Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)

DATE=1/31/03

TYPE=INTERVIEW TRANSCRIPT

TITLE=GARY SICK

NUMBER=3-514

BYLINE=TOM CROSBY

DATELINE=

INTERNET=

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HOST: The Bush administration indicates diplomatic efforts to end the Iraq standoff will continue for at least for a few more weeks. Toward that end President Bush says he would welcome it if Saddam Hussein would give up power in Iraq and go into exile. And he said he hopes international pressure will convince the Iraqi leader to leave the country.

But Middle East analysts such as Gary Sick say that is highly unlikely at this time. He is with the Middle East Institute at Columbia University in New York and he spoke with News Now's Tom Crosby.

MR. SICK: It is an opening that was open before, that Secretary of Defense (Donald) Rumsfeld basically said he would welcome the idea of Saddam taking advantage of a leave of absence and basically stopping this process (preparations for war). And other people have suggested the same thing. We've had a lot of talk, though not much of anything else as far as I can see, from a number of Arab states who have been talking up the idea but, as far as I can tell, haven't actually done anything about it. But it is an answer. It is one way to avoid it (war).

And I think nobody at this stage really expects Saddam Hussein to leap at the opportunity to go off into exile someplace. On the other hand, when it gets right down to the last minute, and if he sees that his chances have dwindled to virtually nothing and it's a matter of life and death and his regime is going to fall anyway, it is not beyond the realm of possibility that he might take advantage of an opportunity if there was an opportunity there. I'm not sure who is making exile available to him, but that could be an attractive proposition at some stage, but much closer, I think, to the actual moment of truth.

MR. CROSBY: But were he to take such an offer, Saddam would be giving up a lot, wouldn't he -- a number of palaces, a lot of luxuries?

MR. SICK: And saving his life, or saving himself from doing what (former Serbian President Slobodan) Milosevic is currently doing; that is, sitting in a cell in The Hague or some other such place, facing a war crimes tribunal, day after day after day, for a number of years, and facing the prospect of conviction for war crimes. So, that's not a very attractive proposition either.

MR. CROSBY: But there is some historic precedent, though, isn't there, for leaders going into exile in countries that will take them?

MR. SICK: That's right. (Former Uganda leader) Idi Amin is the most notable example, where he was a ruthless murderer who loved power, but who, when he saw that his days were numbered, decided that a quiet retirement to Saudi Arabia would be the better part of valor.

"Papa Doc" Duvalier (of Haiti), and any number of other leaders, have decided that rather than stay and fight to the death or watch their system crumble around them, that they would rather get out while the getting is good. So, it's not beyond the realm of possibility. I don't think anybody would put a very high probability on it, but it's not impossible.

HOST: Gary Sick of Columbia University's Middle East Institute. President Bush said Thursday that even if President Saddam gave up power, the goal of disarming Iraq of its weapons of mass destruction would remain the same.

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