Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)

DATE=10/29/02

TYPE=INTERVIEW TRANSCRIPT

TITLE=DEKMEJIAN / IRAQ

NUMBER=3-404

BYLINE=FRANCES ALONZO

DATELINE=WASHINGTON

INTERNET=

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INTRO: President Bush has held talks at the White House with the chief United Nations weapons inspector -- Hans Blix -- as the U-N Security Council continues debating a U-S draft resolution on disarming Iraq. The draft U-S resolution mandates tough, new inspections and serious consequences if Iraq doesn't comply. Reuters news agency quotes Iraq's Trade Minister as saying the meeting between Mr. Bush and top U-N weapons inspectors is an attempt to interfere in the inspectors' work.

The White House Tuesday rejected Iraq's call for independent observers to accompany the weapons inspectors to Iraq. Richard Dekmejian is a political science professor at the University of Southern California. NewsNow's Frances Alonzo asked Professor Dekmejian, if this is a reasonable request from Iraq:

PROF. DEKMEJIAN: I can see why the Iraqis would want, and would have a right so to speak, to have independent observers who are not in any way connected to the United States. But under the U.N. resolutions, I think that they should accept the inspectors that are chosen by the United Nations Security Council.

Now, in the past of course, the Iraqis have pointed out, with some truth, that some of the inspectors under the United Nations have connections to the United States Government and our intelligence agencies. Now, that's understandable. So, if that can be prevented or minimized in the new U.N. inspection team, then it would be quite fair to have those in Iraq and for Iraq to accept them.

MS. ALONZO: What are the most important factors when considering a post-Saddam Iraq, in terms of U.S. relations with its allies and also in terms of the regional political situation?

PROF. DEKMEJIAN: That's a very explosive question. There are so many ramifications to that. There is the possibility of Iraq breaking up. There is the possibility of killings among the various groups, Kurds versus the Sunnis versus the Shiites versus the Turkomans, and the Christians, the smaller Christian community. There are possibilities of a war between Turkey and Iran over northern Kurdistan, because the Turks, as a price to get involved in an American-led war, they want the oil of Iraqi Kurdistan in Mosul and Kirkuk. And obviously Iran, and certainly Russia even, would object to that.

There is the possibility of breakup, where an independent Kurdistan is in the north. The Turks would reject that and so would the Iranians. A Shiite state in the south, where the majority of the population, the Shiite population, is 60 percent, that would be a threat to the Saudis and generally the Gulf kingdoms, who are our allies. And of course the worst kind of pullback would be a rise in Islamic fundamentalism and the militancy of an al-Qaida type of a response which would be much more serious than al-Qaida.

MS. ALONZO: Now, sir, should there be U.S. military action, how would the strategy differ from the Gulf War?

PROF. DEKMEJIAN: It could very well be that some external measures, some military force, especially bombing plus landing troops in response to rebellious, let's say, Shiites or the Kurds in the north, may indeed bring about a collapse of the Saddam regime. But I wouldn't put my money on it. I think that there is a 75 percent chance that it is going to be a drawn-out affair.

MS. ALONZO: What would Saddam do should there be a U.S. military action? How do you think he would react?

PROF. DEKMEJIAN: He would do his best to resist it and to draw the United States into the big cities. And if we sever his communications with the northern cities and the southern main city, Basra, then he is going to want to draw us into a battle for Baghdad. Now, if he is really cornered, then I have no doubt that he will use whatever pathological, but especially chemical, weapons he has. Because he has nothing to lose. And given his psychological makeup, once Saddam knows that he is going down, he will take down as much as he can with him. I have no doubt about that.

Richard Dekmejian is a political science professor at the University of Southern California.