Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)

DATE=3/11/03

TYPE=INTERVIEW TRANSCRIPT

TITLE= RICHARD REEVE, JANE'S

NUMBER=3-583

BYLINE=SARAH WILLIAMS

DATELINE=WASHINGTON

/// EDITORS: THIS INTERVIEW IS AVAILABLE IN DALET UNDER SOD/ENGLISH NEWS NOW INTERVIEWS IN THE FOLDER FOR TODAY OR YESTERDAY ///

INTRO: The White House says the United Nations Security Council will vote this week on a new resolution that could lead to military action against Iraq. Both France and Russia say they will vote against a draft resolution, sponsored by the U-S, Britain and Spain, that could lead to war. The controversy involving a new resolution has focused attention on some non-permanent members of the Security Council, that could sway the overall result. Three African countries, Cameroon, Guinea, and Angola are being pressured by both sides for their votes. Richard Reeve is Africa editor of Jane's Sentinel Security, a London-based security information service. Mr. Reeve tells VOA's Sarah Williams about the directions he thinks they are heading regarding a resolution on Iraq.

MR. REEVE: Very much significant delay is the crucial thing. None of them really wants to be drawn to make a decision, because the situation that they have come to depend upon the last 12 years since the end of the Cold War is one of getting aid and support from all kinds of sources. And primarily that does include the U.S., France, the U.K., and so on. But in terms of if they are forced to choose, you can look probably at probably a few states going more towards the U.S.-U.K. and one going more towards France. I think Cameroon has a more French agenda than the other two. I think Angola is the most obviously aligned towards the U.S.-U.K. And I think Guinea, which is perhaps somewhere in between, might well swing more towards the U.S.

MS. WILLIAMS: Two of the countries, Cameroon and Guinea, are former French colonies. Why is there perhaps, regarding Guinea, a possibility that that country, say, may not follow its former colonial ruler?

MR. REEVE: Guinea has a very different relationship with France than the other former French African colonies. It achieved independence two years before the other colonies, in 1958. It was basically unceremoniously dumped by the French Government after it rejected a new constitutional relationship with Paris and, thereafter, for about 20 years, Guinea had a very problematic relationship with France. And it hasn't really forgotten the way it was treated by France in the 1950's, 1960's and 1970's. For example, it didn't adopt the CFA franc the way the other colonies did, and it basically doesn't have the same French cultural influence.

MS. WILLIAMS: And why do you think Angola is more perhaps likely than some of the other countries to follow the direction of the United States?

MR. REEVE: Angola was never a French colony. It was a Portuguese colony in those days. It is an oil producer, with very major American interests in developing those oilfields, and also British and, to a large degree, French as well. But the U.S. is the prime customer for Angolan oil and so it's very, very important to their economy there.

Cameroon also is an oil exporter, but oil has a lesser importance in its economy, and the French influence is probably predominant there over the U.S. companies.

MS. WILLIAMS: As I mentioned earlier, these three countries have been the subject of a lot of lobbying. I believe the French Foreign Minister visited all three of them, and I think I have heard that Secretary of State Colin Powell has been in pretty close phone contact with representatives of all three countries. And these countries, because of this, are getting a lot of attention from the international community that perhaps they don't usually get. Is there a way, do you think, that they are trying to use this to their advantage, say, in the future for assistance programs?

MR. REEVE: Well, certainly they will be looking to derive some advantage from this. They will also be looking not to lose advantages. In all three cases, none of them are really functioning democracies. They don't really meet the conditionality requirements of donors. That is especially true in the case of Guinea in terms of governance, and Angola in terms of corruption, but Cameroon is no Switzerland either. So, the way that Western states have traditionally approached these countries, when looking for support, is to continue turning a blind eye or to look the other way more often in terms of the way they conduct their own domestic affairs.

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