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10 November 2002

Transcript: Powell Says U.N. Vote Not an Idle U.S. Threat

(Interview on CBS's Face the Nation November 10) (2650)
Secretary of State Colin Powell says Saddam Hussein should understand
that the newest U.N. Security Council resolution on Iraq "is not some
idle threat that has been issued by the United States, and this is not
some resolution to be ignored as he has all previous resolutions."
Interviewed November 10 on CBS Television's Face the Nation, Powell
said, "What makes this resolution different is the ... element:
serious consequences. And that's a nice term. But what it means is
force to disarm him."
"If I were Saddam Hussein," said Powell, "I would look, one, at the
resolution on Friday which showed that nobody came to his assistance
this time," referring to the Security Council's 15-0 vote to approve
resolution No. 1441. "And secondly, he knows that the United States
has been planning. He knows what we're doing. He can see ... now that
the whole international community is unified against him," he said.
If Saddam decides not to cooperate under the terms of the Security
Council resolution, then "if military action comes, the outcome is
certain -- of this I am absolutely sure -- the outcome is certain, the
regime will be destroyed, the regime will be defeated," Powell said.
The transcript of Powell's remarks follows:
(begin transcript)
U.S. Department of State
Secretary Colin L. Powell
Washington, DC
November 10, 2002
Interview on CBS's Face the Nation with Bob Schieffer and Gloria
Borger
MR. SCHIEFFER: Good morning again. And, as advertised, here is the
Secretary of State. Mr. Secretary, a big week for you. The U.N. passed
a very strong resolution. I guess the first question: Have you had any
reaction from Iraq at this point?
SECRETARY POWELL: Not yet. I understand that Saddam Hussein has called
the national assembly in to conference to begin to meet and consider
this. And the only quasi-official statement we've received is that
they would look at this resolution calmly. They should look it calmly,
they should look at it seriously, and they should comply.
MR. SCHIEFFER: What do you now feel that the United States has a right
to do? Do we need to go back to the United Nations at some point now
if they don't comply with these various deadlines that you've set up?
SECRETARY POWELL: If they don't comply, the resolution provides for
the Security Council to convene immediately and consider what should
be done. And the resolution also says Iraq can expect to face serious
consequences.
Now, while the Security Council is meeting once again in the presence
of this noncompliance, the United States will be participating in that
debate in the Security Council. But at no time have we given up our
authority. If we find that debate is going nowhere, if the U.N.
chooses not to act, we have not given up our authority to act with
like-minded nations who might wish to join us in such an action.
So we found a compromise where the United Nations gets the opportunity
to consider this violation again, this new material breach, and to
decide what the Security Council should do. But, at the same time, the
United States has not given up its ability to act if it believes it's
necessary to do so.
MR. SCHIEFFER: So let me just make sure I understand what you're
saying. And as I understand it, the last deadline they have to meet is
sometime in late February, around the 21st or so. If, sometime between
now and then, the United States feels that Iraq has violated this in
some way, made what you've called a material breach, we could, and
believe we have the right, to take military action at that point?
SECRETARY POWELL: We believe the first thing that would happen would
be it would go to the Security Council. We would bring it to the
Security Council if we saw that Iraq simply wasn't cooperating with
the inspectors.
Say they let the inspectors in; they provided us a declaration that
seems to be something we can accept. It remains to be seen whether
they will do that or not in 30 days. The inspectors go back in, but
Iraq is not cooperating with them. They are playing the same game they
played before.
Then we can say to the Security Council we need to get together and
talk about this. Or, Dr. Blix or Dr. ElBaradei of the IAEA --
International Atomic Energy Commission -- Dr. Blix of UNMOVIC [United
Nations Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission] -- the
inspectors -- can report to the Security Council under the terms of
the resolution that they are not doing what they are supposed to do,
in which case the U.N. Security Council can decide whether or not
action is required. At the same time we will participate in that
debate but also reserve our option of acting.
MR. SCHIEFFER: And not necessarily be bound by what the Security
Council might decide at that point?
