Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)

DATE=1/29/03

TYPE=INTERVIEW TRANSCRIPT

TITLE=PITNEY/SOU

NUMBER=3-510

BYLINE=TOM CROSBY

DATELINE=WASHINGTON

INTERNET=

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HOST: Jack Pitney is a political scientist at Claremont-McKenna College in California and the author of "The Art of Political Warfare." He says that while the President put much emphasis on reinvigorating the economy...his emphasis on continuing the war on terrorism and removing Iraqi President Saddam Hussein from power will likely get the most attention from analysts in the days ahead. He spoke with News Now's Tom Crosby:

MR. PITNEY: Quantitatively the President spoke more about domestic policy, but the end of the speech, where he turned his focus to terrorism and the upcoming conflict with Iraq, is obviously what is going to get the most attention.

MR. CROSBY: Does it surprise you at all that he was speaking directly to the Iraqi people in his State of the Union address?

MR. PITNEY: Well, part of the administration's strategy is to undermine Saddam Hussein by undermining his political support. And obviously the State of the Union was one venue for him to do that.

MR. CROSBY: Did he succeed in using the venue as well as he might have, do you think?

MR. PITNEY: Well, I think it is part of an overall strategy. There will be other aspects of it in the weeks ahead. And I think, very clearly, that people in Iraq got the message.

MR. CROSBY: The President, of course, was challenged by the Democratic leaders in the Congress to talk about terrorism, and indeed he did, outlining some programs that he would like to see enacted. And he laid it out in some detail, didn't he?

MR. PITNEY: That's right, and particularly talking about responses to potential bioterrorism in the United States. So, there was quite a bit of attention in the speech to the domestic requirements of homeland security. And this follows, of course, the establishment of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security. So, I think the President is going to get praise for the amount of attention he gave to it.

MR. CROSBY: But is he going to get praise when it comes time to go ahead with his proposals for increasing the defense budget?

MR. PITNEY: Well, obviously, at a time of deficits, increases in defense spending means there are increases in the deficit or cuts in something else. And, as usual, there will be arguments about the dollar amounts. And that will be a subject of considerable deliberation in the months ahead.

MR. CROSBY: On the domestic front, of course, he talked a great deal about reinvigorating the economy, and that's going to be a major issue confronting him in the next year or so, isn't it?

MR. PITNEY: Yes, the economy is not in recession but it's not growing nearly as strongly as most Americans would like. And unemployment is, by the standards of many Americans, way too high. And this presents a political opportunity for the Democrats to present alternative programs that they argue would do more to create jobs and increase prosperity.

MR. CROSBY: But if the United States finds itself on a war footing with Iraq, of course there is an idea that sometimes is afoot in the land that a war helps the economy. Is that likely to occur, do you think?

MR. PITNEY: In the long run, the removal of a major terrorist and military threat in the region will do much to stabilize the world economy. But in the short run, actually a war might have hurtful economic effects. Certainly the stock market dives every time there are war jitters, which tends to indicate that the financial community believes that war is not necessarily good for the economy.

MR. CROSBY: But oftentimes we see a pickup in the defense industries, where more people begin to be employed, at least for the term of the war.

MR. PITNEY: Certainly in certain sectors of the economy, those sectors that are dependent on military spending certainly will see an increase. That part of it is for sure.

MR. CROSBY: You, of course, are out in California. You look north to Washington State. And that's where we heard from, in the Democratic response, Washington State Governor Gary Locke responded to the President. What do you make of his response? He was largely supportive, wasn't he, of the President's efforts to remove Iraqi President Saddam Hussein from power, largely supportive of the President's efforts to combat terrorism?

MR. PITNEY: Sure. The support was hesitant a little, because he emphasized working with Congress and working with the United Nations. So, he wasn't giving unqualified support to a unilateral U.S. military response. And so the speechwriter was fairly careful to draw that kind of distinction. And of course, when it came to domestic policy, he was far more critical.

HOST: Jack Pitney, a political scientist at Claremont-McKenna College and author of "The Art of Political Warfare."

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