21 January 2003
Decision to Avert War Lies with Baghdad, Myers Says
(Chairman of Joint Chiefs also discusses Afghanistan, Turkey) (3770) War against Iraq absolutely can be averted, and the decision to do so lies with the government in Baghdad, General Richard Myers, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, said in Rome January 18. "Nobody that I know, no rational person that I know or anybody that I associate with, wants war," he said during a meeting with journalists at the American Embassy. "But the key to that is the Iraqi regime itself. They hold the keys to whether or not there's going to be conflict or not." Myers strongly rejected the suggestion that the stepped-up deployment of U.S. forces to the Persian Gulf region means a conflict is inevitable. "At any time this is totally reversible," he said, "there is no 'point of no return' in my mind." The U.S. general went on to explain that the military deployments are important for backing up the diplomatic efforts taking place through the United Nations and elsewhere to force Iraq to disarm. "This is not a regime that probably would react to a UN mandate without some pressure to do so, and that's of course part of the intent," he said. Myers spent a few minutes discussing Afghanistan and the progress made in reconstructing civil society and improving the lives of the Afghan people. He noted the work of the interim government and of non-governmental organizations and said the situation is stable in three-fourths of the country. At the same time, however, he cautioned that parts of Afghanistan remain relatively dangerous, particularly three eastern provinces along the border with Pakistan. Myers' trip to Europe included visits to Germany, Belgium and Turkey, as well as to Italy. During the press availability in Rome, he thanked Italy for its "great cooperation on many fronts" and its "superb" contribution to the war on terrorism. He also expressed appreciation for the support that Turkey provides "on a regular basis," especially for hosting U.S. and British air forces involved in Operation Northern Watch over Iraq. Regarding Turkish cooperation in possible further military action against Iraq, Myers said he would not get into the specifics of any requests, saying only that "you have a preferred plan and of course you have back-ups and you have back-ups to the back-ups." Following is a transcript of his remarks, provided by the U.S. Embassy in Rome: (begin transcript) PRESS AVAILABILITY WITH GENERAL RICHARD MYERS, CHAIRMAN, U.S. JOINT CHIEFS OF STAFF U.S. Embassy Rome, Italy January 18, 2003 GENERAL MYERS: I'm on a trip that started in Stuttgart, Germany, to participate in the change of command of the Supreme Allied Commander Europe, General Ralston, giving the command to General Jones from the U.S. Marine Corps. Then I went to Berlin for a ceremony for General Ralston, over to Mons, Belgium that night for the ceremony the next day there at SHAPE headquarters, for again this change of command on the SHAPE side, the NATO side, and then flew down to Rome yesterday and we've been hosted in a very generous way by my counterpart here, General Mosca Moschini, for the last 24 hours. I will leave here this afternoon, essentially right after this press conference, and I will go up to Vicenza. I'll be doing a troop visit up there with some of our United States Army folks that are stationed there. And from there I'll go to Turkey and return home Monday. Our discussions here were over a wide range of issues. As you know, the United States and Italy have a very broad strategic and operational relationship, and in some cases down to the tactical level in the Balkans and so forth, and for that matter, Afghanistan. And so we talked about a wide variety of issues. I think with that, I'll open it up to questions and take your questions. QUESTION: You're going to Turkey tomorrow, where Western diplomats have been saying that the United States is considering cutting back a demand, or request -- whatever you want to call it -- to base tens of thousands of U.S. soldiers there for an operation that would open up a northern front against Iraq, and the reports are that the request would be greatly scaled back, perhaps as low as 15-20 thousand troops, because Turkish public opinion doesn't seem to be in favor of having a very large U.S. troop presence there. Could you tell us if that's true? Is indeed the U.S. revising its strategy that it had hoped to work out with Turkey, and if so, what specifically will you ask the Turks to agree to tomorrow, Monday, sorry? GEN. MEYERS: A couple of points. One is that I'm not going to get into the operational details of numbers or anything like that. I just don't do that. I don't think it helps to inform anybody but adversaries, particularly, so I'd stay away from that. This trip to Turkey, by the way, was scheduled I think, it's been on the books now for a couple of months. So it's not anything that has been generated by any kind of current situation or any of the reporting that you're reading. In fact, it was just a couple of months ago that General Ozkok, my counterpart there, the chief of the Turkish General Staff, visited