Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)

DATE=3/6/2003

TYPE=CORRESPONDENT REPORT

TITLE=CQ BRITAIN / IRAQ / U-N (L-O)

NUMBER=2-300432

BYLINE=DALE GAVLAK

DATELINE=LONDON

CONTENT=

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INTRO: In an effort to win support for a second U-N Security Council resolution on Iraq, the United States and Britain are proposing a compromise that could allow Iraq more time to comply with disarmament demands. As V-O-A's Dale Gavlak reports from London, analysts in Britain say the compromise is aimed at securing the votes of Security Council members wavering over war on Iraq - and helping British Prime Minister Tony Blair.

TEXT: The second resolution, as now written, says Iraq has failed to take the final opportunity to disarm fully, completely and immediately as required in Resolution 14-41, passed last November.

The compromise is expected to present Iraqi President Saddam Hussein with an ultimatum and set out precise tasks and deadlines that would demonstrate his willingness to disarm. Failure to meet these benchmark tests would authorize force against Iraq.

Victor Bulmer-Thomas heads the Royal Institute of International Affairs. He says such a revision is needed in order to secure the votes of ten elected members to the Security Council who are uncertain about backing war on Iraq. At stake is support from the so-called swing six -- Mexico, Chile, Angola, Cameroon, Guinea and Pakistan. These countries have expressed unwillingness to support war at this stage unless all diplomatic opportunities have been exhausted.

Mr. Bulmer-Thomas says a revised resolution is necessary because the U-N's chief arms inspector, Hans Blix, is expected to tell the United Nations Friday that Iraq is making some progress towards disarmament. That testimony, Mr. Bulmer-Thomas says, could make it all but impossible to get Security Council approval of a tough resolution against Iraq, which is why, he says, it needs to be amended .

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The British government feels that, in its current form and with the possibility of a quite favorable report from Blix to the Security Council, the draft resolution would fail. And it is exceedingly important for the British government that a second resolution pass. They feel that the only hope if it is to come to a vote next week is to proceed with an amended version which might just possibly secure more support.

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/// OPT /// Mr. Bulmer-Thomas also says that British Prime Minister Tony Blair was caught off guard by Russia's strong alignment with France and Germany expressed in Paris on Wednesday. The three permanent Security Council members want more time for arms inspections and have threatened to use their veto in a vote urging war on Iraq. /// END OPT ///

Paul Whitely, a professor of government at the University of Sussex in southern England, says Mr. Blair is trying to soften the resolution to see if there is a possibility of a third way between the position of the United States and that of France, Russia and Germany.

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The fact that the Germans, Russians and French have lined up together so strongly and they have got European public opinion behind them means that it is very unlikely they are willing to accept a resolution that allows war. It is apparent that Tony Blair's nightmare scenario is getting closer. This is the scenario in which there isn't another U-N resolution accepting force and therefore Britain gets involved in a war which is not sanctioned by the U-N. That puts his own political position in jeopardy and would I think trigger a massive revolt in the backbench Labor party and indeed the party in the country. So they want, they need another resolution.

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Professor Emeritus Donald Cameron-Watt of the London School of Economics says Mr. Blair is facing a different domestic political situation than President Bush, who has said he will disarm Iraq with or without U-N authorization. Most Britons say they will not support war against Iraq without U-N backing. Even so, Mr. Cameron-Watt says, the United States may be willing to accept a change in the resolution if it provides its staunch ally, Tony Blair, the support he needs.

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This augurs to me that the pressure on them is getting to them a bit. But I don't think it should be taken as an indication that when the crunch comes Blair will lose his nerve. I certainly don't think he will. But of course he has been hoping all along that the pressure on Saddam would make it unnecessary to use force against him.

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On Wednesday Mr. Blair told the British parliament that Iraqi President Saddam Hussein must either comply with U-N resolutions to disarm completely and immediately or leave Iraq. Analysts say the compromise would provide Mr. Hussein with a final opportunity to disarm or face war.

They also say that, even if the Security Council does not approve the second resolution, Prime Minister Blair is committed to a war against Iraq. (SIGNED)

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