IRAQ REBUILDING PROSCRIBED WEAPONS
Iraq NewsSEPTEMBER 7, 1999
By
Laurie Mylroie
The central focus of Iraq News is the tension between the
considerable, proscribed WMD capabilities that Iraq is holding on to and
its increasing stridency that it has complied with UNSCR 687 and it is
time to lift sanctions. If you wish to receive Iraq News by email, a service which includes full-text of news reports not archived here, send your request to Laurie Mylroie .
I. WHITE HOUSE REPORT ON IRAQI WMD DEVELOPMENT, AUG 25
II. IRAQ REBUILDING PROSCRIBED WEAPONS, WASH TIMES, SEPT 2
III. IRAQ REBUILDING PROSCRIBED WEAPONS, VOA, SEPT 3
IV. UK/US FEAR IRAQ BUILDING NUCLEAR BOMB, LST, SEPT 5
V. SADDAM EXPECTING MAJOR BATTLE, AL SHARQ AL AWSAT, SEPT 7
VI. BASHAR AL-ASSAD, SADDAM IS "HUMAN BEAST,", AFP, AUG 24
On Aug 25, the White House released a report to Congress on Iraq's
development of weapons of mass destruction. The classified version is
reportedly much sharper than the unclassified version, which said, "We
are concerned by activity at Iraqi sites known to be capable of
producing WMD and long-range ballistic missiles." It also said, "Our
policy of containment plus regime change is designed to secure the
interests of the citizens of Iraq and its neighbors from an aggressive
and hostile regime, while UN sanctions help prevent Saddam Hussein from
reconstituting his military or WMD capabilities. . . U.S. National
Technical Means can provide information on Iraqi facilities associated
with WMD, but there are limits to what insights can be gained. This
underscores the need for an effective UN inspector presence in-country.
. . . Without Iraqi cooperation, however, we will use the means at our
disposal to detect and deal with reconstitution."
And reading the tea leaves, that seems to be where the administration
is headed. The Wash Times, Sept 2, noted, "The White House report runs
counter to recent administration claims that there is no evidence Iraq
is continuing to work on its nuclear, chemical and biological weapons
program and missile delivery systems," while FAS' John Pike told the
VOA, Sept 3, "I think we have to assume that Iraq currently has useable
amounts of chemical and biological weapons. And that the amount of
those weapons may be growing."
The London Sunday Times, Sept 5, also noted the nuclear threat,
"Experts believe Iraq will try to acquire enriched plutonium from Russia
for use in building nuclear weapons and have little confidence in the
ability of western intelligence to detect this. 'They [the Iraqis] know
how to hide their tracks,' said David Albright, a former nuclear
inspector in Iraq and president of the independent Institute for Science
and International Security in Washington. 'Russia is a shopper's
paradise for them.'"
The LST also reported, "Britain and America are mounting a diplomatic
offensive to push for a resumption of vigorous weapons inspections in
Iraq . . . American intelligence warnings that Iraq is rebuilding
missile factories destroyed in allied bombing raids, and a classified
White House report voicing alarm over 'activity' at Iraqi sites known to
be capable of producing weapons of mass destruction, have given new
urgency to the deliberations. . . . Foreign ministry officials from the
five permanent members of the UN security council-Britain, America,
China, Russia and France-will meet in Washington on Tuesday to discuss
how to deal with Saddam . . . A security council debate on Iraq is
expected later this month. But hopes for a resolution restoring weapons
inspections . . . seem forlorn. In a familiar pattern often exploited
by Iraq, the council is more divided than ever over how to deal with
Saddam."
Indeed, as Reuters reported today, the Washington meeting was
canceled, because China refused to attend.
Thus, informed speculation is that the US will try to secure UNSC
approval of the UK/Dutch draft, but it is not likely to succeed. And
when that happens, the US will set out to bomb Iraq, or try to do so.
