Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)

DATE=04/29/2003

TYPE=ON THE LINE

NUMBER=1-01320

TITLE=IRAQ AND IRAN

INTERNET=Yes

EDITOR=OFFICE OF POLICY 619-0038

CONTENT=

THEME: UP, HOLD UNDER AND FADE

Host: Will Iraq be the next Iran? Next, On the Line.

[music]

Host: Some three-hundred Iraqis representing the country's various ethnic, religious and political factions met in Baghdad to lay the groundwork for a transitional Iraqi government. The U-S organized the meeting, which will be followed in a month by a conference in which Iraqis will choose leaders to run their interim government. There has been concern that some Shiite leaders backed by the clerical rulers of Iran would try to undermine these steps toward democracy in Iraq. U-S Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld said, "A vocal minority clamoring to transform Iraq in Iran's image will not be permitted to do so. We will not allow the Iraqi people's democratic transition to be hijacked by those who might wish to instill another form of dictatorship." The major Iran-backed group, the Supreme Council for the Islamic revolution in Iraq, have threatened to boycott the U-S-sponsored meeting in Baghdad. But in the end the Supreme Council did send representatives to the talks. Is Iran trying to promote a Shiite theocracy in Iraq? I'll ask my guests: Corine Hegland, a correspondent for The National Journal magazine; Riva Levinson, spokesperson for the Iraqi National Congress; and joining us on telephone from London, Alireza Nourizadeh, director of the Center for Arab-Iranian studies. Welcome and thanks for joining us today. Corine Hegland, how successful was the meeting in Baghdad?

Hegland: As far as a preliminary step meeting -- getting everybody around the table to discuss back and forth, meet one another, all the various factions -- it was extremely successful. What long-term effect it will have is still to be seen.

Host: Riva Levinson, how do you perceive the meeting in Baghdad?

Levinson: I agree with Corine, I think that it was very successful, particularly because all of the representative parties did participate and I think what's going to make it even more successful is that the U-S is now also allowing the Iraqi political process to move forward, which is the process that was started in London and then [in the Northern Iraqi town of ] Salhaddin, of the Iraqi leadership council. So you'll have a U-S-Iraqi consultation and you'll have an Iraqi consultation amongst themselves. And that together will give you, I believe at the end of the day, a successful interim authority within that one month's time.

Host: Alireza Nourizadeh, are you there by phone?

Nourizadeh: Yes and I think the presence of people like Hojat al-Islam Hussain Assader and also Hojat al-islam Qazwini who are representing the moderate Shiite, moderate way of thinking and also they believe in a way in secularism and so their presence was encouraging for me. Because since Mr. Abdul Majid al-Khoei was killed, I was very worried. I couldn't see anybody who can replace him. But now, these two particular persons, prominent clergymen, with their presence they are giving assurances in a way that things aren't going to be as bad as some people think.

Host: Tell us really quickly, Mr. Nourizadeh, who Mr. Khoei was who was killed and what that meant.

Nourizadeh: Yes. Mr. Abdul Majid al-Khoei was the son of the Grand Ayatollah [Seyyid] Abdulqasim [Musawi] al-Khoei, who was the leader of Shiites for almost thirty years. And his father represented a sort of school which believes that in order to keep the religion pure and prevent it from getting involved in something as dirty as politics, the clergymen should stay away from politics and they have to play the role of advisor, give advice to the rulers. Abdul Majid Khoei, who actually was brought up, spent part of his life in Britain and studied here and he knew the modern literature and religious studies and philosophy and he was such a great person to talk to. He went back to Iraq in order to prevent people like Mr. [Muhammad Baqr al-] Hakim in Iran and his followers to get into Najaf. And he wanted actually to show that the Shiite clergymen, people like him are not looking, at least for themselves, in the political spectrum. But they would like to play the role of advisor.

Host: Corine Hegland, when Mr. al-Khoei was killed in the grand mosque, there was a lot of concern that this was the leading edge of what could become a tremendous religious violence. How has that played out?

Hegland: It's still playing out. There hasn't been religious violence following through on it at all, quite to the contrary, in the power vacuum that emerged in many parts of the country after Saddam's power was lessened, it was clerics in many cases who distributed guns, who distributed people to keep order and keep looting [from happening and make the area] secure. What sort of struggles will emerge among the clerics? With al-Khoei murdered, you're left with at least two competing factions. You have [Moktada al-] Sadr with the longest-standing connections within Iraq and then Hakim who is originally from Iraq, but has been in Iran and very closely allied with the government there for the last twenty years.

Host: And he's the leader of the Supreme Council?

Hegland: The Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, exactly. The state of relationship between those two and their followers is very unclear. There's a lot of murky -- a lot of jockeying and a lot of cooperation as well.

Host: Riva Levinson, there had been a lot of talk of major Shiite groups boycotting talks and not being involved in this process of moving toward a transitional government. Do you believe now that the trend is toward the Shiite groups being actively involved in this process?

