22 November 2003
Armitage Says U.S. Committed to Plan for Iraqi Sovereignty by 2004
Transitional assembly will lead to appointment of government officials
In consultation with the Iraqi Governing Council, the United States has now laid out a very explicit timeline, or roadmap, that will lead to full Iraqi sovereignty by June 2004, Deputy Secretary Richard Armitage said in a television interview on The Newshour with Jim Lehrer on November 21.
"There's no question that the majority of Iraqi people see us as liberators," Armitage said. "However, if we overstay our welcome, we'll be seen as occupiers. We're trying to thread that needle just right."
Armitage explained that, under the timeline, the Iraqi people will develop a fundamental law by February 28, following selection of representatives of a governing council from each of Iraq's 18 provinces. The council, in turn, will pick the members of a transitional assembly that will appoint an executive branch consisting of a prime minister and heads of the various central government ministries by June 2004.
On the subject of Iran's nuclear program, Armitage noted that the U.S. is continuing to work with Europeans and other members of the International Atomic Energy Agency to formulate "an appropriate response which will make it very clear what Iran did and which way that the international community thinks she needs to go in the future."
Armitage said the evidence is not yet conclusive regarding the deadly bombings in Turkey. He commented, "However, I personally am willing to take al-Qaida at their word; if they weren't involved, they certainly were an inspiration for this type of behavior."
Following is the transcript of Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage's interview on The Newshour with Jim Lehrer on November 21:
(begin transcript)
Department of State
Interview on The Newshour With Jim Lehrer
Richard L. Armitage
Deputy Secretary Interview by Margaret Warner
Washington, DC
November 21, 2003
MS. WARNER: Welcome, Secretary Armitage.
DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: Thank you, Ms. Warner.
MS. WARNER: Let's start with this worldwide terror alert that went out, I guess, last night but came out publicly today. What's behind it?
DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: Well, there's a lot of what the intelligence agencies would call "chatter" in the system. We've had multiple bombings here, these two terrible bombings in Istanbul in a week, we had a bombing in Kirkuk. There's a general feeling that the end of Ramadan might be a season in which some terrorists might like to inflict injury on us, so this is the better part of wisdom to button up as best we can.
MS. WARNER: How would you describe the level of the chatter, the intelligence chatter? I mean, is it at all similar to the intensity before 9/11, or a lot less than that?
DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: Well, I'm not sure that we knew as much before 9/ 11, so I don't think we had, you know, our sensors out in the same way. But it's a very significant amount of chatter, at least based on my experience.
MS. WARNER: All right, let's talk about Turkey. An anonymous caller claimed responsibility for these bombings, said it was part of a local group allied with, in conjunction with, al-Qaida. Does the U.S. have evidence that al-Qaida was involved?
DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: No, we don't have evidence yet. We are discussing these matters with our British and our Turkish friends. I, personally, am willing to take al-Qaida at their word; if they weren't involved, they certainly were an inspiration for this type of behavior. But I suspect, at the end of the day, we'll see their dirty hands in it.
MS. WARNER: Do you think, or does the U.S. think, it was timed to coincide with the President's, President Bush's, trip to Britain?
DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: I don't know. It seems to me that that's a possibility. There's no question that al-Qaida is a living, thinking and breathing enemy, so it's quite possible, but I have no reason to be able to have full confidence in that.
MS. WARNER: And, of course, Turkey is just the latest, as the President himself mentioned, Islamic country that's been cooperating with the U.S. in the attacks -- Saudi Arabia, Morocco, so on. Does it appear to you that al-Qaida is now in a position where it can really attack at will?
DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: Well, I don't know that I'd quite say that. I think al-Qaida is somewhat more weakened in that we know their finances are down a bit and that Usama bin Laden and Zawahiri are on the run. But certainly there are people who have decided that al-Qaida type methods are to their liking, they want to engage in this jihad, and they're going to do it. I'm not sure it's that every single attack is centrally directed, but certainly the inspiration is from al-Qaida.
MS. WARNER: Let's turn to Iraq. You were there just ten days ago.
DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: Right.
MS. WARNER: Shortly after you left, the U.S., which has been insisting previously that before turning over sovereignty they wanted the Iraqis to write a constitution and -- accepted by referendum and have elections, reversed course. Why?
DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: Well, I don't think I'd quite agree that we totally reversed course. You might want, if you want to use a football metaphor, you might say we had an audible at the line of scrimmage [quickly change the play]. Ambassador Bremer brought back to Washington many of the ideas that had been shared with him by the Iraqi Governing Council. He chewed them over with the President, who gave Ambassador Bremer his instructions. Jerry went back and devised a way forward, which has a fundamental law being provided by the Iraqis themselves and lays out a timetable culminating in June for a turnover of sovereignty.
This is not quite a reversal of course. We're on the horns of a bit of a dilemma. There's no question that the majority of Iraqi people see us as liberators; however, if we stay, overstay our welcome, we'll be seen as occupiers. We're trying to thread that needle just right.
MS. WARNER: What did you see when you were there that might have persuaded you that this was the right course to take, whether it was an audible or a reverse course, but that to do something different than was originally envisioned?
DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: Well, I also met with members of the Iraqi Governing Council, and it was clear to me that there were some differences of opinion about the way to go forward, and certain elements did not want to go forward without a full constitution having been written and decided upon. That is a very weighty undertaking and a very lengthy undertaking.
And the course that Ambassador Bremer and the President decided on now is one that, as I say, threads the needle, does provide for a fundamental law which will contain within it the basic sort of bill of rights, if you will, that will govern Iraq's behavior towards their own citizens. And it seems to me the better part of wisdom for us to have called this audible.
