DoD News Briefing
Thursday, December 23, 1999 1:35 p.m. EST
Presenter: Mr. Kenneth H. Bacon, ASD PA
.............
QOn Iraq, can you tell us when the last time there was an incident in either of the no-fly zones? Has there been --
MR. BACON: December 12th.
QDecember 12th? Was that in the North or the South?
MR. BACON: I believe it was in the South, but I'll have to double check that.
QIs there any evidence that Saddam Hussein is backing off or letting up in his public vow to try to shoot down an U.S. or British plane patrolling the zones?
MR. BACON: No, I don't think so. There has been a slow-down in -- well, two things: we've been through a period of poor weather, particularly in the North, and therefore we have been flying somewhat less often than normal. And that's really a function of poor weather, not of anything else. This is very weather-dependent, obviously. Two, Saddam Hussein, in the last few weeks, appears to have been somewhat less aggressive in challenging coalition aircraft policing the no-fly zones both in the North and the South.
I don't read a lot into this. I think there are two possible explanations, and I preface this -- these explanations by saying that I'm probably not the best person at figuring out why Saddam Hussein does what he does or why his forces do what they do. But I think the two explanations are:
One, it's Ramadan, and it would be reasonable to expect a slowdown in operations during Ramadan.
And two, obviously, Saddam Hussein has been following very closely the moves in the United Nations to restart the inspection regime. The Security Council has passed a resolution, 1284, to set up a new inspection regime in Iraq. So far Iraq has not -- has said it will not accept these new inspectors, but the U.N. is going ahead. The secretary general, operating with the Security Council, has to name a person to head that regime -- the inspection operation, which is called UNMOVIC I think -- and then the inspection team will have to be put together under the leadership, and an inspection routine will have to be worked out, and then they'll try to get back into Iraq.
There are some signs that in recent weeks Saddam Hussein has been concentrating more on defensive measures, rather than offensive measures; that he has pulled some of his surface-to-air missiles and other air-defense assets out of the no-fly zones closer to Baghdad and to Tikrit and other areas in central Iraq, in the so-called free-fly zone.
Why he's doing this is unclear at this time. It may be that he is preparing to provoke another confrontation with the U.N. These confrontations have been unsuccessful in the past and, I assume, would be unsuccessful in the future as well.
He has a choice now between cooperation and confrontation. Confrontation has not gotten him what he wanted. It might be time for him to try cooperation. But that will be a choice for Saddam Hussein and the government of Iraq to make in the coming weeks.
QCan we -- it was just --
MR. BACON: I'm sorry. I got this wrong.
The last incident in the North was on the 12th of December. The last incident in the South was on the 6th of December.
QI believe that after Operation Desert Fox last year, that the attempts -- the challenges to the no-fly zone enforcement, I think, began on the 28th of December, if I remember right, and so we're coming up on what will be a year of these efforts and the U.S. and British responses. Is it possible that we could get a year-end tally of, in this past year, or since December 28th of last year, how many strikes there have been in Iraq, in the North and South, over the last year? Some sort of breakdown in the North and South of perhaps how many no-fly zone incursions, violations, there were over that time?
MR. BACON: Well, I don't have all these figures at my fingertip --
Q (Inaudible.)
MR. BACON: -- but there have been over 400 assaults against coalition aircraft; 400 violations of the no-fly zones by the Iraqi troops. Over 400 in the last year. And it's precisely because of the more aggressive attacks against the coalition aircraft that the coalition has had to take defensive actions and to strike back against the Iraqi installations that are trying to shoot down coalition aircraft. There have been long periods of time when the aircraft have flown without challenge, and they have not, of course, attacked or responded to no challenge. But when they're challenged, they do respond to protect themselves.
QI was just wondering if you'd take the question to provide us some --
MR. BACON: I will. I will take it.
Q-- whatever precise figures we could get or however precise we can get them.
MR. BACON: Yup. I will do that.
QOver what period did you say that the Iraqis had consolidated an air defense into the central --
MR. BACON: Well, this is something that seems to have been going on. But I have to point out, there's been an ebb and flow of this since the Gulf War, and we see them alternately moving from offensive to more defensive postures. They never abandon offense entirely and they never abandon defense entirely, but it's a matter of emphasis. And sometimes we see greater emphasis on offense, and sometimes we see greater emphasis on defense.
Now, we seem to see the pendulum swinging toward the defensive side. I have no doubt that sometime it'll swing back toward the offensive side.
Bill?
.......
QThank you.
MR. BACON: You're welcome.
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http://www.defenselink.mil/news/Dec1999/t12231999_t1223asd.html
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