DATE=2/29/2000
TYPE=CORRESPONDENT REPORT
TITLE=IRAQ OIL OUTPUT
NUMBER=2-259691
BYLINE=JON TKACH
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
INTERNET=YES
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: A former Iraqi oil official says Iraq has the
potential to drastically increase its oil output -
possibly glutting world markets. Weeks before OPEC
ministers meet to consider upping production to bring
down soaring oil prices, industry experts are weighing
the impact of that possibility. V-O-A's Jon Tkach
[kotch] reports.
TEXT: Fadhil Chalabi, a one-time OPEC under-secretary
general and former Iraqi oil official, says Iraq could
soon produce more than ten-percent of the world's
daily oil demand.
/// CHALABI ACT ///
This huge amount of oil would not take long to
be expanded. In five or six years it can reach
six million or seven million (barrels per day).
In a matter of eight years Iraq can reach eight
million.
/// END ACT ///
Mr. Chalabi told a private Washington conference on
Iraq's oil industry (Tuesday) that demands for hard
cash and investment following nearly eleven years of
international sanctions could convince Baghdad to sell
oil outside of OPEC - possibly leading to a drastic
increase in supply, and a consequent fall in oil
prices.
Mr. Chalabi also says current industrial growth around
the world will not demand as much oil as forecasters
believe - making the impact of any increase in Iraqi
oil output even greater.
But Ed Porter, of the American Petroleum Institute,
believes the oil forecasts are on the mark, and that
growing demand will absorb an increase from Iraq if it
is phased in slowly - say over ten years or so.
But, he also says Iraq has affected world markets in
the past by over-producing.
/// PORTER ACT ///
In fact in `98 when prices declined so rapidly,
a big portion of that decline was due to Iraq.
Their production from late `97 through the end
of `98 rose over a million barrels a day, which
was more than the world increase in demand
because of the slowdown in Asia.
/// END ACT ///
Mr. Porter says that because oil prices have
skyrocketed since then, Iraq's greatest threat now is
to stop producing as much oil - driving prices even
higher.
Iraq has already threatened to cut back oil production
if the United Nations continues to block the delivery
of spare parts Baghdad says it needs to maintain
production. The parts are currently being held up
because of fear they will be used for military
purposes.
Despite recent pressure to lift sanctions, the U-N
Security Council shows little indication of doing so
as Iraq continues to reject a return of international
arms inspectors. (signed)
NEB/JON/gm
29-Feb-2000 17:53 PM EDT (29-Feb-2000 2253 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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