Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)

DATE=1/27/03

TYPE=INTERVIEW TRANSCRIPT

TITLE=HOPKINSON IRAQ

NUMBER=3-507

BYLINE=PAT BODNER

DATELINE=WASHINGTON

INTERNET=

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HOST: Chief U-N weapons inspector Hans Blix says Iraq has not genuinely accepted the U-N demands of disarmament. Leaders of the U-N inspection team in Iraq delivered a much anticipated report to the Security Council in New York Monday on their search for banned weapons of mass destruction over the past 60 days. Mr. Blix said key issues remain unresolved, such as the whereabouts of thousands of chemical bombs and stocks of anthrax and other biological weapons. Iraqi Foreign Minister Naji Sabri insists that his government has cooperated fully with U-N inspections and met all of its obligations under Security Council resolutions. William Hopkinson is a security expert (and Associate Fellow) at the Royal Institute of International Affairs in London. He tells NewsNow's Pat Bodnar that the countdown to a possible U.S.-led war against Iraq is entering a critical phase.

MR. HOPKINSON: We haven't yet crossed the line of commitment to military action, but I think the framework within which decisions about that commitment will be taken is coming close.

MS. BODNAR: Iraq's Foreign Minister Naji Sabri defended Baghdad's actions and accused the U.S. and what he said was Washington's only ally, Britain, of unjustified aggression.

MR. HOPKINSON: Well, Iraq realizes there are divisions between the U.S. and the U.K. on the one hand and many other elements, including other Western Europeans, on the other. And they will try to exploit that. They will also appeal to China and Russia for other particular reasons. However, if you see this in perspective, one has to say that Iraq has got a long, long history of cheating, of having weapons of mass destruction programs and not coming clean to inspections and so on. So, one has to look at the U.S. attitude, the U.S. words, against that history.

I do not think that we have yet reached a stage where one can say the U.S. would be justified in going straight to war because it's clear that Saddam Hussein is not cooperating and that he is concealing weapons of mass destruction programs, but it is equally clear that unless there is great military pressure applied and the readiness to go to war shown, in the light of all his history, I don't think he would come clean.

MS. BODNAR: There has been talk about the need for the United States to come forward with some sort of a smoking gun. Secretary of State Colin Powell on Sunday, in Davos, Switzerland, again said that time is running out. And he also told an Italian newspaper that the United States has intelligence information showing Iraq maintains prohibited weapons. Is this evidence likely to be put forward, particularly as U.S. allies are calling for more time for the inspectors?

MR. HOPKINSON: It would depend on what the nature of the evidence is. If it comes from highly placed sources in the regime, there would obviously be strong arguments against doing it, because one would blow one's sources and not only would they suffer but the supply of information would be cut off. If it's gathered by technical means, it's possible that it might be put forward. Even if the United States put forward what is quite a convincing picture, any one component of that might be open to challenge.

MS. BODNAR: Meanwhile, there continue to be differences in the Security Council over the next steps on Iraq. I wonder if you could lay out some of the big challenges ahead.

MR. HOPKINSON: The big challenge is, first of all, will the United States get the Security Council to support military action if Saddam Hussein is said by Hans Blix to have failed to cooperate. In other words, will the United States be able to say to Russia and China, not to mention France and Germany, look, there is no hard evidence of his possession of weapons of mass destruction but the test was not whether we could find hard evidence but whether he would open up his country and his records and his processes and his military sites so that we could actually carry out a proper audit and verification. (SIGNED)

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