DATE=8/3/2000
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
TITLE=IRAQ-TURKEY
NUMBER=5-46784
BYLINE=YONCA POYRAZ DOGAN
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
NOT VOICED:
INTRO: Ten years after Iraq invaded Kuwait and
triggered the Gulf war, United Nations economic
sanctions against Baghdad are still in effect. But
the sanctions do not only affect Iraq. They have
indirect consequences throughout the region, notably
in neighboring Turkey. V-O-A's Yonca Poyraz Dogan
[PRON: 'YOHN-JA 'POY-RAHZ DO-'AHN] has the details:
TEXT: As a member of the international coalition
against Iraq during the Gulf war, Turkey played an
important role in helping to contain Saddam Hussein's
regime. But as Turkish officials point out, that role
has turned out to be costly.
Before the U-N sanctions against Baghdad, Turkey's
trade with Iraq was worth about two-point-five-billion
dollars a year. Since the sanctions were imposed a
decade ago, Turkey estimates it has lost about 30-
billion dollars in lost business with its neighbor.
There is unofficial trade between the two countries,
much of it petroleum smuggling, but officials have not
given any estimates of its worth.
Alan Makovsky, a senior analyst at the Washington
Institute for Near East Policy, said Turkey will
continue to suffer economically because of the
sanctions.
/// MAKOVSKY ACT ONE ///
There is a lot of frustration about what to do
about Saddam and there are no simple answers
about how to bring him down. But ending the
sanctions would in effect mean his full
rehabilitation and I really cannot imagine an
administration of Al Gore or George W. Bush
condoning that. I do think the United States
ought to recognize the special burden that
Turkey has had to bear. I think the United
States should find ways to be supportive of the
Turkish economy.
/// END ACT ///
Turkey's concerns are not only financial. The U-S
policy to support the northern Iraq's Kurdish
opposition also worries Turkey.
Mr. Makovsky, who was a political advisor in 1992 for
the joint U-S and Turkish campaign to deter Iraqi
attacks against northern Iraq, said Turkey's major
concern now is the same as it was after the Gulf War.
/// MAKOVSKY ACT TWO///
That is the fear that there will emerge either
an independent Kurdish state or (a) robustly
autonomous Kurdish entity. Turkey worries that
Turkish Kurds will be infected by Iraqi Kurdish
separatism.
/// END ACT ///
The United States does not support the idea of an
independent Kurdish nation. Washington also does not
want to antagonize its ally, Turkey. But Mr. Makovsky
says the Kurds are able to survive beyond Baghdad's
control in northern Iraq because of the U-S-led
Operation Northern Watch, which enforces so-called
"no-fly" zones to contain Saddam Hussein's military
operations in the area. The U-S and British planes
taking part in the operation are based at Turkey's
Incirlik Air Base.
Meanwhile, the U-S effort to unify northern Iraqi
Kurds has not been successful. The two leading Iraqi
Kurdish parties -- Massoud Barzani's Kurdistan
Democratic Party and Jalal Talabani's Patriotic Union
of Kurdistan -- remain separate and often hostile
groups.
Mr. Makovsky of the Institute for Near East Policy
says Turkey insists on maintaining Iraq's territorial
integrity to avoid Kurdish separatism.
/// MAKOVSKY ACT THREE ///
I don't think it's a secret that Turkey would
like to see the Kurds make some kind of a deal
with Saddam. Turkey would like to see a return
of central government control to northern Iraq.
But at the same time, Turkey knows that is a
result unacceptable to the U-S and the U-S is a
crucial ally of Turkey's.
/// END ACT ///
For now, Mr. Makovsky concludes, Turkey accepts the
U.S. goals.
On several occasions, Turkey launched military
operations in northern Iraq to prevent the Kurdish
separatist group, the P-K-K (Kurdistan Workers'
Party), from using the region as a base to attack
Turkey. This Turkish concern has been lessened with
last year's capture of the P-K-K leader, Abdullah
Ocalan.
However, Turkish leaders are still concerned about the
heavy economic burden created by international
sanctions against Iraq, especially for the largely
poor southeastern Turkey.
NEB/YPD/JP
03-Aug-2000 17:28 PM LOC (03-Aug-2000 2128 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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