Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)

DATE=09/13/02

TYPE=INTERVIEW TRANSCRIPT

TITLE=ROD LYON, UNIVERSITY OF QUEENSLAND, BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA.

NUMBER=3-344

BYLINE=REBECCA WARD

DATELINE=WASHINGTON

INTERNET=

/// Editors: This interview is available in Dalet under SOD/English News Now Interviews in the folder for today or yesterday ///

HOST: Among the many people listening to President Bush's U-N speech (Thursday) was Rod Lyon, who teaches international relations at the University of Queensland in Brisbane, Australia. Next week, Australia will begin a parliamentary debate on what role it would play in a possible U-S-led military attack against Iraq. While Prime Minister John Howard's administration has openly expressed support for President Bush's efforts to topple Saddam Hussein, Professor Lyon tells V-O-A's Rebecca Ward that Australian public reaction to Mr. Bush's speech has been measured:

MR. LYON: That's partly because the message he gives is a serious one, and it has serious consequences. And, I think, most Australians know that, at the end of the day, when push comes to shove, Australians would be at America's side in a conflict with Iraq. I think, it's also measured because, even if I go by some of the newspaper reporting today, including in the Melbourne Age for example, there is real doubt about whether an international inspection regime is going to be effective in doing the mission that we want it to do. And that simply goes on the experience that we've had in relation to UNSCOM (U-N Special Commission) with Iraq throughout the 1990's, that at every step Iraq prevaricated, and hid the evidence that UNSCOM was there to try and uncover, and impeded dismantlement of its weapons of mass destruction capabilities. So, I think, there is a sense in Australia that, while we would dearly love to find a peaceful solution to the problem that's now before us, I think, there is a certain sense of ominous overtone to the entire exercise, that this is a serious issue, with serious consequences, including for Australian soldiers.

Now, if we talk about the surrounding area, I'm probably less able to speak definitively on how Southeast Asians might view this. In Indonesia, I suspect, the entire thing is being approached extremely cautiously. And that's because Indonesia is the largest Muslim country in the world, and it does not want to see a situation arise in which there is military action against Iraq. And Indonesians have made clear that any such military action against Iraq would only inflame Islamic radicalism throughout the rest of the world. So, they are very cautious and very suspect about where the international agenda is headed.

Around the rest of Southeast Asia, I suspect there is a slightly more ready acceptance of the fact that something may need to be done. But there is, at least in Malaysia, I would think, a worry about the fact that the U-S may be pushing the agenda in a way that Malaysians would think is too unilateralist.

Thailand will be its usual accommodating self. And Singapore is doing its classic balance of power realpolitik approach to the issue.

MS. WARD: Prime Minister John Howard has been very supportive of President Bush. And I wonder if there is any kind of the same reaction going on in Australia as there is in Britain, where you have the government wholeheartedly supporting President Bush in his efforts to topple Saddam Hussein, while some of the media and other politicians are saying, hold on a moment.

MR. LYON: I think there is undoubtedly some of that, Rebecca. We know, certainly, the Democrats in the Australian Parliament, and there's got to be some shades of Labor Party opinion that mirror them, those people believe that preemption is a dangerous and nasty and unpleasant and immoral business.

There is a queasiness at the public level that certainly you don't get when you look at the reactions just of perhaps John Howard and (Foreign Minister) Alexander Downer, or Robert Hill, the defense minister. I think, the government is reasonably firmly on board for where Washington wants to go. And, in that sense, they probably have outpaced public opinion a little bit or perhaps even parliamentary opinion a little bit. And we will be able to sense that probably next week, when the government moves to have a sort of parliamentary debate on Iraq.

MS. WARD: How far is Australia, or the Australian government, willing to go, if indeed there is military action in Iraq? Will Australia be part of that military action, either logistically or actually taking part?

MR. LYON: Yes, I think it will be. And I would be firm in that judgment. I think ideally, Australia would want very much that that action have some sort of U-N legitimizing tag to it. But if push came to shove, at the end of the day, and we thought the U-N had failed in its mission, and we thought the U-N was something that has failed to rise to the occasion, I suspect, Australia might well be there anyway.

(End of interview.)

VNN/DAB/NEB/TW