DATE=11/24/1999
TYPE=INTERVIEW
TITLE=IRAQ OIL EXPORTS
NUMBER=2-256500
BYLINE=MAHMOUD ZAWAWI
DATELINE=AMMAN
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: Mahmoud Zawawi of Voice of America in Amman
interviewed Dr. Walid Khadduri, Executive Editor of
the Middle East Economic Survey about Iraq's oil
exports.
TEXT:
Mahmoud Zawawi - Dr. Khadduri, do you expect Iraq's
recent decision to suspend its oil exports to affect
the present oil cuts by OPEC and other producers.
Dr. Walid Khadduri - I think we have to wait on this
issue because the Security Council Resolution is of
limited duration. It ends on December Fourth and I
think OPEC will stay put and not take any decision
during this period and the period following that ,
waiting to see market reaction. So, I think the OPEC
production cut agreement will continue irrespective of
the resolution approved by the Security Council.
Mahmoud Zawawi - Dr. Khadduri most oil producers are
in favor of extending the oil cuts agreement when it
expires next March. What is your view on the
situation.
Dr. Walid Khadduri - While most OPEC ministers have
announced that they would like to see the agreement
extended beyond March, I think one was to wait. Its
premature to really announce a decision now. They are
expressing their opinions and the reason they are
saying that is because they are worried about the
second quarter when demand usually is less than it is
in the first quarter. I think one has to wait for
market developments in the winter, and the level of
the stocks by the end of March and what is the level
of demand at the time of the meeting at the end of
March. I think its premature to really make a
judgement.
Mahmoud Zawawi - Do you expect to present cooperation
among OPEC and non-OPEC members to continue in the
future.
Dr. Walid Khaddini - All indications are that the
present cooperation is going to continue for the
simple reason that oil producers have benefitted a
lot. Don't forget that with a seven percent cut (in
production) for most of the OPEC countries they
realized an increase in revenue of around 120 or 130
percent within about a year. That is a very
significant development so I think they would like to
keep to the agreement. The problem is if prices get
out of hand (increase wildly) during the next few
weeks, then some countries may rethink their position
or maybe they would put more crude on the market.
Once again these are possibilities, I am not saying
they will happen. Precedents have shown this could
happen. We have to watch the winter carefully to see
what would happen.
NEB/MZ/PLM
NEB/WTW/
24-Nov-1999 06:22 AM EDT (24-Nov-1999 1122 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
.
|
NEWSLETTER
|
|
Join the GlobalSecurity.org mailing list
|
|
|