SECRETARY POWELL: We are not bound. But, clearly, if the Security
Council acts, it acts with the force of international law. We will see
whether it chooses to do so or not.
MS. BORGER: Mr. Secretary, there are reports today that there's going
to be a first early test, and that is that the weapons inspectors are
going to say to Saddam Hussein, give us a comprehensive list of where
these weapons are, and then they are going to compare that list with
their own list. How long would that take?
SECRETARY POWELL: The resolution requires Iraq to come forward with
that declaration in 30 days. So 30 days from this past Friday, Iraq
has to come forward with a declaration listing everything called for
by the resolution.
MS. BORGER: So, if Saddam gives what you consider to be a false
declaration, would you consider that to be a material breach?
SECRETARY POWELL: The resolution says that if the declaration is
false, and if they're not complying -- and if the declaration is
false, they're not complying -- then that constitutes, in and of
itself, the very fact of that noncompliance is a material breach under
the terms of the resolution, at which point this material breach is
reported to the Council for the Council to decide what to do.
At that point, the United States will participate in the Council
discussions, but also retains the ultimate right, if it chooses to do
so at some point, to take action separately from the Council if the
Council does not act.
MS. BORGER: When you get down to these inspections, can you tell our
viewers and us exactly how these inspections are going to work --
unannounced, no notice, everywhere at the same time?
SECRETARY POWELL: We have gotten in this resolution a tough inspection
regime where Dr. Blix and Dr. ElBaradei can go wherever they have to
go, whenever they want to go, with little announcement. There has to
be some announcement, but it will be very short, that they are coming
so that there isn't --
MS. BORGER:  How short?
SECRETARY POWELL: Well, we're talking just a matter of hours. We're
not going to give him days to "cook the books" [i.e., falsify results]
once again. But at the same time, you have to let someone know you are
coming so that they are ready to receive you.
But it is not so much whether they catch somebody doing something as
it is: are the Iraqis finally cooperating. If they are cooperating,
the inspectors can do their job. If they are not cooperating, they can
inspect for 12 years and not get anywhere. And that is the big
difference in this resolution. The resolution says we are expecting
cooperation, and if there is no cooperation, that lack of cooperation
will be reported to the Council because the inspectors cannot get
their jobs done.
We are going to give Dr. Blix and Dr. ElBaradei all the support we
can, all the information we can, with respect to the things that they
should be looking at. I am confident, after a number of meetings with
both of these gentlemen, that they are thorough professionals; they
know what they have to do; they have to call it the way they see it.
Then the judgment is up to somebody else, the Security Council or the
United States and like-minded nations, as to whether or not because
the Iraqis are not complying, not cooperating, it is time to take
military action to remove this regime.
MR. SCHIEFFER: Mr. Secretary, what's your hunch right now? Do you
think that Saddam Hussein is going to comply with these rules, or are
you skeptical?
SECRETARY POWELL: I think it is such a sensitive moment, Bob, that I
would rather not toss out hunches. We will know soon enough what he is
going to do. His first opportunity to speak is between now and next
Friday. By next Friday, he is expected to say he accepts the
resolution.
Now, whether he accepts it or not, it became international law. It has
the force of law. And, in fact, he must accept it at the moment that
it was voted. But in order to get an early indication of whether he
plans to cooperate or he plans to play the same game he has played
before, the resolution called for him to provide an acceptance by next
Friday.
MR. SCHIEFFER:  Well, what if he doesn't?
SECRETARY POWELL: If he doesn't, then the Security Council will have
to sit and make a judgment about this early indication of
noncompliance.
MR. SCHIEFFER: Let me ask you about two leaks [that] mysteriously
appear[ed] in the major newspapers of America this morning, The New
York Times and The Washington Post, outlining the size of the force
that the United States is putting together. We're talking about a
quarter of a million men.
Can you put that on the record for us?  Is that true?
SECRETARY POWELL: No, I never talk about military plans, and
especially now that I'm no longer in the Pentagon. But when I was in
the Pentagon, I would not talk about military plans. There's a lot of
speculation in the press about what a plan might look like. Some of it
is informed speculation and some is not.
