14 February 2003
U.N. Inspectors Present Mixed Picture of Iraqi Compliance
(Chemical, biological weapons still unaccounted for, Blix says) (1220) By Judy Aita Washington File UN Correspondent United Nations -- Chief U.N. weapons inspectors February 14 continued to present to the U.N. Security Council a mixed picture of Iraqi disarmament: no banned chemical, biological or nuclear weapons found, but continuing doubts about Iraqi's intentions to disarm, evidence of illegal long-range missiles being developed, and stockpiles of deadly chemical and biological weapons still unaccounted for. More cooperation from Iraq, they said, would speed up their work. Hans Blix, executive chairman of the U.N. Monitoring, Verification, and Inspections Commission (UNMOVIC) said that "if Iraq had provided the necessary cooperation in 1991" as required by resolution 687, the disarmament phase could have been short and a decade of sanctions could have been avoided. "Today," he said, "three months after the adoption of resolution 1441, the period of disarmament through inspections could be short, if 'immediate, active and unconditional cooperation' with UNMOVIC and the IAEA [International Atomic Energy Agency] were to be forthcoming." Blix and Mohamed ElBaradei, director general of IAEA, reported on their two-day visit to Baghdad February 8 and 9, and on their inspection activities since their last report to the council on January 27. Foreign ministers of ten of the council's 15 member nations attended the open council session. In January Blix said that there was no evidence that Saddam Hussein was voluntarily disarming or had made the decision to cooperate in providing the evidence needed to assure the inspectors that there were no weapons of mass destruction. The council has been deeply divided over whether to declare Iraq once again in material breach of its disarmament obligations, based on the reports, and to follow through on warnings of "serious consequences" contained in resolution 1441 passed unanimously in November 2002. Blix said that, so far, UNMOVIC has not found any banned weapons, only a small number of empty chemical munitions which should have been declared and destroyed. But a matter of "great significance" is that "many proscribed weapons and items are not accounted for," he said. ElBaradei said that his agency is still investigating reports of Iraq's efforts to procure uranium and high strength aluminum tubes, attempts to procure a facility for manufacturing magnets, and use of the high explosive HMX. The "most important" problems the inspectors are facing, Blix said, are anthrax and the nerve agent VX. He said Iraq missed the opportunity to provide fresh material to answer the open questions on those weapons in its December declaration. "Although I can understand that it may not be easy for Iraq in all cases to provide the evidence needed, it is not the task of the inspectors to find it. Iraq itself must squarely tackle this task and avoid belittling the questions," Blix said. The UNMOVIC chief also said that Iraqi documents suggest that "some 1,000 tons of chemical agent were 'unaccounted for.' One must not jump to the conclusion that they exist. However, that possibility is also not excluded. If they exist, they should be presented for destruction. If they do not exist credible evidence to that effect should be presented." During the recent meeting in Baghdad, Iraq suggested that the inspectors could use technical and analytical methods to account for the anthrax and two VX-precursors that Iraq said it had destroyed without U.N. supervision. U.N. weapons inspectors, Blix said, "are not very hopeful that it could prove possible to assess the quantities of material poured into the ground years ago. Documentary evidence and testimony by staff that dealt with the items still appears to be needed." On ballistic missiles, Blix said that Iraq had reconstituted casting chambers that previous U.N. weapons inspectors had ordered destroyed, rebuilt a missile engine test stand, and imported rocket engines that have resulted in missiles whose range is greater than the allowed 150 kilometers. UNMOVIC missile experts met with other missile experts from seven nations to review Iraqi test results on the Al Samoud 2 and the Al Fatah missiles. UNMOVIC had told Iraq to cease test flights until the technical review was completed. "The experts concluded unanimously that, based on the data provided by Iraq, the two declared variants of the Al Samoud 2 missile were capable of exceeding 150 kilometers in range. This missile is therefore proscribed for Iraq" according to Security Council resolutions, Blix said. The experts confirmed that Iraq's remake of the casting chambers from its banned Badr-2000 missile systems "could still be used to produce motors for missiles capable of ranges significantly greater than 150 kilometers," he said. "Accordingly, these chambers remain proscribed." The missile test stand can also be used to test missile engines with thrusts greater than that of short-range missiles, but so far the stand has not been used for any banned activities, Blix said. On the issue of 380 SA-2 missile engines Iraq illegally imported despite U.N. sanctions, Blix said that since Iraq said it was importing the engines for the Al Samoud 2 missile system, which has now been determined to be proscribed, the engines are also banned. Blix welcomed Iraq's announcement that it was expanding the commission it set up after UNMOVIC found empty chemical weapons warheads. And he said a second commission to search all over the country for more documents "could be a useful tool." He said that UNMOVIC plans to start using U-2 surveillance aircraft early next week and is working on arrangements to use French Mirage aircraft and German drones. ElBaradei said that "we have to date found no evidence of ongoing prohibited nuclear or nuclear related activities in Iraq. However ... a number of issues are still under investigation and we are not yet in a position to reach a conclusion about them." He said that IAEA is continuing its nuclear inspections, has identified facilities where it will re-establish containment and surveillance systems for long-term monitoring, and is taking air samples in key locations. IAEA is also following up reports of Iraqi attempts to import uranium, "hopefully with the assistance of the African country reported to have been involved," he said. And the agency is still exploring whether the high strength aluminum tubes Iraq had also tried to import were intended for the manufacture of centrifuges for uranium enrichment or conventional rockets. Documents found in the home of an Iraqi scientist related predominately to lasers, including the use of laser technology to enrich uranium, and appear to be the personal files of the scientist in whose home they were found, ElBaradei said. "Nothing contained in the documents alters the conclusions previously drawn by the IAEA concerning the extent of Iraq's laser enrichment program." "IAEA's experience in nuclear verification shows that it is possible, particularly with an intrusive verification system, to assess the presence or absence of a nuclear weapons program in a state even without the full cooperation of the inspected state," ElBaradei said. "However, prompt, full and active cooperation by Iraq, as required under resolution 1441, will speed up the process and more importantly, it will enable us to reach a high degree of assurance required by the Security Council," he said. (The Washington File is a product of the Office of International Information Programs, U.S. Department of State. Web site: http://usinfo.state.gov)
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