Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)

DATE=1-23-03

TYPE=INTERVIEW

NUMBER=3-504

TITLE=SAYARI - TURKEY

BYLINE=REBECCA WARD

DATELINE=WASHINGTON

CONTENT=

DR. SAYARI: In the past, although this party is relatively new but it has its origins in the Islamist movement in Turkey, that movement has been quite strongly against the West and against the United States. They have changed their tune recently, but still obviously there are elements within that party which is in government that does not look with a great deal of enthusiasm to a war in Iraq. So, there is that concern.

I think a constituency of this party is definitely not in favor of a war but, at the same time, Turkey has had a very close relationship with the United States dating back 50 years or so now, and perhaps more. And in that sense, obviously they do not want to create too many problems for Washington. So, Turkey is really in a very difficult position on this issue.

MS. WARD: What will happen as far as who will make the decision? Will it be the Islamist-leaning government or would it be the military, the Turkish military?

DR. SAYARI: The Turkish military has thrown the ball to the government, much to the surprise of the government. Because I think when they came to power after the November 3rd election, their expectation was that this was going to be dealt with by the military. So, the military has thrown the ball back to the government, and ultimately it's going to be a decision that will be reached by the government, with an input from the military obviously.

MS. WARD: What do you suspect that decision will be? And let's suppose that the United States and Britain decide to go ahead with military action against Iraq without a U.N. resolution.

DR. SAYARI: My hunch is that Turkey will probably make a contribution, perhaps not as much as the United States has wanted, but already of course they have done quite a bit. There is a team of U.S. inspectors inspecting the bases in Turkey for potential use against Iraq. I think the question is the number of American troops that might be deployed in this northern front strategy. Initially the number that was circulating here in Washington was that there would be about 100,000 American troops that would be based in Turkey, and then they would go into Iraq. Turkey objected to this, saying that this was a very high number. And the latest figures are about 15,000. So, I think ultimately they might agree to that.

MS. WARD: And how does the rest of the region feel about the U.S. position on Iraq?

DR. SAYARI: I think all of them are reluctant to fully endorse the U.S. position but, at the same time, they know that they don't want to create a big problem for the U.S. So, ultimately, I'm sure that they will probably join the British-U.S. effort.

MS. WARD: Secretly, though, do you think that the region would be happy to be rid of Saddam Hussein?

DR. SAYARI: Yes, I think so. I mean, especially if it doesn't cost them much in terms of their own troops or instability or economic difficulties. I mean, there is no love for Saddam in Turkey at all. It's zero at this point. So, they would be happy if Iraq ended up with a new leadership.

MS. WARD: So, why is there so much opposition to a possible war with Iraq?

DR. SAYARI: I think it's being viewed as simply an overextension of American power. It's a kind of unilateralism, which is resented. I think if the United Nations had come up with a strong endorsement of toppling down Saddam you would not probably have seen this. But I think the perception is that this is something which the U.S. doing by itself. And the other perception I think is that the U.S. is doing it simply to control the energy resources, oil, in the Middle East. I think that perception is rather widespread. I don't think the message has gone out clearly that the U.S. policy is interested in things like democratization, human rights and others issues. I think the man on the street is listening to a different tune.

(End of interview.)

NEB/PT