Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)

DATE=3/20/03

TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT

TITLE=PENTAGON / FOG OF WAR

NUMBER=5-53287

BYLINE=ALEX BELIDA

DATELINE=PENTAGON

CONTENT=

VOICED AT:

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INTRO: U-S and British troops have begun pushing into southern Iraq following further airstrikes against selected Iraqi command and control targets. V-O-A Pentagon Correspondent Alex Belida reports few details are being released, but, he says, that is part of a strategy designed to keep Iraqis guessing.

TEXT: The "Fog of War" is defined by military officials as a lack or loss of situational awareness on the battlefield that leads to confusion. Often it is used to describe the kind of confusion that leads to mistakes --- mistakes like unintended civilian casualties and "friendly fire" deaths in which soldiers accidentally kill comrades.

But in the conflict now under way in Iraq, senior Pentagon officials acknowledge they are intentionally creating a "fog of war" --- refusing to confirm or deny a variety of military operations.

The Chairman of the military's Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Richard Myers, says the goal is to preserve an element of surprise.

///MYERS ACTUALITY///

We still want to preserve tactical surprise as much as possible. So we will not confirm or deny any preparatory actions, whether accurate or inaccurate. We will acknowledge the obvious if those actions become visible, but give few details.

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Although General Myers says the effort to allow ambiguities and uncertainties to creep into reporting on the war is a security issue, other senior officials make clear it is also intended to unsettle Iraqi commanders and the Iraqi people.

One senior military official tells V-O-A that effort appears to be working. In his words, "If there is any confusion on the battlefield now, it is on the Iraqi side." The official says there are indications Iraqi troops may be having difficulty coordinating or even undertaking any form of opposition to the U-S led attack.

In part, that is because coalition forces have focused their initial strikes on what are termed leadership targets --- sites where Iraqi civilian and military leaders are located --- along with critical communications and command and control facilities. The hope is to separate commanders from their forces in the field, preventing orders from reaching rank-and-file soldiers and encouraging those troops to then abandon their posts and any idea of fighting back.

Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld believes this effort is causing many Iraqis to evaluate the wisdom of displaying any further loyalty to Saddam Hussein.

///RUMSFELD ACTUALITY///

Once they are persuaded that that regime is history, it is going, it will not be there, in some reasonably finite period of time they [leaders] will be gone, then their [the people's] behavior begins to tip and change. And the -- when I said we have good evidence, we have not only good evidence but we have broad and deep evidence that suggests that there are people going through that decision-making process throughout that country today, and that is a good thing.

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The Pentagon believes if enough Iraqis have second thoughts, then it may be possible to forgo a much-anticipated "shock and awe" attack featuring an unprecedented rain of bombs and missiles coupled with a massive ground offensive.

But military officials make clear they are prepared to go ahead with that attack if it is needed. And as one senior source puts it, once that assault is under way, "it could be very persuasive to those who think it is still a good idea to fight." (Signed)

NEB/BEL/MAR