Levinson: I think so. I'm going to go back and state with this process that was started in London, where there were 350 delegates that elected sixty-five and then they went to Salhaddin in March and then they elected a leadership council. SCIRI's Mr. al-Hakim is on that leadership council. His people participated in a meeting yesterday and they'll also participate in what I'm calling the Iraqi political process, which is the reconvening of this leadership council, meeting and taking from that meeting and bringing in what everyone's calling are these "internals" -- I mean, that's the pundit word for the people who stayed and suffered under Saddam's brutality. And so I think that if SCIRI is a part and continues to be part of this leadership council and you bring in other legitimate political players and political actors, I think you'll be able to pull it together. And I think that there needs to be a healthy distance -- there should be American consultation with Iraqis but there must be Iraqi consultation amongst themselves. And I think that's how you deal with some of the inferences that are surely coming from neighboring states with their own interests.

Host: Mr. Nourizadeh, do the rulers in Iran see the prospects for democracy in Iraq as a threat?

Nourizadeh: Not all of them. Actually the so-called reformists in Iran, they welcome the changes in Iraq. And although they couldn't express themselves because for almost three weeks, the Iranian radio and television were broadcasting Saddam Hussein propaganda and [Iraqi information minister] Mr. [Mohammed Al] Sahhaf became their star. But, you know, then gradually the reformists started to say that what's happening in Iraq is in our interests. And we have to welcome it. And one of them, Mr. Mortiza Marviha who is a very well known writer. He wrote a beautiful article and said animosity towards the United States is something that has been imported to Iran or exported from Russia to Iran. We never had such a bad relationship between the United States. If we go back to our history and whatever they say about the 1953 coup against Dr. [Mohammad] Mossadegh, if you look at it with a little bit more fairness, you would realize it is not the Americans who actually plotted. It was Britain and they brought the Americans with themselves. We suffered at the end of the British and Ottoman Empire much more than we suffered by the Americans. The Americans never killed our people. Why should we be that much against America? This is something which the Marxist-Leninist movement, the leftists, they put it in our minds. And then there are discussions now in Iran, in the Parliament, in the press, they are saying that the method of taking this sort of meaningless stance against the United States in Iraq, it's better for us to go and cooperate. And we shouldn't forget that it was Americans who got rid of the Taleban, of our main enemy, and then of Saddam Hussein, our second enemy. So, therefore, now we see and hear the voice of logic and wisdom from the reformists, while the unelected minority in Iran, they are worried about their future.

Host: Corine Hegland, we've heard a lot about exiles from Iraq that have been living in London or in the U-S and their role in the process, but there are also a number of Shiite clerics who have been in Iran for decades. And they're returning to Iraq as well. But, interestingly there was an article in the New York Times that was saying that the clerics who have been living in Iran aren't necessarily that interested in bringing with them an Iranian-style regime. One such cleric was Hamam Hamoudi who told the New York Times, "We do not want an Islamic state like Iran. But the Shiites are sixty percent of the population and want to be part of the government after years of suppression." How is that playing out, the clerics coming back from Iran and their experience of clerical rule in Iran, in this process of moving toward democracy in Iraq?

Hegland: Right now, I don't think anyone knows how anything is playing out. Islamic politics within Iraq for the last thirty years at least have been very tightly circumscribed by their relationship to a secular state. Now that that secular state is gone -- now that there is freedom of political action, freedom of political mobilization, freedom of organization -- what form that will take, nobody knows. And so, it's not clear how much currency the returning clerics have and whether their relationship to the state, which as you stated, with regard to not seeking an Islamic-based state, but a state with an Islamic flavor. It's not clear what that will look like or how that will play out without Saddam forcing that sort of theology on them.

Host: Well, we've seen some vivid examples of the liberation of Shiites in Iraq. One of the most vivid examples of this has been the return of religious pilgrimages for Shiites. We've got some video I'd like to play for you here, if we could see that. And this is video of the Shiite pilgrimage in Najaf. It shows what is a very vivid kind of march of pilgrimage happening, people flaying themselves and there have been some people who have looked at this and said, "This is an expression of anger toward the United States for having troops" and others who've said, "No, the Shiites are happy to have this opportunity to revisit their traditional expressions of religion." How are these expressions of Shiite religious fervor being experienced in Iraq?

Levinson: I can't remember now whether it's the former or the latter, but I believe that they are grateful for being liberated and for the first time in thirty-five years being able to take this religious pilgrimage. There was anti-Americanism in small pockets and in what I heard was maybe five percent of those who took the religious pilgrimage shouted anti-American slogans. And somebody made the comment to me that in this country [the United States], when we had anti-war protests, that those anti-war protests were no more reflective of American public opinion than those protests were captured by the cameras on the streets. I think while the war protests were going on, seventy-two or seventy-five percent of the American public supported that. And I guess I'm an optimist about the spirit of the Iraqi people and the fact that when they come together after thirty-five years of brutality, that they're going to support a democratic society. And I think if you look at the meeting in Nasiriyah and if you look at the meeting in Baghdad and you look at the expressions that came out of that, I mean, if there's broad-based support for a democratic secular state where power is devolved to the various regional levels, I think that's how I'd answer that question.

Host: Alireza Nourizadeh, how not only among Shiites in Iraq, but in the larger Shiite world is this return to an ability to express religious freedom being viewed?

