Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)

DATE=02/06/03

TYPE=INTERVIEW TRANSCRIPT

TITLE=DOV WAXMAN, PROF. AT BOWDOIN COLLEGE, MAINE

NUMBER=3-526

BYLINE=REBECCA WARD

DATELINE=WASHINGTON

/// EDITORS: THIS INTERVIEW IS AVAILABLE IN DALET UNDER SOD/ENGLISH NEWS NOW INTERVIEWS IN THE FOLDER FOR TODAY OR YESTERDAY ///

HOST: Turkey's parliament has agreed to allow the United States to begin upgrading military bases and ports for a possible war with Iraq. Today's vote is seen as the first step ahead of possible deployment of U-S forces to Turkey ahead of any operations in neighboring Iraq. Dov Waxman (pron: Dove Wax-muhn) is an assistant professor of government at Bowdoin (bow-done) College in Brunswick, Maine. He tells News Now's Rebecca Ward that Turkey's decision is not surprising given the pressure it was under from the United States.

PROF. WAXMAN: I think they were really between a rock and a hard place, and ultimately they had no real choice but to comply, despite the evident uneasiness of Turkish public opinion about the decision. And given the large majority that the government has within the parliament, I think, once they made the decision to go along with the request from the administration, it was clear that they knew they had the support within the parliament to pass the measure.

MS. WARD: Why do you think Turkey, as opposed to other countries in the region, so closely allies itself -- of course it is in NATO -- but so closely aligns itself with the United States and the West?

PROF. WAXMAN: I think there are two broad reasons for that. First of all, there is the strategic reason, going back to the early period of the Cold War, and obviously the perceived threat from the Soviet Union at the time, which pushed Turkey then to join the Western camp and to solidly cast its lot with the United States and its allies. So, those strategic ties between Turkey and the West, and the United States in particular, go back to the early period of the Cold War. And Turkey has long believed that its strategic interests lie in a close alliance with the West, and particularly with the United States.

But there is also a sort of cultural, less strategic, reason for that. And really this goes back to the whole project of Turkish modernization and the attempt of Turkey to join the West, to become a modern, secular nation. And I think there is still the belief that by siding with the United States and by aligning itself more generally along political and cultural lines with the Western world, that Turkey will declare its membership in the West, essentially, and show that it has left the Middle East behind. So, I think there is both kind of cultural and strategic factors there.

MS. WARD: Do you think this decision by the parliament was strictly a parliamentary decision, or did the military have something to do with it?

PROF. WAXMAN: Clearly, the military often hovers over many important decisions such as these, particularly concerning the deployment of foreign troops within the country. And in this respect, the meeting of the National Security Council, in which the military has a very important position, a few days ago, when they signaled their willingness to accede to the American request really was kind of the turning point, if you like, in the domestic debate there. It really signaled to Turkish parliamentarians that the military favors this. And on such major strategic and foreign policy issues, the military's wishes and the military's perspectives often sway the Turkish politicians. It's really hard to say no.

MS. WARD: Does Turkey worry, though, about losing its influence in the region by being so closely allied with the West?

PROF. WAXMAN: I think actually the Turkish concern on this was, at least according to their stated remarks, was the opposite, that if they didn't participate they would lose any chance of influencing the aftermath and the outcome of such a war. So, really, there was the belief that war was inevitable and unless they were participants in it, unless they kind of sided up with the United States, they would have no role in influencing what a post-Saddam Iraq might look like. And I think they were probably more concerned about the loss of influence from not joining the United States than any loss of influence from remaining on the sidelines.

MS. WARD: How far is Turkey willing to go as far as helping the United States?

PROF. WAXMAN: This really, it seems to me, is the one area of uncertainty. Although they have agreed to open up the bases and they have agreed now to the stationing of American troops, the exact number, or the range of troops, remains unclear. And this is really where the issue now lies. I mean, initial requests from the United States were for up to 80,000. More recently people have mentioned 10,000 to 15,000. But it seems likely that the final number will be in the region of 10,000 to 15,000. But, as yet, the precise number hasn't been declared. So, that's really, obviously, what remains to be seen, and how far they're willing to go in meeting the American demands.

VNN/DAB/MAR