Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)

DATE=9/9/02

TYPE=INTERVIEW TRANSCRIPT

TITLE=ZUNES / MYLROIE IRAQ

NUMBER=3-335

BYLINE=WARD/NORMAN

DATELINE=WASHINGTON

INTERNET=

////// EDITORS: THIS IS A TWO PART INTERVIEW; BOTH PARTS ARE FOUND IN DALET UNDER NEWS NOW/INTERVIEWS/05. THEY WERE RECORDED AND ASSEMBLED SEP 05. /////

HOST: The Bush administration has been actively courting support of U-S allies - as well as the international community as a whole - in its bid to drive out Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein. The government of British Prime Minister Tony Blair has already given its unqualified support to President Bush. But there are many yet to be persuaded.

Stephen Zunes is a politics professor at the University of San Francisco in the western state of California and the Middle East editor of the Foreign Policy in Focus project. He is opposed to military action against Iraq -- and charges that such a unilateral move on the part of the United States would be illegal. He also believes it's not necessary -- telling News Now's Rebecca Ward that even if Saddam Hussein has weapons of mass destruction, he won't necessarily use them.

MR. ZUNES: He certainly used them against the Kurds, innocent civilians, back in the 1980's, but that's basically because he was a coward. He would not use it against people who could strike back. Indeed, when he was up against the largest force ever assembled in operation Desert Storm, he made a very conscious choice not to use them, because he knew it would be suicidal.

The only thing I really trust about Saddam Hussein is that the one thing he cares about is his survival.

MS. WARD: What if he has nuclear weapons? In particular, that's what the real concern is.

MR. ZUNES: Nuclear weapons are very unlikely. As recently as three years ago, the International Atomic Energy Agency said that his nuclear program had been completely dismantled. And the embargo has made it very difficult to get the key component parts that were necessary to build his nuclear program in the 1980's. Most of that was from Western technology, as was his chemical and biological programs, for that matter.

MS. WARD: I think the theory is that he is purchasing components from Russia, from the black market more or less.

MR. ZUNES: This has been a scenario that has been going around ever since the Soviet Union collapsed. And, as a result, there have been some very strict safeguards around that sort of thing, particularly if there is any evidence of interest by Iraq or Libya or some of the states the United States and its allies consider particularly dangerous in this regard.

Frankly, I think this is yet another news leak by hawks in the administration to scare up this kind of support for a preemptive military action.

MS. WARD: But even if he doesn't have nuclear capability, or at least it's not on the level that could compete with some of the Western powers, why not rid the world of what President Bush calls an evildoer?

MR. ZUNES: I can't imagine any leader in the world I would rather see overthrown. The problem of course is that in launching a full-scale military action like this, it will end up in the deaths of many, many thousands of people, both American servicemen as well as Iraqis, both civilian and military. And the concern is the precedence that it would take. If the United States feels that unilaterally we can just take out a government, invade a country because we feel like it, not only does this go against the United Nations Charter but it could lead to international anarchy, and that would not be in anybody's interest.

HOST: University of San Francisco professor Stephen Zunes is the author of an upcoming book called "Tinderbox: US Middle East Policy and the Roots of Terrorism."

On the other side of the debate is Laurie Mylroie (PRON: MILL-roy), the author of "The War Against America: Saddam Hussein and the World Trade Center." She says the United States would be completely justified if it launched a military operation against Iraq. In a conversation with News Now's Steve Norman, Ms. Mylroie says those who say there is nothing to fear from Baghdad are ill-informed.

MS. MYLROIE: They're overlooking important information, information that is so widely known one almost has to wonder if they are willfully overlooking that information. But since 1995, when Saddam Hussein's son-in-law defected, it has been known that Iraq retained large quantities of proscribed conventional and biological agents. Iraqis acknowledged it -- they never turned it over to the weapons inspectors -- and that its nuclear program was ongoing.

Of course, since December 1998, which is nearly four years ago now, there haven't been any weapons inspectors there, so Iraq has been free to do whatever it possibly can regarding those weapons programs.

Now, regarding the possibility of Iraq's use of those weapons, it might well be that Iraq would not use those weapons in an open war of aggression, but what about the covert use of them? Iraq's biological program was very, very important to the Iraqis, and it was huge. They made expensive efforts to conceal it from the weapons inspectors. And if Iraq were to use biological agents covertly, it could kill many more people than died on September 11th. And how do you ever trace it to Iraq?

That is, I think, the most dangerous aspect of Iraq's unconventional weapons programs, the covert use of those weapons. But also there is another part to it. As the United States moves to take Saddam down, because he has been attacking the United States, including 9/11, then Saddam blackmails everyone by threatening to use the proscribed weapons Iraq has as he goes down.

MR. NORMAN: If the United States does decide to attack Iraq to oust Saddam Hussein, what kind of task will that be for Americans militarily or diplomatically, however it's taken out? Isn't it a fairly difficult endeavor?

MS. MYLROIE: I don't think it is difficult. I think bringing down Saddam will be very easy. The U.S. has overwhelming military power. We should be allied with the population. This is really a war to liberate Iraq. And working together with them, he can be overthrown quite readily.

The real danger is what he does as he goes down. That is a serious matter, and precautions have to be taken against it.

HOST: Laurie Mylroie is an expert on Iraq -- and the author of several books on Iraq and Saddam Hussein.

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