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Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)

20 December 2002

"Iraq: The Decade After," by Senators Joe Biden and Chuck Hagel

(Op-ed from The Washington Post) (970)
(This byliner by Senator Joseph R. Biden Jr. Democrat-Delaware is
chairman and Senator Chuck Hagel Republican-Nebraska a senior member
of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, first appeared in the
Washington Post December 20, 2002 and is in the public domain. No
republication restrictions.)
(begin byliner)
Iraq: The Decade After
By Joseph R. Biden and Chuck Hagel
The United States will face enormous challenges in a post-Saddam
Hussein Iraq, as well as broad regional questions that must be
addressed. These are both matters that members of the Senate Foreign
Relations Committee have been focusing on for some time. During a
week-long trip to the region, we came away with a better understanding
of the possibilities and perils that lie ahead.
In northern Iraq we saw the extraordinary potential of Iraqis once
they are out from under Saddam Hussein's murderous hand. New
hospitals, schools, roads and lively media are testimony to the
determination of Iraqi Kurds and to the bravery of coalition air crews
patrolling the no-fly zone.
Just a few hours' drive from the oppressive rule in Baghdad, a freely
elected regional government and legislature (which we were honored to
address) are embarked on a path of clear-eyed realism. While
neighboring countries fear an independent Kurdistan, Kurdish leaders
appear committed to working together for a united Iraq. They realize
they could lose everything they have built in the past decade by
pursuing independence.
Although no one doubts our forces will prevail over Saddam Hussein's,
key regional leaders confirm what the Foreign Relations Committee
emphasized in its Iraq hearings last summer: The most challenging
phase will likely be the day after -- or, more accurately, the decade
after -- Saddam Hussein.
Once he is gone, expectations are high that coalition forces will
remain in large numbers to stabilize Iraq and support a civilian
administration. That presence will be necessary for several years,
given the vacuum there, which a divided Iraqi opposition will have
trouble filling and which some new Iraqi military strongman must not
fill. Various experts have testified that as many as 75,000 troops may
be necessary, at a cost of up to $20 billion a year. That does not
include the cost of the war itself, or the effort to rebuild Iraq.
Americans are largely unprepared for such an undertaking. President
Bush must make clear to the American people the scale of the
commitment.
The northern Iraqi city of Kirkuk is an example of the perils American
forces may encounter. It sits atop valuable oil fields and is home to
a mixed population of Arabs, Turkmen and Kurds. In recent years,
Saddam Hussein has expelled Turkmen and Kurds as part of an
"Arabization," or ethnic cleansing, campaign. We toured a refugee camp
housing 120,000 displaced people and heard countless stories of
brutality and the loss of loved ones. Kirkuk could become the Iraqi
version of Mitrovica, the volatile city in Kosovo where the U.N.-led
administration has faced the dilemma of forcibly resettling people
from various ethnic communities who have been evicted from their
homes.
This is one reason why we will need our allies to help rebuild Iraq.
Cementing a broad coalition today will keep the pressure on Hussein to
disarm, build legitimacy for the use of force if he refuses, reduce
the risks to our troops and spread the burden of securing and
reconstructing Iraq. Going it alone and imposing a U.S.-led military
government instead of a multinational civilian administration could
turn us from liberators into occupiers, fueling resentment throughout
the Arab world.
Iraq cannot be viewed in a vacuum. Disarming and stabilizing that
country will be all the more difficult because of the unsettled
regional environment, in particular the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
While it is essential that the United States aggressively pursue
Israeli-Palestinian peace on its own merits, doing so has ancillary
benefits for the disarmament of Iraq. Simply put, we will make it
easier for Arab governments to participate in, or at least support,
our actions in Iraq if they can show their people we are engaged in
the peace process.
Meetings with Israeli officials and Palestinian reformers led us to
believe new opportunities exist for American diplomacy. Recent polling
shows that nearly three-quarters of Israelis and Palestinians seek
reconciliation and a two-state solution. For the first time since the
violence began, a majority of Palestinians support a crackdown against
terrorism as part of a peace process. A large majority have no
confidence in Yasser Arafat.
The key is to empower Palestinian reformers and encourage Arab
moderates. President Bush should lose no time in publicly endorsing
the "road map" developed by the Quartet -- an informal group of
mediators on the Middle East from the United States, the United
Nations, the European Union and Russia. The road map provides for a
series of reciprocal steps to jump-start a renewed peace process. That
would give hope to Palestinian reformers and send a clear message to
the Arab world that the United States remains determined to pursue an
Israeli-Palestinian settlement even as we deal with Iraq.
Working on multiple fronts poses a difficult test for American
leadership, but there is no escaping the fact that we face several
related, interlocking crises in the region. As the bulwark of freedom
and democracy, the United States faces the need to disarm Saddam
Hussein and set the stage for a stable Iraq, win a protracted war on
terrorism and engage fully on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Working with our friends and allies, it is a challenge we can, and
must, meet.
(Senator Joseph R. Biden Jr. Democrat from Delaware is chairman and
Senator Chuck Hagel Republican from Nebraska a senior member of the
Senate Foreign Relations Committee.)
(end byliner)
(Distributed by the Office of International Information Programs, U.S.
Department of State. Web site: http://usinfo.state.gov)



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