Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)

DATE=March 23, 2003

TYPE=Dateline

TITLE=Role of Kurds and Shi'a in Post-Saddam Iraq

BYLINE=Carol Castiel

TELEPHONE=(202) 619-1101

DATELINE=Washington

EDITOR=Neal Lavon

CONTENT=

DISK: DATELINE THEME [PLAYED IN STUDIO, FADED UNDER DATELINE HOST VOICE OR PROGRAMMING MATERIAL]

HOST: Upon the eventual collapse of Saddam Hussein's regime, U.S. and coalition forces will play a key role in the maintenance of order. President Bush has pledged American commitment to help Iraq establish a democratic government. This government would enfranchise ethnic and religious groups that were excluded under Saddam. In this edition of Dateline, representatives of two such groupsIraq's Shi'a and Kurdish communities discuss their roles in a post-Saddam Hussein Iraq. Here's Carol Castiel.

CC: Iraq is a mosaic of ethnic and religious groups. Ethnically, Arabs and Kurds make up the majority of the population, however there are also pockets of Turkoman and Assyrians. Religiously, Shi'a Muslims outnumber Sunnis about 3 to 1. Nonetheless, under the rule of Saddam Hussein, a minority of Sunni Arabs controlled power. Regional experts say Saddam's Ba'th regime systematically excluded and persecutedIraq's Kurdish and Shi'a communties. When Saddam falls, members of those communities will seek a meaningful political role in the new government. In a press briefing prior to the war, President Bush outlined his vision of a free and democratic Iraq that would represent all Iraqis.

TAPE: CUT 1, BUSH :25

"I'm convinced that a liberated Iraq will be important to that troubled part of the world. The Iraqi people are plenty capable of governing themselves. Iraq's a sophisticated society. Iraq's got money. Iraq will provide a place where people could see that the Shi'a, the Sunni and the Kurds can get along in a federation. Iraq will serve as a catalyst for change, positive change."

CC: The Bush administration advocates a federal model for Iraq, wherein which all communities enjoy full political and cultural rights. Last year, the U.S. State Department initiated the Future of Iraq Project. The Project brought together independent Iraqis as well as representatives of political groups. These delegates have been discussing many of the practical issues they will face as together, they reconstruct the country.

Speaking to reporters last week, Undersecretary for Political Affairs Ambassador Marc Grossman stressed that the United States has no designs on Iraq's sovereignty or natural resources. Rather, America's primary aim is to rid the country of any weapons of mass destruction and help the country maintain its territorial integrity.

TAPE: CUT 2 GROSSMAN :30

"We seek an Iraq that is democratic, that is unified, an Iraq that has its territorial integrity, an Iraq that is multi-ethnic, an Iraq that has no weapons of mass destruction and an Iraq that is at peace with its neighbors. We will demonstrate that we intend to liberate Iraq and Iraqis and not to occupy Iraq and control its economic resources. And again to emphasize a very important, that we want to safeguard the territorial integrity of Iraq."

CC: But Carol O'Leary, adjunct professor at The School of International Service at American University, worries that the democratic ideal envisioned for Iraq could be subverted by neighboring states like Turkey and Iran.

TAPE: CUT 3, O'LEARY :12

"Neighboring states, in particular, Turkey and Iran, will involve themselves in the process to the detriment of the development of a pluralistic, democratic, and federal structure in Iraq."

CC: Turkey, which has a sizeable Kurdish minority, fears the creation of an independent Kurdish state on its border. Iran also rejects the idea of an independent Kurdistan. However, because the majority of Iranians are Shi'a Muslim, Carol O'Leary says they want to see their fellow Shi'a in Iraq attain a share of power.

TAPE CUT 4 O'LEARY :21

"Iranian officials have told me, I was just in Tehran last week, they can live with a federal Iraq, they can even live with a federal Iraq in which the Kurds get a federal unit. They don't want to see Kurdish independence any more than the Turks or the Syrians do. But, they won't live with replacing Saddam with another Arab Sunni minority ruling group, sort of cutting off the head but keeping the body of the system."

CC: Recently at two major meetings, one in London and the other in Salahuddin, northern Iraq, opposition groups reached a consensus on the idea of a federal model for the country. Carol O'Leary says such a system is crucial because all segments of the population, particularly the Shi'a and the Kurds, have suffered under Saddam Hussein.

TAPE: CUT 5, CAROL O'LEARY :46

"All parts of the Iraqi population, all ethnic and religious groups are traumatized and have been victims of Saddam Hussein. I myself believe, for example, that if the policy goal, for not only the U-S, but also the states in the region, is a unified, territorially integral Iraq, then you have to address the Kurdish question. It's never been addressed in Iraq's modern history. It's constantly been a destabilizing element in Iraqi political life. And until and unless it is addressed, there will continue to be instability in Iraq. And I think the way to address it without creating an independent Kurdistan, is staring us right in the face, and that's through federalism, essentially allowing the self-rule to continue under a federal structure."

