Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)

DATE=December 19, 2002

TYPE=Dateline

NUMBER=7-37048

TITLE=Iraqi Opposition

BYLINE=Judith Latham

TELEPHONE=202-619-3464

DATELINE=Washington

EDITOR=Neal Lavon

CONTENT=

DISK: DATELINE THEME [PLAYED IN STUDIO, FADED UNDER DATELINE HOST VOICE OR PROGRAMMING MATERIAL]

HOST: Leaders of the Iraqi opposition concluded a contentious four-day conference in London on Tuesday with a nearly unified call for a democratic, federal, and parliamentary government. This new government would replace the regime of Iraq's leader Saddam Hussein. They also demanded that the United States allow Iraqis to take immediate control of their country if Saddam Hussein is driven from power. Today's Dateline focuses on some of the issues raised during the London conference. Here's Judith Latham.

JL: After four days of argument and discussion, more than 300 Iraqi delegates from a variety of opposition factions agreed to close ranks and form a 65-member "coordinating committee" that they hope will be the nucleus of a government to replace Saddam Hussein. The major opposition groups at the conference included representatives of the Iraqi National Congress, an umbrella group of Iraqi exiles headquartered in London; Iraq's majority Shi'a community, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, the Kurdish Democratic Party, a monarchist party, and defectors from Saddam Hussein's military.

Iraqi businessman Ahmad Chalabi, who heads the Iraqi National Congress, said that Iraqis don't want, quote, "a break in sovereignty in Iraq to be filled by non-Iraqis." He told conference delegates that Iraqis have been disappointed with past U-S actions, but he thinks things have now improved.

TAPE: CUT #1: CHALABI [FM DRUDGE]

"I regret to say the United States has let down the Iraqi people many times. But I am proud to say that President Bush has adopted fully the program of the Iraqi opposition."

JL: The London conference had strong U-S backing, and there were representatives at the opening session from the office of Vice-President Dick Cheney, the Defense Department, and the National Security Council. U-S officials have spoken of the potential need for a sustained presence in the country and perhaps even a military governor until a new Iraqi leadership can assume power. And they cautioned the conference delegates against creating any sort of provisional government or government-in-exile.

Conference speaker Abdul Aziz al-Hakim of the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution of Iraq warned the delegates against "letting foreigners meddle in a post-Saddam Hussein Iraq." Speaking through an interpreter, Mr. al-Hakim explained the challenge that the opposition leaders face.

TAPE: CUT #2: AL-HAKIM [FM DRUDGE]

"To take upon themselves the burdens of transition with formation of a coalition government that represents the Iraqi people, and its various political forces, and not to leave the door open to false alternatives or any intervention from foreign powers."

JL: There was much arguing over the make-up of the "coordinating committee" to plan Iraq's political future. The diverse factions meeting in London see membership on the committee as crucial because it is intended as a spring-board to a transitional government if and when Saddam Hussein is deposed. Conference leaders held frequent consultations with President Bush's special envoy to the Iraqi opposition, Zalmay Khalilzad, who helped mediate their disputes.

Toward the end of the conference, Ahmed Chalabi of the U-S-backed Iraqi National Congress said the international community should now topple Saddam Hussein because they supported him in the first place.

TAPE: CUT #3: CHALABI [FM DRUDGE]

"The Iraqi people have asked the international community for assistance. We believe that the international community participated in empowering Saddam Hussein so that he can suppress the Iraqi people. Now it is up to the international community to help the Iraqi people redress the balance and get rid of Saddam."

JL: (OPT) Mr. Chalabi said that the new 65-member coordinating committee will meet in the Kurdish-controlled region of northern Iraq around the 15th of January to choose its leadership.

TAPE: CUT #4: CHALABI [FM DRUDGE]

"During that meeting the committee will choose sub-committees and officers to organize itself through and during its meetings and this will make the committee effective and relevant to the momentous events that are going to happen soon." (END OPT)

JL: The conference also issued a final document laying out democratic principles for a future government in Iraq. It endorsed the adoption of a federal system, the establishment of a transitional national assembly, and a three-person sovereign council. The transitional period is to last no longer than two years. White House spokesman Ari Fleisher says the Bush administration "applauds" the work of the Iraqi conference as a group opposed to what he calls the "tyrannical regime in Baghdad."

TAPE: CUT #5: FLEISHER [FM STEARNS]

"The conference represents a strong statement of the aspiration of Iraqis inside Iraq and throughout the world for a better future. We support these aspirations, and we look forward to working together with all Iraqis to help achieve them."