But one thing I would say is that, sure, the Pentagon is hard at work.
My military colleagues and their civilian leaders are working on
contingency plans. The one thing I am absolutely sure of is that the
plan that they come up with will do the job. The president has made it
clear that if we have to use military force, there will be no question
about the outcome. I know the kind of plan they are putting together,
I can assure you, but it is not the kind of thing I would discuss in
public.
MR. SCHIEFFER: But if you were Saddam Hussein and you picked up The
Washington Post and The New York Times this morning and you saw what
was there, how would you take that, if you were Saddam Hussein?
SECRETARY POWELL: If I were Saddam Hussein, I would take it with a
great deal of concern and seriousness, and understand that this is not
some idle threat that has been issued by the United States and this is
not some resolution to be ignored, as he has ignored all previous
resolutions.
What makes this resolution different is the third element that I have
spoken about many times, and I think on this show. The first element,
he is in breach; the second element, tough inspection regime to see
whether or not he is willing to comply by cooperation; the third
element, "serious consequences" -- that's a nice term, but what it
means is force to disarm him.
MR. SCHIEFFER: Let me ask you also this: If you were Saddam Hussein
and you saw the picture that mysteriously appeared last week of what
happened when that drone aircraft pretty much obliterated those
al-Qaeda officials, would you take that as something to mean that this
could happen to you, to Saddam Hussein?
SECRETARY POWELL: If I were Saddam Hussein, I would look at the
resolution of Friday which showed that nobody came to his assistance
this time. It was not like the last resolution four years ago where
Russia, China and France abstained. Everybody was there this time to
include the only Arab member of the Security Council, Syria. That is
the first thing he ought to look at.
And, secondly, he knows that the United States military has been
planning. He knows what we are doing. He can see what is going on in
the region. He can see now that the whole international community is
unified against him -- not just with a resolution of words but a
resolution of purpose, a resolution of action. Action, that will come
if he doesn't cooperate, in the form of military force either under a
U.N. umbrella or with the United States and like-minded nations acting
together.
MS. BORGER: Mr. Secretary, do you expect top military officials to
defect, and even help you discover where weapons may be stored?
SECRETARY POWELL: I don't know. I think it would be -- if it comes to
this, if it comes to a military action, we think that top military
officials of the Iraqi regime would be wise to defect, and might have
every incentive to defect because if military action comes, the
outcome is certain. Of this, I am absolutely sure. The outcome is
certain: the regime will be destroyed, the regime will be defeated.
These generals had better make a judgment as to which side of the wall
they want to be on when it is all over.
MS. BORGER: Do you expect that Saddam Hussein would fall from power
very quickly if there were a military action?
SECRETARY POWELL: One thing I have learned is that military action has
a dynamic of its own and it would be best not to predict what the
enemy will do. You should make a judgment as to what you are going to
do and make sure that we have the initiative. We will have the
initiative. What he may do or not do, that is up to him.
MR. SCHIEFFER: Do you think the United States, the people of the
United States, are ready to go to war?
SECRETARY POWELL: I think the people of the United States have come to
the understanding that this is a serious problem that has to be dealt
with. The polls last week were very instructive on this question. If
you had U.N. support for it, if it was the international community
speaking, then the American people are solidly in support of such
action. If it was just us acting unilaterally, then the support
dropped considerably. And I hope that with the vote on Friday, this
made it clear to the people of the world and to the people of the
United States that we are not alone in this. The international
community has come together.
This was a wonderful day for the United Nations. The Security Council
demonstrated its relevance. The Security Council demonstrated that
faced with a challenge, they were able to meet it and not walk away. I
am very proud not only of what our negotiating team did in New York
under Ambassador Negroponte and Ambassador Cunningham's leadership,
but the way all of my colleagues in the Security Council came together
to deal with this problem.
MR. SCHIEFFER: Mr. Secretary, thank you very much for joining us this
morning.
SECRETARY POWELL:  You're welcome, Bob.
(End transcript)
(Distributed by the Office of International Information Programs, U.S.
Department of State. Web site: http://usinfo.state.gov)