the United States. We hosted him. He was at the house for dinner, so this is part of that continuing dialogue we've had not only on the military side but in diplomatic channels as well. And we'll talk about a wide variety of things, and I'm sure we'll wind up talking about Turkey's support for various military options. Certainly there's been no decision on the United States' part for conflict in Iraq, but we'll talk about those sorts of topics. Q: Could I ask you something about a possible Italian role in a possible major operation against Saddam Hussein's regime? In the last weeks, a letter from I think President Bush came here to the different heads of states and government asking what possible contribution the different European or NATO countries could give. What is your opinion? What could the European allies do and specifically what could Italy do? GEN. MEYERS: Okay, on the first point, on what NATO could do, I think that was discussed at the Atlantic Council, the political side of NATO, earlier this week. There were some proposals from the United States that were put on the table on some of the measures that could be taken by NATO if there was conflict in Iraq. And there was no decision made, as you know. That will be addressed here in the next week and the weeks to come. In terms of Italy's specific contribution, I think that's something that we would prefer in the United States that the Italian government characterize. But I will tell you that in general on the war on terrorism Italy's contribution has been absolutely superb. As you know, there's been great cooperation on many fronts. One is at sea as we try to ensure that terrorists don't have freedom of movement in some of the major sea-lanes, in terms of personnel, leadership in particular or weapons, those sorts of things. So we've had great cooperation there. We've had cooperation in that the Italians have been embedded in the security assistance force that's in Kabul right now. I mean it's several hundred personnel that's been part of that. And of course they're about ready to send a rather substantial number of troops - the Alpine or Alpini battalion - into Afghanistan. And all that is very much appreciated and I think very necessary. If I can take just a minute on Afghanistan. Afghanistan, since the end of the conflict, there's been an awful lot of progress in that country. We have now an interim administration that is developing very effective communications and relationships with the various regions in that country. Over 2 million refugees or internally displaced people have returned back to Afghanistan. Non-governmental organizations, private organizations are in many more places than they were before the war, or certainly during the conflict. Now they're back in. I do not think they anticipate any sort of humanitarian crisis with food this winter. In probably three-quarters of the country things are very stable. In fact, in military terms we're thinking about what we call a phase four, which is stability operations, which is much more focused on reconstruction than it is on military operations. Military operations is phase three. Phase four would be the reconstruction piece, and then there still is that part of the country up against the Pakistani border where there are pockets of people, either Taliban, Al Qaeda or other factional fighters that don't like the interim administration very much, or they don't like the coalition forces very much, and they're still significant to the point that they have to be dealt with. That will be one of the things that the Alpini group will be working towards, as well as doing some reconstruction at the same time. We've done that. I don't know how many wells, schoolrooms we've reconditioned, or medical facilities that we've reconditioned for the Afghan people. So in some parts of the country it's still relatively dangerous. On the other hand, probably the prospects in Afghanistan have never been brighter for the men, women and children, women and children, in particular, who are back in schools and so forth. So if we have any hope that Afghanistan will continue to be a stable country, where people can start to prosper in the ways that we would all want our children to prosper, then we need to stay with that activity for some time to come and we really appreciate the Italians' work in that. Q: Can you confirm that disbanded Taliban are regrouping just in the area where Italian Alpini are going to be deployed? GEN. MEYERS: As I said, that eastern area of Afghanistan, and primarily three provinces right up against the Pakistani border, is the most unstable part of that particular country. We have U.S. forces and coalition forces deployed in that region and of course it's proposed that the Italian group will go as well. So, they'll be in the area that requires a little more stability before we feel we can provide the sorts of services that non-governmental organizations, private organizations that eventually can get in there and do it. The first thing you have to have for them to come in, although they have many courageous people in these non-governmental organizations and private organizations, but