Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)

DATE=01/29/2003

TYPE=ON THE LINE

NUMBER=1-01267 SHORT #1

TITLE=WILL SADDAM GO?

INTERNET=Yes

EDITOR=OFFICE OF POLICY 619-0037

CONTENT= INSERTS IN DALET AND AUDIO SERVICES

THEME: UP, HOLD UNDER AND FADE

Host: This is On the Line and I'm --------. Regional leaders are reported to be trying to convince Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein to go into exile. According to news reports, officials from Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Turkey hope that Saddam Hussein will step down if he is offered immunity from prosecution for war crimes and crimes against humanity.

Marius Deeb is a professor of Middle East studies affiliated with Johns Hopkins University. He doubts the effort to get Saddam Hussein to accept exile is serious because every one knows how dangerous he is.

Deeb: "They [Arab leaders] want to be on record that they're not really for war. You know, they tried everything and it didn't work. But of course, there's also something difficult about Saddam getting immunity somewhere in the Arab world, because he could be troublesome there. Even if he goes to Saudi Arabia, he could start a revolt or overthrow the regime.

Host: Robert Hunter is former U-S ambassador to NATO and now a senior advisor at the RAND corporation. He says Saddam is not willing to go into exile.

Hunter: It's not so much finding a country that would accept him, it's finding a country he would accept. He could consider that, as soon as he left power, he'd be a marked man and he wouldn't be able to buy a life insurance policy anywhere. I don't think he's going to do it. If he were to do it, it would be with America knocking on the gates of Baghdad.

Host: Defense analyst David Isby says that Arab leaders have failed to do what they could in confronting Iraq.

Isby: No one likes to see foreign armed forces in the region, especially in a region that is associated with imperialism. And also it shows, by having the United States do it, that the people in the region couldn't do it themselves. And to a large extent, this is a last ditch attempt by the people in the region to show that they are relevant to dealing with a regional problem regionally.

Host: Most observers say there is little expectation that regional leaders will be able to convince Saddam Hussein to go. For On the Line, I'm -------------.