Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)

DATE=2/26/03

TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT

TITLE=BLAIR / POLITICS / IRAQ

NUMBER=5-53158

BYLINE=DALE GAVLAK

DATELINE=LONDON

CONTENT=

VOICED AT:

INTRO: British Prime Minister Tony Blair is facing a revolt from within his ruling Labor Party over the issue of war against Iraq. Analysts say Mr. Blair's staunch support for the United States has put his political future in jeopardy. V-O-A's Dale Gavlak reports from London.

TEXT: Analysts who have watched Prime Minister Blair's political career for many years say it is baffling to see the normally cautious politician take on such a risky venture as going to war against Iraq, even possibly without the backing of the United Nations.

Paul Whiteley, professor of government at the University of Sussex, says Labor backbenchers, junior members of Parliament, are expected to mount a serious challenge to Mr. Blair's Iraq policy during a House of Commons debate on Wednesday.

/// WHITELEY ACT ///

The worst scenario from his point of view would be to carry the issue in Parliament, but only with the help of Conservatives. I think that would almost be lethal. Then it would be a matter of time before he was challenged for the position of Prime Minister.

/// END ACT ///

/// OPT /// Professor Dennis Kavanagh, of the University of Liverpool says Mr. Blair's position is shaky -- perhaps for the first time in his tenure as prime minister -- with the majority of Britons against entering a war on Iraq without U-N backing.

/// KAVANAGH ACT ///

This would be pretty unprecedented for the British government to enter a war with such deep divisions back at home. You have to go back to the Suez invasion in 1956, which I have to say, ended in the resignation of Prime Minister Anthony Eden at the time. That is why he needs that second U-N resolution. That will not kill off all the dissent. There are a number of wavering members of Parliament who will be persuaded to support the government, or at least not vote against it, if the second U-N resolution comes through.

/// END ACT // END OPT ///

Analysts, such as the University of Sussex's Paul Whitely, say they believe Mr. Blair is willing to stake his political career on disarming Iraq, even to the point of going to war, because he takes Iraqi President Saddam Hussein's threat to security very seriously.

/// 2ND WHITELEY ACT ///

His view is the best way to combat terrorism is to take on states, particularly like Iraq, that have got a record of supporting it, and take them head on. I do not think he shares the Bush Administration's optimism that you can reshape the Middle East as the U-S shaped Japanese politics in 1945.

/// END ACT ///

But Professor Emeritus Donald Cameron Watt of the London School of Economics says Mr. Blair's stand is based on intelligence which neither he nor Washington can now reveal. He says the potentially critical revolt of Labor backbenchers purportedly seeking to undermine Mr. Blair may not succeed.

/// CAMERON-WATT ACT ///

I do not think it will be that large. Labor revolts of this kind have a habit of being large enough for people to make their pointthat they have consciences with a capital "C," but not large enough to overthrow the government.

/// END ACT ///

Mr. Cameron Watt says he believes Mr. Blair will eventually have sufficient political and public support even if Britain goes to war without U-N backing.

/// 2ND CAMERON-WATT ACT ///

I suspect when it comes to the point, there will probably be enough confusion in the public that he will have support. It has been done before and the odds are not always as good as they ought to be, but if is a success, then as Suez, which is often compared to it was not, then he will get away with it. And his opponents in Parliament will be left looking rather foolish.

/// END ACT ///

Liverpool's Dennis Kavanagh says Mr. Blair has succeeded in appealing to the British public in a way that no other Labor leader in history has done -- by speaking to the concerns of the country's vast middle class.

/// 2ND KAVANAGH ACT ///

Blair has a great confidence in his ability not just to read public opinion, but to swing public opinion, and he thinks he can do it on this.

/// END ACT ///

Up to 100 of Labor's more than 400-lawmakers are believed to be considering rebelling on the Iraq issue.

About 120-members of parliament, mainly from the Labor party, have signed a Commons motion that would put conditions on sending British troops to Iraq. They include clear evidence that Iraq poses an imminent threat to peace, a specific House of Commons authorization for military action, U-N backing, and the pursuit of all other policy options before a war is launched. (SIGNED)

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