MS. WARNER: Would you say that people who describe this as following the Afghan model, that that's what it is -- explain it a little bit more to people who haven't been following it every day, how it works.
DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: Well, I think the Afghan model is not quite what I'd say. It is -- what's going to happen is, by February 28th, the Iraqis themselves will develop a fundamental law. Shortly thereafter, in 18 provinces of Iraq, people will be chosen to be part of a governing committee. They, in turn, will pick, based on population and representation population, representation -- people to take part in the transitional assembly. That transitional assembly will choose an executive branch, including a prime minister and the ministers for various ministries. And it is envisioned by the end of June, roughly, that that body would be sovereign in Iraq.
MS. WARNER: And so on June 30th, 2004, if this goes forward, the U.S. will no longer be in control?
DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: Well, we'll no longer be sovereign, but I think it's very unlikely that the sovereign Iraqi authority at that time will want the coalition forces to leave, lock, stock and barrel. I suspect there will be some lingering security concerns, though I've no question we'll be in a much better place then.
MS. WARNER: But, in other words, in terms of rebuilding, in terms of the oil industry, in terms of everything, say, that's non-military, the Iraqis will be running the show?
DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: Well, clearly it'll be our money, but by that time the $18.7 billion which Congress was kind enough to appropriate should be moving well into Iraqi infrastructure projects, and the Iraqis will, indeed, be running their own show.
MS. WARNER: Now, what will this do to the security picture? I mean, isn't it possible that it actually could make it worse, because it will look to the resistance as if the U.S. is cutting and running, or trying to bail out, and that the security situation could get, actually, worse?
DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: I think it's our judgment -- it certainly was the judgment of the Iraqi Governing Council -- that if we were very explicit and laid out a roadmap, if you will, towards sovereignty with a timeline associated with it, as I've already laid out to you tonight, that this would have the opposite effect; it would prove to people that we are intent on leaving, we don't want to stay, we don't want to take advantage of their resources, and, actually, it will work as a disincentive to possible recruits to join up on jihad.
To the extent there is an Afghan analogy here, Afghanistan has had an authority for a year and a half, almost two years now, that has been sovereign, and coalition forces have remained who continue the work of security. I think that may very well be the case in Iraq.
MS. WARNER: What is there -- how can the U.S. now guarantee that once the Iraqis fully take over, that the Shiites, who are the majority, 60 percent, with or without this fundamental law that I understand the U.S. is insisting be adopted beforehand, but nonetheless, once the U.S. cedes sovereignty, couldn't anything happen? Couldn't the Shiites essentially take over?
DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: Well, I think I cannot give you a guarantee of anything, including whether tomorrow we'll have a day in which we see the sun. I would say that if we are able to work through the next seven months and get participatory democratic processes going, and the entire population feel that they do have some political and economic enfranchisement, the possibilities of that kind of destabilization are dramatically lessened.
MS. WARNER: The U.S. has been working with a lot of these Shiite leaders, of course, over the last few months.
DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: Right.
MS. WARNER: What's your judgment about whether the Shiites in Iraq -- and this is an old question, but I'd like your new judgment -- on whether they want to establish an Iranian style theocracy or whether, in fact, they are more interested in establishing some sort of at least quasi-secular situation in which all the different ethnic groups have a say.
DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: I did travel to Babylon during my recent trip. It's now called Hilla, near the fabled city of Babylon. I talked to Shia clerics there, and it was quite clear to me that they are interested in an Islamic republic, one that does have, or does allow for everyone to practice his or her religion, and they're not interested in the Iranian model. In fact, I found a fair amount of antipathy between Arab Shia and Persian Shia, or towards the Persian Shia. But I would also say that there's some level of activity of the Iranians in trying to buy their way into madrassas and things of that nature in southern Iraq.
MS. WARNER: Finally, on Iran and its nuclear program, the IAEA, the Atomic Energy Agency, is now deliberating, of course, in Vienna over what to do. Is the U.S. still pushing to have the IAEA declare that Iran is in violation and refer this to the Security Council?
DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: Well, what our position is, clearly, no one would say that Iran wasn't in violation. She's admitted her past transgressions, and Dr. ElBaradei and his colleagues on the IAEA have said as much publicly.
We're looking for an appropriate response. We're working with the Europeans and other members of the Board of Governors to try to have an appropriate response which will make it very clear what Iran did and which way that the international community thinks she needs to go in the future.
MS. WARNER: What's your reading of why the Europeans have not agreed with the U.S. fully on this?
DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: Well, I think, like any diplomatic endeavor, it takes a long time to get full agreement, particularly when you've got so many members who have so many opinions. I would prefer to use a term that we haven't yet reached agreement, rather than do not agree. We're still continuing these discussions. There's movement on all sides as we fashion the appropriate response.
MS. WARNER: Do you think that the failure to find weapons of mass destruction in Iraq has, in any way, undercut the U.S. ability to push hard in the case of Iran?
DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: No, quite the contrary. It was the U.S. who was proven to be quite correct, standing up against the Iranian program, against those who said, "Oh, Iran is just acting in a benign way and of course they don't have a program."
Now, faced with the admissions of the Iranians themselves, I think that both our intelligence agencies and our political judgments are validated.
MS. WARNER: Secretary Armitage, thanks so much.
DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: Thanks so much to yourself.
(end transcript)
(Distributed by the Bureau of International Information Programs, U.S. Department of State. Web site: http://usinfo.state.gov)
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