JL: But underlying the conference's show of unity is growing tension among groups with a strong presence in Iraq such as the Kurds in the north, the Shi'a Muslims in the south, and opposition groups based outside the country such as the Iraqi National Congress. Former Assistant Secretary of State for Middle East Affairs Richard Murphy says that, although the conference may not have lived up to its "advanced billing," its value was more than "window dressing," as some critics have suggested.

TAPE: CUT #6: MURPHY [FM LATHAM]

"Its importance was that it did bring together a great assortment of Iraqi factions, from the Kurds, the Sunni, and the Shi'a. Although there was dissent expressed during the conference, they mapped out something of the road ahead they will have to walk to get their message across that there can be an effective successor to the regime of Saddam Hussein if and when the war takes place to remove him from office."

JL: Despite its unwieldy size, Ambassador Murphy says, the 65-member coordinating committee chosen by the delegates has a significant role to play, at least in the short term.

TAPE: CUT #7: MURPHY [FM LATHAM]

"There was a very caustic comment made by one of those present that, 'when you get 65 members on a committee, it's just large enough to be useless.' It does seem they have agreed to the adoption of a federal system of government, a transitional national assembly, and a three-person sovereign council. Now whether the individuals on that 65-member committee will be the nucleus and will contribute the personnel to the future assembly and sovereign council remains to be seen. I think the American position was to discourage attempts to create a government-in-exile because it would trigger animosities and rivalries even deeper than exist today between the various factions."

JL: For example, there has been considerable dispute over the future role of the leader of the Iraqi National Congress, Ahmed Chalabi. Ambassador Murphy acknowledges that Mr. Chalabi is, as he puts it, a "controversial figure."

TAPE: CUT #8: MURPHY [FM LATHAM]

"He has worked very hard to promote the Iraqi National Congress to persuade a sometimes hesitant American government that is itself divided about how to proceed in post-Saddam period. But he has had considerable appeal in the American Congress and to some in the Pentagon that he could put together a real opposition that would be at least a potential leadership in the future."

JL: Members of the Iraqi opposition let it be known at the London conference that what they would find unacceptable is an American military government similar to that established in Japan after the Second World War, Ambassador Murphy says.

TAPE: CUT #9: MURPHY [FM LATHAM]

"I think the American role is very much under discussion and debate within the administration. I don't believe there is a unified position in favor of an American military government in Iraq. That was a scenario that surfaced last September, and it certainly is one possible way of managing the predictably turbulent domestic situation in the immediate aftermath of a war. There is no question I think that there will be a lot of people once Saddam is gone and once the forces that have sustained him are dissolved, such as the special Republican Guard who will want revenge. And, if it is not managed very quickly to restore law and order, there is a danger of the situation slipping into chaos and anarchy, which will tremendously complicate whatever the Iraqis try to develop for their future government."

JL: Richard Murphy says that a United Nations government "with the power and authority to keep law and order" would be "ideal."

TAPE: CUT #10: MURPHY [FM LATHAM]

"I don't want to see America silhouetted as the sole responsible authority, even in the immediate aftermath of a war. But I recognize that may be inevitable that we are alone. But I don't think that is an agreed American policy and I don't believe that many Americans will be comfortable with that."

JL: Ambassador Murphy says he thinks an American military government in Iraq could be enormously "complicating" for future U-S policy in the Middle East.

TAPE: CUT #11: MURPHY [FM LATHAM]

"The whole issue of post-Saddam Iraq and the ripple effect of his removal from office on the region needs a lot more thought, time, and energy devoted to it."

JL: Richard Murphy adds that the next meeting of the Iraqi opposition is now planned for mid-January in northern Iraq, probably in the Kurdish capital of Erbil.

TAPE: CUT #12: MURPHY [FM LATHAM]

"I think the supposition is that an Erbil meeting would narrow the areas of disagreement, refine the thinking about the shape of a federal government and how the federation would be organized. In London there was considerable talk about Iraqis having the right to govern themselves and that they would not be dictated to by the United States. But, I think the last thing America really wants is to dictate the shape of a future Iraq other than it be peaceful, democratic, and ready to live in peace with its neighbors."

JL: Ambassador Richard Murphy is a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York. On Tuesday, the Council along with the James A. Baker Institute at Rice University in Texas released a joint study on this subject. It warned that a "heavy American hand" would only convince the Iraqis, as well as the "rest of the world, that the operation against Iraq was undertaken for imperialist, rather than disarmament, purposes."

TAPE: MUSIC: "AGNUS DEI" FROM MOZART'S CORONATION MASS. (ESTABLISH 5 SECONDS, FADE, AND BRING UP AFTER SIGN-OFF).

The weeks ahead are likely to determine just what course the administration may take in Iraq and how "heavy" the American hand will be in an Iraq free of Saddam Hussein.

For Dateline, I'm Judith Latham.