT // END OPT ///

Most analysts in the region believe Saddam desperately wants to be remembered as a great Arab leader. Arab affairs analyst Abdullah el-Ashaal thinks the Iraqi president is trying to take advantage of the current political climate in the region to achieve that goal. With many Arabs viewing the war in religious terms, the ardent secularist Saddam Hussein is joining in.

/// EL-ASHAAL ACT ///

Saddam Hussein is now playing the card encouraging the Islamic movement, as to be on his line. And I expect after the war, whatever the result will be, the Islamic resurgence will be very strong and is going to be in competition with the regimes in the whole Islamic and Arab world.

/// END ACT ///

What remains unknown at this time is whether Saddam maintains control of his regime or whether he is even still alive.

But whether the change of approach reflects an attempt to secure his place in history, or a change of tactics by Saddam or his subordinates, there has been no indication of any response from the Iraqi people. On the contrary, foreign news broadcasts from southern and central Iraq show more and more Iraqis welcoming coalition forces into liberated towns, as the spearhead of the coalition advance moves on Baghdad. (SIGNED)

NEB/GL/AWP/RAE/FC