Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)

DATE=1/29/03

TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT

TITLE=BUSH ANALYSIS

NUMBER=5-53060

BYLINE=JIM MALONE

DATELINE=WASHINGTON

INTERNET=YES

CONTENT=

VOICED AT:

INTRO: There are some early indications that President Bush's State of Union Address has bolstered support among the American public for a possible war with Iraq. But as National Correspondent Jim Malone reports, the president is likely to have a tougher time swaying international opinion.

TEXT: The Gallup organization reports that a new poll taken after the president spoke found that 67-percent of those surveyed who watched the speech believed that the president had made a convincing case for military action against Iraq. That was up from only 47-percent before the speech.

Among those impressed with the Mr. Bush's address was this woman from Minnesota:

/// WOMAN ACT ///

I think we have to do something about Saddam. I think we should have done it 12 years ago and we have let it hang on too long.

/// END ACT ///

Several political analysts are also giving the president credit for making an effective case against Iraq. Robert Lieber is a professor of government at Georgetown University here in Washington and a former advisor to several Democratic presidential candidates:

/// LIEBER ACT ///

And what was striking about the president's talk was both the passion and detail with which he called to the attention of the American people just how monstrous, dangerous, brutal Saddam is. I think the president has gone a long way to answering the concerns of Americans who ask why Saddam matters.

/// END ACT ///

Of course, not everyone agrees with that assessment. Phil Steiger of Minneapolis had this reaction to the president's speech on CBS television:

/// STEIGER ACT ///

I do not think he came close to answering why we should send American men and women into harm's way and how that is going to make it better there.

/// END ACT ///

That is a view echoed by many Democrats in Congress. They continue to press the administration to explain why the threat posed by Saddam Hussein must be dealt with now.

Senate Democratic Leader Tom Daschle spoke on N-B-C's Today program:

/// DASCHLE ACT ///

We are just saying that before we commit lives, before we commit troops, before we commit the resources of the American people, we need to have a lot better evidence that that threat is more imminent and more direct to the United States than it is today.

/// END ACT ///

Opinion polls indicate that a majority of the public wants the United States to line up support at the United Nations and from U-S allies in advance of any military action against Iraq. But in his speech, the president left little doubt that, if necessary, he is willing to act without United Nations backing to disarm Saddam Hussein:

/// BUSH ACT ///

We will consult, but let there be no misunderstanding: If Saddam Hussein does not fully disarm, for the safety of our people, and for the peace of the world, we will lead a coalition to disarm him.

/// END ACT ///

While the president may have made headway with public opinion at home, political experts warn that he is likely to have less success in winning converts internationally.

Larry Sabato is a professor of government at the University of Virginia:

/// SABATO ACT ///

He understood that he was not going to change their minds and he made one of the most blunt declarations of unilateralism ever heard by an American president in modern times. This was more like (former President) Teddy Roosevelt. And it basically was, we would love to have you in the coalition, we would love if we could fight side by side. But if you can not be with us, at least come down to the docks and we wave as we sail off to war, because we are going.

/// END ACT ///

The next opportunity for the administration to shape domestic and international public opinion comes next Wednesday when Secretary of State Colin Powell will present more detailed information about Iraq's weapons programs to the U-N Security Council. (SIGNED)

NEB/JBM/RAE