27 March 2003
Brookings Institution Panel Discusses U.S. Post-War Challenges
(Gaining international support for rebuilding Iraq biggest challenge) (680) By Paula Thomson Washington File Staff Writer Washington -- Gaining wide international support for rebuilding Iraq and dealing with future crises will be among the most difficult challenges the United States will face once the war in Iraq is over, said a panel of experts at the Brookings Institution in Washington March 25. In a briefing entitled, "On to Baghdad: What Will Coalition Forces Face Next?", four Brookings Institution experts -- Philip H. Gordon, Michael E. O'Hanlon, Fiona Hill, and Kenneth M. Pollack -- gave their assessments of the challenges that the United States will likely face. Pollack cautioned that because of the diplomatic problems going into the Iraq war, the United States' ability to gain wide international support for the reconstruction of Iraq would be "long and very difficult." The four panelists concurred that the United States needs to emphasize the international nature of the reconstruction of Iraq and preferably have it implemented under the auspices of the United Nations. Hill noted that this would be important particularly for Great Britain because of its desire "to avoid at all costs a semblance of a return to an imperial overlordship in Iraq." Pollack praised the Bush administration for showing willingness to allow the United Nations to coordinate the reconstruction of Iraq and urged the administration to continue moving in that direction. Responding to a question regarding the possibility of indefinite guerilla war in Iraq, Pollack suggested that such action would likely depend on whether the Iraq people remained contented and grateful for the U.S. presence, particularly during post-war reconstruction. Pollack warned that if the United States started moving post-war reconstruction in directions that started to antagonize the Iraqi people, opposition to the U.S. presence could start to form. The U.S. ability to build international support for crises beyond Iraq, as well as maintain existing diplomatic ties was another concern shared by all the panelists. Although the United States could very well have carried out the war, regime change, and the reconstruction of Iraq on its own -- albeit at a very high cost -- Pollack said that the next crisis "may not lend itself so well to unilateral American capabilities." "[W]hat I'm worried about is the next crisis we face, that we're going to need our allies a lot more than we actually needed them this time, and next time around they're not going to be as enthusiastic. They're not going to be there for us the way we'd like them to be," Pollack said. O'Hanlon pointed out North Korea as an example, which he said would be an even bigger crisis than Iraq. To gain the cooperation of the South Koreans and other countries in the region, President Bush will need a "serious overall diplomatic strategy," O'Hanlon said. Hill pointed out the growing feeling among the British that the U.S. government "does not appreciate the sacrifices that Britain is making and the political cost that Britain is likely to incur as a result of waging this war." Hill also noted the difference of opinion between the U.S. and Britain over the issue of Israel and Palestine. "[I]f the United States does not begin to really stress the humanitarian aspects of the war, does not in fact make any step on Israel and Palestine, then there will be a real rift with Great Britain," Hill said. Regarding the military campaign, O'Hanlon said things are going "reasonably well," but emphasized that this would not be a short war. "There still could be some real tough fighting ahead. Loss rates could still increase relative to what we've seen in the last couple of days, but nonetheless, I think the basic battle plan is on track," O'Hanlon said. A complete transcript of the panel's discussion may be viewed in portable document format (PDF) on the Brookings Institutions web site at http://www.brookings.edu/dybdocroot/comm/events/20030325.pdf. (The Washington File is a product of the Office of International Information Programs, U.S. Department of State. Web site: http://usinfo.state.gov)
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