Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)

DATE=12-16-02

TYPE=INTERVIEW

NUMBER=3-460

TITLE=MURHAF JOUEJATI

BYLINE=REBECCA WARD

DATELINE=WASHINGTON

CONTENT=

HOST: Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has discussed Iraq in talks with British Prime Minister Tony Blair in London and concluded that war with Baghdad can be avoided. The Syrian leader told reporters he sees good cooperation from the Iraqi government. Mr. Blair says Britain and Syria did not agree on how to deal with Iraq, but that he believes engagement with Syria is the right way toward a resolution.

Murhaf Jouejati (mor'-hahf zh-way'-zheh'-tee) is a scholar-in-residence for the Middle East Institute in Washington, D. C. He says President Assad's talks with Prime Minister Blair were important in that it was President Assad's first official state visit to Britain and helped clarify his position on Iraq.

MR. JOUEJATI: Syria is worried about a war in Iraq. It is particularly concerned with the potential of the fragmentation of Iraq into ethnic and sectarian statelets. And if that were to happen, it could mean the destabilization of the entire Middle East. The region I think does view Saddam Hussein as a threat, but it does not view it with the same intensity as do the United States and Britain. Assad, I think, thinks that Saddam Hussein is now too weak to be able to, by himself, destabilize the region. And so, therefore, although still a threat, he is not the threat that Washington and London make it out to be.

MS. WARD: What are Syria's concerns? You mentioned fragmentation; what do you mean by that? And how would that affect Syria?

MR. JOUEJATI: Although no one in the region likes Mr. Saddam Hussein and will not shed, I think, any tears when the man goes away, they regard him as strong enough to keep Iraq united. If there were to be a war, this might entice Turkey, for example, to extend its hand in the north of Iraq in order to preclude the establishment of a Kurdish state. That would be an aggrandizement of Turkey at the expense of a fellow Arab country; this is one. It would also be at the expense of Syrian security; this is two.

If there were the establishment of a Kurdish state, that would entice Syria's own Kurdish minority, which represents something like 10 percent of the population, for them to get ideas of self-determination and break away from Syria. And that clearly is a danger, from a Syrian perspective, to Syria.

Third, the Syrians do not like very much the question of regime change, because this would set a precedent in international relations in which a strong state, if it does not like another government, can change it at will. Also, Iraq in recent years has become a major trading partner for Syria. A war against Iraq would make that market cease. And so Syria's economy, which is stagnant, cannot sustain any further losses with the loss of its Iraqi market.

So, for all these reasons, I think President Assad, as his father, does not have much liking of Saddam Hussein. And certainly the case of Syria and Iraq is the case of classic geopolitical rivalry, but, nonetheless, war against Iraq would be far more costly to Syria than it would be beneficial.

MS. WARD: Do you think Syrian relations with the West have improved in the past few years? Is President Assad considered more moderate than his father?

MR. JOUEJATI: I think relations generally with the West have improved, first and foremost, because of the very intensive Syrian cooperation with the United States on the war against international terrorism; specifically on the war against al-Qaida. Syria has been very forthcoming in its cooperation with Washington. In addition to this, I think the Syrian President is consistently trying to send messages to Washington and to London -- obviously this is buttressed by his visit to London -- that he is interested in the further improvement of Syrian-Western relations.

More moderate than his father? I think this is a debatable question. The conditions that Syria holds for peace in the Middle East are an exact conformed copy to the demands of the late Haffez al-Assad. And that is the resumption of peace talks based on the point where Syria and Israel left off before the talks had been broken.

So, I do not think that the Syrian foreign policy under Bashar al-Assad is any different than that which his father had in place. The major difference now of course is this major cooperation between Syria and the United States against al-Qaida. (Signed)

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