Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)

VOA INTERVIEW WITH ROSEMARY HOLLIS,

HEAD OF MIDDLE EAST ISSUES,

ROYAL INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS

BY VOA'S PAT BODNAR - FEBRUARY 24, 2003

HOST: The United States and Britain have embarked on a final diplomatic push this week to win enough votes to pass a Security Council resolution on the use of force against Iraq for not disarming. (The resolution was introduced Monday afternoon at a closed-door U-N session). France has put itself on a collision course with Washington over the resolution, putting forth its own proposal, or "memorandum," along with Germany and Russia to boost the arms inspection program.

Rosemary Hollis is the head of Middle East Issues at the Royal Institute of International Affairs in London. She tells V-O-A's Pat Bodnar that submitting a second resolution to the United Nations indicates to the world that the United States and Britain are working with the United Nations and living up to expectations in the November U-N resolution.

MS. HOLLIS: And, that, of course, expects consultation with the Security Council. It doesn't actually require a new resolution to be passed. But simply by tabling this resolution, the British and Americans will have gone through the motions of consulting their colleagues at the Security Council. And then, if they have to go without them, so be it, I imagine.

MS. BODNAR: At the moment, it seems the French are leading the charge to perhaps stall the resolution or put forward their own resolution -- with what consequences?

MS. HOLLIS: It will increase the tension if the French are pushing a different resolution from the United States. The confrontation is already quite serious. It is looking less and less likely that there can be reconciliation between the French position and the U-S position in time for a war this season. My understanding is that because of these kinds of tensions and because of new information about just how seriously wrong a campaign could go -- not necessarily will go but could go -- there are those who are saying: Why is this all having to be done in such a hurry?

MS. BODNAR: As we understand it, there will be a push for a vote within two weeks, perhaps in order to ratchet up the pressure or perhaps to get into the region before the weather changes. What's your assessment?

MS. HOLLIS: I think there are two conflicting pressures here. On the one hand, for the day after a U.S. invasion of Iraq, the more international support there is for taking forward the region to a more stable future, the better. And without support at the United Nations, the chances of that are much diminished. On the other hand, the military timetable is dictated by the weather and the fact that you cannot keep troops at the ready, in place, indefinitely. And these two imperatives are working against each other.

MS. BODNAR: What are the next steps as the Iraq crisis unfolds at the United Nations?

MS. HOLLIS: It remains the case that for the British Prime Minister a U-N resolution to give the go-ahead for military action, failing a change of policy, a fundamental change of policy, on the W-M-D issue by the Iraqis, that, for the British Prime Minister, it's a big political risk to have to go despite the U-N. So, if nothing else, this effort in the coming week or so is to respond to the needs of Prime Minister Tony Blair.

HOST: Rosemary Hollis is the Head of Middle East Issues at the Royal Institute of International Affairs in London. She spoke with V-O-A's Pat Bodnar.