CC: Kurds, who comprise approximately twenty percent of the Iraqi population, have lived in and successfully governed an autonomous safe haven in Northern Iraq for over 12 years. The area was created with the help of the United States and its allies after Saddam's forces crushed a Kurdish uprising following the first Persian Gulf War.

Dr. Najmaldin Karim is President of the Washington Kurdish Institute, a non-profit organization that promotes the rights of Kurdish people worldwide. He says the Kurds will not press for an independent Kurdistan as some elements in Iran and Turkey fear. But, he adds the Kurds do strongly endorse the creation of a democratic, federal Iraq that respects the rights of its citizens and which is at peace with its neighbors.

TAPE: CUT 6, KARIM :33

"In this federal system, the Kurds will have their historic, geographic Kurdistan, administered by themselves, we share the wealth of the country for all of Iraq. We will have the same defense mechanism for all of Iraq and the same foreign representation. However, the local affairs are strictly run by the people in the regions. There will be a Kurdish parliament, and then we share the central government authority with them. By giving some of our authority back to the center, we expect to gain the right to be participants in running the affairs of the central government."

CC: One potential flashpoint in all of this could be the city of Kirkuk. The Kurds were once a majority in that oil-rich city which is considered by Kurds to be the heart of historic Kurdistan. But in the last few decades, the government of Saddam Hussein drove out tens of thousands of Kurds and replaced them with Arabs resettled from other parts of Iraq. The fact that Kirkuk is the hub of an oil-rich region could eventually complicate the Kurds' return.

Analyst Carol O'Leary says elements inside and outside Iraq are fearful that, in their quest for greater autonomy, the Kurds would be tempted to seize the oil wells and secede from Iraq. However, various Kurdish political groups have publicly reiterated that they seek autonomy within a unified Iraq, not separation.

In addition to the Kurds, the Shi'a comprise the other group with a major stake in the future of Iraq. Arab Shi'a represent more than 65% of the Iraqi population. Like the Kurds, the Shi'a suffered a brutal crackdown on their uprising against Saddam in 1991.

The key Shi'a group represented in the opposition is the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq, or SCIRI. Their leader, Ayatollah Baqir al-Hakim has sought and gained refuge in Iran. I spoke to SCIRI's Washington representative Karim Al-Musawie about his group's aspirations for a post-Saddam Iraq.

TAPE: CUT 7, KARIM :33

"So they are looking for participation and pluralism and elected government in the future. It doesn't matter which ethic or which religion or which party will get more rule or how many votes they got. The most important thing is how to build a future Iraq, democratic and freedom and to build a new Iraq post-Saddam Hussein."

CC: Some observers worry that Iran might exert undue political influence on Iraqi Shi'a. But Mr. Al Musawie dismisses these concerns. He equates Iranian Shi'a influence on the Iraqi Shi'a to the pope's relationship to the world's Catholics.

TAPE: CUT 8 AL-MUSAWI :30

"Most of Iraniansthey are Shi'athat's what is common between us. But that doesn't mean we [don't] have our own independence. I don't think there is any influence, just there is some religious influence, so I am sure that Iranians have their own theory in their government, and also in their country and Iraqis at the same time have their own rule and their own issues in their country."

CC: In fact, analyst Carol O'Leary says one way to prevent undue influence from Iran, would be to give Iraqi Shi'a a proper power-sharing role in post-Saddam Iraq.

TAPE: CUT 8, CAROL O'LEARY :14

"If full political, cultural rights are not given to the Shi'a, as the majority, that have never been given to the Shi'a. If we don't ensure that they have full rights, then I would say Islamic radicalism of the Shi'a variant will grow."

CC: Carol O'Leary goes on to say that though they were initially reluctant, the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq has endorsed the idea of a federal structure for Iraq.

TAPE: CUT 10 CAROL O'LEARY :30

"It subscribes to a democratic, federal, pluralistic Iraq. It wasn't really always on board with federalism, but over the last several years it has found that there is an Islamic basis I guess in the Koran for federalism. And so, I would say that the position of the Supreme Council is the position of the united opposition as articulated in the documents produced in December in London and then just recently in northern Iraq in the Kurdish safe haven out of the Salahuddin follow-up conference."

CC: On the issue of Kurdish-Shi'a relations, Dr. Najmaldin Karim of the Washington Kurdish Institute is optimistic that the two previously marginalized and brutalized groups can work together.

TAPE: CUT 11 KARIM :20

"The suppression of the Shi'a in a way is really not less than what the Kurds have suffered except you know when it comes to chemical weapons and all that, so we believe that it's only right for the Shiite population of Iraq to take their proper role and position according to their size in ruling Iraq. And the relationship between all different Shi'a groups and the Kurds are excellent."

CC: Only time will tell whether a federal, unified and democratic Iraqone which respects the nation's diverse ethnic and religious mixcan truly emerge from the ashes of Saddam Hussein's brutal regime.

But most analysts agree that long-term commitment to Iraq's political development by the United States may be necessary to help groups like the Kurds and Shi'a take their rightful place in a post-Saddam Iraq.

For Dateline, I'm Carol Castiel in Washington.

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