Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)

DATE=3/6/03

TYPE=INTERVIEW TRANSCRIPT

TITLE=BULENT ALIRIZA

NUMBER=3-575

BYLINE=KENT KLEIN

DATELINE=WASHINGTON

CONTENT=

/// EDITORS: THIS INTERVIEW IS AVAILABLE IN DALET UNDER SOD/ENGLISH NEWS NOW INTERVIEWS IN THE FOLDER FOR TODAY OR YESTERDAY ///

OPEN: The Bush administration says time is running out for Turkey to decide on a U-S troop deployment on Turkish soil. Turkish military Chief of Staff General Hilmi Ozkok said Wednesday the army supports the deployment. General Ozkok said siding with the United States would minimize the damage to Turkey if war breaks out.

Bulent Aliriza (BYOO-lent al-ih-REE-zuh) is the director of the Turkey Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, here in Washington. He talked with V-O-A's Kent Klein about what military support means for the government's position....

MR. ALIRIZA: The most interesting thing about the statement by the chief of staff today (Wednesday) was the timing. He chose not to give a clear lead when the National Security Council met last Friday, one day before the vote, and so this is a way of countering the rumors that the military did not want this resolution to pass and, in a way, sharing the burden of the government in getting this resolution to go through.

The problem is the government we have is on the verge of resigning. It will resign and make way for the formation of a new government by the leader of the party Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who is running in by-elections in Siirt. So, the likelihood is that the vote is unlikely to come up until next week at the earliest, when this government will have resigned and is about to be replaced by Mr. Erdogan's government.

MR. KLEIN: And it appears that Mr. Erdogan's government would be less likely to approve the U.S. use of Turkish space?

MR. ALIRIZA: No. In fact, Mr. Erdogan has been much, much more supportive of the idea of cooperation than Mr. Gul. Mr. Gul gave the impression of being somewhat ambivalent on this issue. Mr. Erdogan has been less ambivalent. And frankly, the signals coming out of Mr. Erdogan's camp is that he would be willing to move on this issue, but only after he gains a victory in the by-elections and is on the way to becoming prime minister.

MR. KLEIN: How much influence does the military wield in Turkey?

MR. ALIRIZA: If we look at the history of the Turkish Republic, the fact that they've undertaken a number of coups, directly or indirectly, and have been exercising tremendous influence through the monthly meetings of the National Security Council, suggest that they still have great influence, not just as protectors of the Turkish Republic against not just foreign but also what they say are domestic challenges, but also in guiding, helping to guide, the government when you get issues of national security, broadly defined, at the meetings in which they participate.

Frankly, this is an ideal and an appropriate occasion for them to speak up, because there were political and, in addition to the political and economic agreements which had been financed by the United States, there was a military agreement. And that involved the coordination between the United States and Turkey on not just permitting the U.S. forces to go through Turkey to fight Saddam Hussein in the event of war, but also underlying U.S. acceptance of Turkish entry into northern Iraq to form a buffer zone, as well as additional issues dear to the heart of the Turkish military, such as the prevention of a Kurdish state.

All those issues really cried out for the military to make an open declaration at the NSC meeting, which they did not. Nonetheless, they have finally spoken and this may clear the way for a move by the Turkish Parliament once Mr. Erdogan becomes prime minister. But the question is whether the Turkish timing will fit in with whatever timing there may be in Washington relating to a possible war.

CLOSE: Bulent Aliriza (BYOO-lent al-ih-REE-zuh) is the director of the Turkey Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

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