Nourizadeh: It was fantastic to see these people after thirty years gathering and being free to express themselves, to show their emotions. That was fantastic and I don't think, even you know, in the wildest dream of the Shiites in Iraq they ever thought that there will be a day they go to Karbala, millions of them and they express themselves. So it's fantastic. And I'm quite okay with the reach of that in Iraq, especially in the cities like Karbala and Najaf. There is a very small minority who shouted "Death to America" or shouted "Yankee Go Home." And these people are the ones who are influenced by the Iranians. And by the way, three days ago I wrote a piece in Ashar al-Awsat, the Arabic main newspaper and I gave some details about the people who managed to get to Iraq from Iran. Among them people who never saw Iraq. They were born in Iran. They're actually speaking Persian better than Arabic. They went to Karbala and they raised all those slogans: "Death to America," which is familiar to our ears. And I think the majority of the Iraqis, Shiites, Sunni, Kurds, Assyrian and others, Christians, they all believe in one thing: Democracy. They want democracy. I participated in their meetings in London and other places and I know, even the people who were at each other in the past, they now feel that it's the time for them. This is the opportunity given to the Iraqis. And as Mr. Hussain Assader who is a prominent clergyman said it in the meeting on Monday, the Iraqis, they owe their freedom to the Americans. And this is a fact which the majority of the people, they believe in it.

Host: Corine Hegland, as the Shiite majority in Iraq will have a large role in any kind of democratic process in Iraq, are there any trends emerging as to whether this is likely to be a secular Shia influence on democracy in Iraq or whether it's likely to push towards an Iranian-style theocracy.

Hegland: The history of Shiite political philosophy within Iraq was predominantly secular. And it was not ruled by the clerics, like you have in Iran, but it was ruled by the state with the clerical council, which in the United States, you could perhaps compare to the Supreme Court --checking that the laws passed by the state do not contradict the Koran. That's the history within Iraq. Now, what that looks like over the next thirty days, sixty days, two years, four years, as they have a chance to determine for themselves what kind of state they want, I don't think anyone can predict right now. Certainly the historical trends point toward a predominantly secular state with some sort of role for religion within it. How that shapes up, I don't know.

Host: Riva Levinson, how much of this are we going to see when there's this transitional government elected by representatives a month's time from now.

Levinson: Can I make one point just to second on the comment that our previous colleague in London said, is that I think that the Iraqi people recognized that it was the United States that liberated them. And I think the majority of the people are very grateful to the United States. With respect to an Iranian-like theocracy in Iraq, I don't know if there's a historical example of any people that have willingly put a theocratic dictatorship in place when they have an opportunity for freedom. So again, I think we have to have confidence in those people that have suffered so much. And I think with respect to the Shiites, whether it's secular or it's religious, if you look at the history of these meetings, the Iraqi National Congress has all these groups represented, even if you look at the policies that have come from 1997, 1998 to 2002, 2003 there is unanimous support for this type of democratic secular state where religion has its place. But Iran is certainly not a model. I think at the end of the day Iraq will be a model for the Iranian people.

Host: Mr. Nourizadeh?

Nourizadeh: Absolutely. I quite agree. You know, as I said, the minority of unelected rulers in Iran, they are scared because they know if Iraq becomes a successful experience and the Iraqi people at the end of the day elect their own secular government, I'm sure -- I mean, look at the streets of Tehran, to Tehran University, we saw what happened in the previous years and we know that the Iranian people would grab the opportunity and they will follow the Iraqis.

Host: Mr. Nourizadeh, do you think that people in Iraq have any sense yet or will have any sense of the extent to which people in Iran are dissatisfied with the rule of the Shiite clerics there?

Nourizadeh: No. Unfortunately, you know, because of the war between Iran and Iraq, some people in Iran they were picturing Iraq in a different way. I'm sure the Iraqi people, they have the same feeling and they may just look at the election in Iran and they believe that we have an elective government, so it's good that we have such a government. But, as a whole, the Iraqi intelligentsia, the majority of them are from the Shiite community. And I know a lot of them, writers, poets, artists. I talked to them and they don't have any fear about the future of the country. And they all say when it's the time for elections the people would not elect clergymen to rule their country.

Host: Corine Hegland, we only have about thirty seconds left. What do you think the chances are of real democracy as opposed to one man, one vote, one time move to theocracy in Iraq?

Hegland: I think at the moment, with the opening up of everything in Iraq, everything has equal possibility. There is strong support for democracy in Iraq, strong interest in it. There is also an incredibly impoverished community, particularly outside Baghdad city that is looking desperately for any chance to get ahead. If people see a way into the process, if the democratic process allows them to vote, to have jobs, they'll be fine.

Host: I'm afraid that's all the time we have for today. I'd like to thank my guests, Corine Hegland of the National Journal; Riva Levinson of the Iraqi National Congress and joining us by phone from London, Alireza Nourizadeh of the Center for Arab-Iranian Studies. Before we go, I'd like to invite you to send us your questions or comments. You can e-mail them to Ontheline@ibb.gov

For On the Line, I'm Eric Felten.