Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)

DATE=10/11/02

TYPE=FOCUS

TITLE=POST-WAR IRAQ

NUMBER=8-006

BYLINE=MARY MOTTA

DATELINE=WASHINGTON

EDITOR=ED WARNER

CONTENT=

INTRO: The talk of war in Iraq is dominating the headlines. Yet little attention has been paid to what a post-war Iraq might be like. Iraqi opposition leaders are worried that the Bush administration is not thinking beyond the war to the problems that could follow. Mary Motta in Washington takes a closer look at some of these issues.

TEXT: The debate now among the military, experts and the public is why and when to go to war against Iraq. But Iraqi opponents of Saddam Hussein are already worrying about the complexity of problems they would have to face once he is gone.

Why do they want him out? Iraq is a nation of diverse ethnic identity. In order to maintain a unified Iraq, Saddam Hussein has had to crush their country's ethnic identities to centralize power.

But that brutal grip on power kept Iraq unified since Saddam Hussein came to power in 1979. What happens next when that central authority is gone is the challenge.

During a recent forum at Washington-based American Enterprise Institute, Iraqi opposition leaders in exile suggested Saddam Hussein's rise to power in part grew out of the need for a centralized authority stronger than the country's ethnic divisions.

Kanan Makiya is a scholar-in-residence at the Center for Middle Eastern Studies at Harvard University. He says a post-war Iraq should be a multi-ethnic, democratic state in which all Iraqis have a voice.

///MAKIYA ACT///

To guard against the resurgence of such abuse, Iraqis need to invent a concept of statehood that will give all religions in the country the opportunity to flourish once again.

///END ACT///

Richard Perle, a policy adviser for the Bush administration and a fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, argues that Iraq needs to employ what he calls sound democratic principles for all Iraqi people. But the first step, he says, is the removal of Saddam Hussein and his regime.

//PERLE ACT///

The only solution in Iraq is the substitution of the thugs who now run the place with the kinds of people you see at this table.

///END ACT///

Three ethnic groups dominate Iraq. The Sunnis in central Iraq -- of which Saddam is a member -- are concerned that their interests will be subordinated to the other ethnic groups. The Kurds in the oil-rich north will not easily accept less autonomy than they have enjoyed in the past decade. And the Shia's in the south -- the largest ethnic grouping -- will be jousting for more power after having been largely denied it under the Sunni regimes.

Most members of the Iraqi opposition outside Iraq agree that it is up to the Iraqi people, not outsiders, to decide their future. But some

critics fear the clashes among the ethnic communities will erupt if Saddam Hussein is overthrown.

Mideast analyst Warren Bass of the Middle East Studies Council in New York says ethnic infighting is inevitable once the regime falls. He predicts it also could cause considerable friction beyond Iraq's borders.

///BASS ACT///

I don't think that you can responsibly assume that this isn't going to be a problem. This could well turn somewhat nasty.

///END ACT///

///BEGIN OPT///

New York Times columnist Nicholas Kristof, who recently traveled to Iraq, argues that the toughest challenge ahead for the U-S is not overthrowing Saddam, but managing the resulting upheaval he predicts will follow for a decade afterward.

He says bringing democracy to Iraq means seizing power from the Sunni minority who dominate the army and government and giving it to the Shiitte majority. That could give Iran greater influence. The predominately Shiite country has maintained close ties to southern Iraqi cities with their heavy Shiite population.

///END OPT///

But analyst Richard Perle does not expect neighboring countries to meddle in Iraq's internal political affairs.

///PERLE ACT 2///

I think that is a demeaning ,condescending view of Arabs.

///END ACT///

Military analyst Michael O'Hanlon, of the Washington-based Brookings Institution, is not as optimistic that a post-war Iraq will be peaceful.

He says a prolonged war could put enormous pressure on Arab countries friendly to the United States, And that, he adds, could provoke unrest in the Arab world which could fuel more terrorist attacks on the United States. It could also wreak havoc on the global oil market. For Mr. O'Hanlon, the solution could be to keep U-S troops in Iraq for a long time as a stabilizing force. But the question is whether that would actually arouse more anti-U.S. unrest and terrorism.

///O'HANLON ACT///

If we go in, it has to be to the win war quickly and then be prepared to occupy and stabilize for an extended period of time.

///END ACT///

Iraqi opposition leaders say they are ready fully to embrace democratic principles, but some are concerned the United States may not be prepared to deal with what would follow the downfall of Saddam Hussein.

Iraqi analyst and opposition member Siyament Othman has investigated human rights violations in Arab countries for Amnesty International. He says that previous U.S. policies, especially the determination to maintain tough economic sanctions against Iraq, make the Iraqi people question the U.S. commitment to rebuilding the nation after the war.

///OTHMAN ACT///

I think it shouldn't come as a surprise to you that the Iraqis of all hues are both skeptical and apprehensive about U.S. commit to democracy in post-Saddam Iraq. After all, it's not long ago that it was official U.S. government policy to keep the Iraqi people locked in a cage with their tormentor.

///END ACT///

Rend Rahim Francke is executive director of the Iraqi Foundation, the opposition's human rights organization. She says the Bush administration is sometimes seen as working against a democratic vision of a post-war Iraq.

///FRANCKE ACT///

And one example that I will give is this extraordinary reluctance of the U.S. administration to endorse the formation of some kind of transitional authority that would be able to handle at least civilian affairs in Iraq on the day that Saddam falls.

///END ACT///

Analysts say Iraqis worry about the staying power of the U-S government after Saddam Hussein is gone. They raise concerns about Washington's long-term commitment to regional reconstruction efforts, pointing to its departure from Afghanistan shortly after the Russians were ousted.

Middle East Studies Council 's Warren Bass says some Iraqis also will be reluctant to take part in a U-S led transitional government for fear of being labeled a pawn of the American government.

///BASS ACT 2///

Iraqi leaders who are thinking about becoming part of this sort of democratic liberal capitalist diverse Iraq that the Bush

administration says it wants are going to have one big thing that makes them awfully nervous, which is Afghanistan where the administration has been very quick to try to get out of there, has not given as much support to Hamid Karzai's government as it could. And that has got to be an omen that really worries a lot of people who the Bush administration would like to have as its best friends in Iraq.

///END ACT///

Ahmad Chalabi, who heads the Iraqi National Congress -- an umbrella organization of several opposition movements -- is more optimistic that an oil-rich Iraq can pay for the necessary infrastructure to rebuild a post-Saddam nation.

///CHALABI ACT///

Iraq, with the assistance of the United States, must be able, to transform its underground oil wealth into readily available cash now. This can only be done through an international economic conference that is called by the United States to deal with the issues of sanctions reparations and Iraqi debt.

///END ACT///

In contrast, some analysts say the rush to control Iraq's oil fields will inevitably be linked to ethnic divisions. Already, Kurds in the north have voiced hopes of making Kirkuk at the heart of Iraq's oil resources the capital of their autonomous region.

Georgetown University professor Michael Hudson says there will be lots of politicking about how Iraqi revenues will be used and for what purposes. He believes the distribution of the wealth from the oil reserves will depend largely on how long the United States stays in Iraq after the war.

///HUDSON ACT///

We don't know how long an American sort of occupation would last, but if it lasts a long time then the question of oil production policies, of repair or upgrading of the infrastructure of the the disposition of Iraqi oil revenues presumably would be in the hands of an American General MacArthur.

///END ACT///

For now, President Bush is pushing on with his efforts to rally the support of the American public to go to war. But some analysts say his biggest challenge is still to come: dealing with the post-war Iraqi public.

For FOCUS, this is Mary Motta