Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)

DATE=01/20/2003

TYPE=ON THE LINE

NUMBER=1-01263 SHORT #1

TITLE=HOW LIKELY IS WAR IN IRAQ?

INTERNET=Yes

EDITOR=OFFICE OF POLICY 619-0037

CONTENT= INSERTS IN DALET AND AUDIO SERVICES

THEME: UP, HOLD UNDER AND FADE

Host: This is On the Line, and I'm --------. United Nations weapons inspectors are in Iraq looking for evidence that Saddam Hussein's regime has weapons of mass destruction. At the same time, the United States and its allies are preparing for possible military action against the Saddam Hussein regime. Tens of thousands of U-S troops are on their way to the region and the build-up is expected to peak in the coming weeks. Jon Wolfsthal is deputy director of the non-proliferation project at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He says it will be easier to get a U-N resolution authorizing military action if the inspections show clearly that Iraq is hiding weapons of mass destruction.

Wolfsthal: President Bush and Tony Blair, the British prime minister, have said that while they would prefer a U-N resolution, they're prepared to go, if necessary, without that resolution. But the key things that would tip the balance and enable the U-N to produce a new resolution would clearly be hard evidence that there are weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. If you find a chemical weapons plant or trove of chemical weapons or a biological weapons lab, long-range ballistic missiles, anything where you could show a picture and explain to somebody that this is a clear violation, I think you'd very quickly get countries that would then fall in line.

Host: Gary Schmitt is executive director of the Project for the New American Century. He says that Iraq may well succeed in keeping its prohibited weapons hidden from inspectors.

Schmitt: Baghdad has had a long program of hiding precisely the weapons that we're trying to find. They know how to do it. They've done it in the past. They've had ten years of experience of learning how to do it. And it's just a very difficult task for two-hundred men to go around places the size of France and discover, you know, a mobile biological lab.

Host: Even if Iraq is able to hide its weapons from the inspectors, Jon Wolfsthal says the U-S will have the support of crucial allies.

Wolfsthal: Things definitely get simpler for the United States military planning if we get either a smoking gun in Iraq or a number of circumstances lead to a second resolution authorizing force from the United Nations. Without that, I think we'll have a lot of our allies go along with the United States plan. I think Saudi Arabia is going to let us use their bases, Kuwait is clearly on board, a lot of our allies are prepared if we push them to say yes.

Host: Gary Schmitt and John Wolfsthal say the U-S will not want to wait much past March to begin military action because, come the summer, the Iraqi desert would be too hot for fighting. For On the Line, I'm -------------.