before they all come in en masse, you have to have a very secure and stable situation on the ground. That's what the forces are in there to do, and the Italians will be a part of that. Q: I would like to ask you one very short question. Is there still a hope that this war can be averted? GEN. MEYERS: That's an excellent question and the answer is absolutely yes. Nobody that I know, no rational person that I know or anybody that I associate with, wants war. But the key to that is the Iraqi regime itself. They hold the keys to whether or not there's going to be conflict or not. The UN Resolution 1441 that was voted on in the UN 15 to So it's up to the regime to decide that's the right course of action. Some of what you see going on in terms of U.S. deployments of forces to the region is to back up the diplomatic efforts that are going on through the UN and other ways, to try to convince the Iraqi regime that they must disarm. If you didn't have that pressure, I think a normal person would wonder, but why would they do that because for 10 years they haven't done that, and before that they just invaded Kuwait and before that they started a war with Iran? In the last couple of decades they've used chemical weapons on their neighbors and on their own population. So this is not a regime that probably would react to a UN mandate without some pressure to do so, and that's of course part of the intent. But, yes we hope, I mean, I very seriously hope, that we can avoid conflict. That's nobody's first choice. Q: The same question put another way really. I've got two questions: the first one is: Are we closer now to a conflict with Iraq then we were a few days ago? GEN. MEYERS: In my view, no. I don't think so, and this is really a political question not a military question because, like in Italy, I think, these kinds of decisions are taken at the political level, not with the military leadership, that's for sure. But, it's similar to a question I was asked the other day at a press conference -- is this deployment of force and the momentum that seems to be building, is it inevitable that this conflict is going to happen sometime in the future? And my answer is absolutely not, at any time this is totally reversible, there is no point of no return, as I think someone said the other day, there is no point of no return in my mind. So, from a military viewpoint I can tell you, very matter of fact, that no, I don't think we are any closer today then we were two days ago. On the political front and through the United Nations, I do not have visibility into, and I don't think many people do, until Dr. Blix reports out on the 27th, what UNMOVIC is going to say on the 27th when they report back to the U.N. So, until then I wouldn't say that. Q: You mentioned Dr. Blix. He is reportedly preparing to ask the UN Security Council for more time to carry out these inspections. How is that going to complicate your military plan on the ground in the build-up opposing Iraq? GEN. MEYERS: And again, I don't know whether it is or not, I've heard the same reports, I don't know for sure. I know that the U.S. government is trying to cooperate with UNMOVIC as much as we can. We've provided lots of intelligence to the inspection team, we have set up the modalities and made available U-2 aircraft for air reconnaissance and I think UNMOVIC was very interested in that. They're still working through some of the details with the Iraqi government on the use of the U-2 over some of the sites and areas that they would like to use it. In terms of complicating the military situation, it really doesn't. What we have tried to build into our actions and our deployments, is enough flexibility that we don't impose artificial timelines or any other constraints. We want to maintain as much flexibility as we can, so the political leadership can use the military instrument of national power in a way that's the most flexible and the most useful to the political folks. So, I don't see any constraints, I think we'll be able to adapt, flex, to whatever the situation is. Q: Yesterday, Secretary of State Colin Powell was quoted as saying that he believes there will be a persuasive case at the end of the month against Iraq, he said if you're looking for proof of weapons of mass destruction I can show you pictures in the coming days, we'll make information available that confirms our impression and our stance. Do you have information about this and do you have the same expectations? GEN. MEYERS: Again, I'm not going to speculate. I think those are the kinds of discussions that you have to have from the Secretary of State or even from the Secretary of Defense, certainly not from the military. But, there's no doubt that Iraq still has chemical and biological weapons and a great interest in nuclear weapons. I'll just stand by Secretary Powell's statement, I don't think I want to add anything to that. I would think it was a good statement. Q: How do you imagine a war, if there will be a war, in terms of time? In other words, how long do you imagine a war, in terms of weeks, months? GEN. MEYERS: That's a good question. Clearly, I have some idea in my own mind how this