Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)

DATE=03/12/03

TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT

TITLE=BUSH WAR GAMBLE

NUMBER=5-53223

BYLINE=JIM MALONE

DATELINE=WASHINGTON

INTRO: What happens in Iraq over the next several weeks could make or break President Bush's hopes for re-election next year. National correspondent Jim Malone reports that a U-S led invasion of Iraq carries the prospect of both political reward and risk for Mr. Bush.

TEXT: The president's supporters and critics have little in common these days. But one thing they do agree on is that the prospect of U-S military action in Iraq is a high stakes political gamble for President Bush:

/// 1ST SABATO TEASER ACT ///

It could either add a lot of luster to his presidency in history or it could initiate him into the hall of one-term presidents along with his father.

/// END ACT ///

That is University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato.

He says the president could easily lose re-election if the war goes badly. But Professor Sabato says even a successful war in Iraq would not guarantee the president political success at home:

/// 2ND SABATO ACT ///

Wars like this tend not to have much of a payoff at election time, especially because it is bound to be a relatively brief war. If that happens, it will be long forgotten by the time of the election in November of 2004 and it will help him about as much as the Persian Gulf war victory helped his father. That is, not at all.

/// END ACT ///

A new public opinion poll suggests that President Bush is having some success in shoring up domestic support for a possible war with Iraq. A New York Times-CBS News poll found that 55-percent of those surveyed would support a U-S invasion of Iraq without an endorsement by the United Nations Security Council.

Previous polls have indicated that many Americans were reluctant to go to war without U-N support.

The slight shift in public opinion comes in the wake of the president's recent news conference in which he repeatedly explained why he believes military action may be justified in disarming Iraq:

/// BUSH ACT ///

(It) used to be that we could think that we could contain a person like Saddam Hussein, that oceans would protect us from his type of terror. September the 11th should say to the American people that we are now a battlefield.

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Even as the prospects for war grow stronger, opposition Democrats continue to criticize what they believe is the administration's rush to war.

/// OPT /// This is the Senate Democratic leader, Tom Daschle of South Dakota:

/// DASCHLE ACT ///

We think it is critical, absolutely essential, that the United States work in concert with our allies and the world community.

/// END ACT //END OPT ///

Democrats insist that the president's willingness to unilaterally disarm Saddam Hussein has already eroded much of the bipartisan good will and national unity that was apparent in the aftermath of the September 11th terrorist attacks.

The recent New York Times-CBS News poll found that 86-percent of Republicans and 64-percent of Independents support military action to oust Saddam Hussein. But the poll found Democrats sharply divided with only 51-percent in favor of military action.

/// OPT /// Divisions over Iraq often lead to partisan exchanges on television and radio call-in programs like this one on the C-SPAN public affairs network:

/// VOX POP ACTS ///

PRO-WAR ACT: Anyway you can get to Saddam (is good). He is a capricious fellow and he can't be trusted and I think it is a good thing to get rid of dictators like that around the world.

ANTI-WAR ACT: It just seems to me that we are in a headlong rush to fight. /// opt /// Just kick somebody's butt. /// end opt /// It seems like a petty and dangerous move to make with all the really bad guys that are out in the world and it is just so much propaganda, it just boggles the mind.

/// END ACT ///

Norm Ornstein is a political analyst at the American Enterprise Institute here in Washington. He says the domestic political divide over Iraq will likely extend into next year's presidential election campaign:

/// ORNSTEIN ACT ///

That if it doesn't go well, either at the beginning or as we go along over the next few months, that you will find probably a fairly united Democratic team ready to stomp on the president with cleats if they can manage to do so.

/// END ACT ///

That may be true, but the president's stance on Iraq is wildly popular with his conservative Republican base.

Political expert Larry Sabato says the president's gamble on Iraq is somewhat surprising given his narrow election victory over Al Gore in 2000:

/// 3RD SABATO ACT ///

The rewards are not that great, except in history. The electoral risks are enormous and, of course, in American history, presidents who have achieved great status, or near great status, have been those willing to take large risks.

/// END ACT ///

For all the talk about Iraq, the president's political fortunes could just as easily be determined by the fate of the U-S economy. Mr. Bush is hoping to avoid the fate of his father who won the 1991 Gulf war but lost re-election a year later largely because of a weak economy. (Signed)

NEB/JBM/MEM/KBK