might play out, and some of the senior military folks as well. It's not one of those things that you can know for certain, though. I mean there's no way to know for certain how a potential conflict, and again let me just reiterate that, there's certainly no decision to do that. But there's no way to know how it might play out. There are lots of unknowns in there. How hard will the Iraqi regular army divisions fight? Will biological or chemical weapons be used either on adversary forces or their own population, which would certainly have an impact that you would have to deal with, other humanitarian issues that would be of great concern early on that you would have to deal with that might make things go a little bit slower than you perhaps had planned. So first of all I don't think we can state with any sort of precision exactly how long it might be and if I could give you my own opinion, I think it's better left unsaid because I certainly don't want the Iraqi regime to read my remarks and try to read some sort of strategy into this. I'd prefer to let that, if we're asked to go to conflict, play out unknown to the regime. I would say this. As you prepare military plans, of course, you must assume worst case, it has to be one of your planning assumptions. But you also have to be ready to take advantage of any success you might have and rapidly bring things to a conclusion, so we're trying to structure ourselves for those eventualities, as we would in any potential conflict. Q: How crucial is it to have access to bases in Turkey for your plans? GEN. MEYERS: Well, again we've got a great ally in Turkey that has provided a lot of support in the war on terrorism in general, and of course they're hosting a considerable number of U.S. and British Air Forces right now that are participating in our Operation Northern Watch. Just because of the geography it's a strategic position, I guess, for all of NATO, for that matter. And I'm just going to avoid getting into the specifics of any requests and how critical we view it. You always have back-ups to any preferred plan, you have a preferred plan and of course you have back-ups and you have back-ups to the back-ups. So I just want to say that I appreciate the support that Turkey provides us on a regular basis, and Italy for that matter as well. The cooperation we've had with the Italian military has just been superb for many years. I first started coming to Italy before some of you were born. 1968 I think was my first time here. When I was stationed in Germany we used to bring our aircraft down here, either for exercises or sometimes just for a weekend to enjoy Italy. And then we'd come down on leave, I've been here on military business several times since. So this relationship goes on, but I think since the threat of terrorism became so great, it really threatens in essence our way of life. They would like to just absolutely threaten the way and the values that I think we share in many respects. I think most of our core values are very similar in the U.S. and Italy, and they would like to destroy the confidence that enables us to live in the kind of way that we want to live. So we're very thankful for the Italian support. We'll be very thankful for the Turkish support, and I'm convinced they'll be good partners and allies as we go forward on this. Q: Just to clarify. When the American government says that January 27 time is over, what does it mean? What will happen after January 27? GEN. MEYERS: I have not seen that statement. I have not heard that. I don't know what the source of that is. I can't tell you what that means. I'm not sure of any deadlines that have been laid out there. I know of course that the 27th is when UNMOVIC reports out of their interim report and people will just have to wait and see. And that's clearly for our Secretary of State and your foreign minister and other folks to figure out what that really means. Q: It's not a deadline? GEN. MEYERS: It's never been portrayed to me as a deadline, no, not at all. Q: Back to Afghanistan. A few weeks before, Hekhmatyar started officially the Jihad against the foreign forces. Where is Hekhmatyar located, near the Iranian border like before or [has] he moved inside Afghanistan or the Pakistani border? GEN. MEYERS: Excellent question. And he's not just against the coalition forces, he's also opposed to Karzai and the interim administration that's set up, and is a very dangerous man, by the way. I could tell you where I think our intelligence thinks he's located, but if we knew for sure we'd be very actively going after him. I think he has been moving and is being very hard to follow. He's very difficult to track down because he is an enemy not only to our coalition forces, but like I said to the government itself, and has to be dealt with. I'd better not speculate. We normally know where he was, not where he is. He's very clever. But it's a good question. He's a very dangerous man, very dangerous. Thank you. (end transcript) (Distributed by the Office of International Information Programs, U.S. Department of State. Web site: http://usinfo.state.gov)
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