Yet following the conclusion of "Operation Desert Fox," a number of
people asked what that bombing campaign had achieved. They included
Haaretz' editors, Dec 20; Richard Perle, Reagan Asst Sec Def, in a Dec
20 AP report [see "Iraq News," Dec 21]; the Wash Post editors, Dec 21;
the Jerusalem Post editors, Dec 21; Helle Bering, in the Wash Times, Dec
23, who cited Paul Wolfowitz, Bush Undersec Def, to that effect; as well
as the Boston Globe editors, Dec 26 [see "Iraq News," Jan 4].
So what will Desert Fox II achieve? Also, bombing Iraq pretty much
requires permission to use Saudi air space. Notably, in Madeleine
Albright's recent trip to the Middle East, in which she presided over
the signing of the latest Israeli-PA accord, she visited Turkey to
discuss Iraq, but not Saudi Arabia. Are US-Saudi relations strained?
Would Saudi Arabia give the US/UK permission to use its air space to
bomb Iraq again?
Al Sharq Al Awsat, Sept 7, reported, "Iraq yesterday accused the
United States of preparing a new military attack against it on the
pretext that Iraq is once again producing mass-destruction weapons. . .
In Amman, Iraqi sources have said that Iraqi President Saddam Hussein
has held more than 30 meetings with the cadres of his party [see "Iraq
News," Jul 2, 9, & 25], while his meetings with commanders of the
military formations are still continuing. The sources confirmed that
the Iraqi president, who seems defiant in his statements, told a group
of commanders that 'the next battle is a battle of life or death.'"
Saddam is not without options [see "Iraq News," Mar 4]. They are all
violent options, but he is a violent man. Indeed, Syrian heir-apparent,
Bashar al-Assad, in a recent visit to Kuwait, called him a "human
beast," as AFP, Aug 24, reported.
The Saudis and other Arabs understand Saddam's viciousness and can
imagine what he might do, particularly given the proscribed weapons
programs he retains. Also they have empathy for the people of Iraq, who
are, after all, fellow Arabs.
Thus, there is a very great gap between how the US and its Arab
allies perceive the situation regarding Iraq. And that gap has the
potential to split the anti-Iraq coalition, depending on what Saddam
does and how the members of the coalition respond.
I. WHITE HOUSE, REPORT ON IRAQI WMD DEVELOPMENT
http://www.fas.org/news/iraq/1999/08/990825-iraq-rpt.htm
II. IRAQ REBUILDING PROSCRIBED WEAPONS
Washington Times
September 2, 1999, p. 1
Saddam secretly making weapons
White House report informs Hill
By Bill Gertz
Iraq is continuing secret work on nuclear, chemical and biological
weapons and missiles that are banned under United Nations sanctions,
according to a White House report sent recently to Congress.
"We are concerned by activity at Iraqi sites known to be capable of
producing [weapons of mass destruction] and long-range ballistic
missiles, as well as by Iraq's long-established covert procurement
activity that could include dual-use items with [weapons] applications,"
the report said.
The six-page report, based on intelligence information and produced
by the White House National Security Council, was required under a
fiscal 1999 appropriations act and highlights the continuing problem
caused by Iraq's expulsion of U.N. weapons inspectors in December.
The Clinton administration began air attacks during Operation Desert
Fox in December, prompting Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein to expel all UN
weapons inspectors and end all cooperation with weapons dismantling.
U.S. warplanes are continuing to fly thousands of combat aircraft
missions over Iraq in order to enforce sanctions that prohibit the Iraqi
military from flying its planes or driving tanks over large sections of
the country.
Pentagon officials have described the ongoing actions as "a low-level
war."
The White House report runs counter to recent administration claims
that there is no evidence Iraq is continuing to work on its nuclear,
chemical and biological weapons program and missile delivery systems.
State Department spokesman James P. Rubin told reporters in July that
"we have no reason to believe there have been significant efforts to
reconstitute their weapons of mass destruction program."
But the report said: "Some eight years after the Gulf War and Saddam
Hussein's defiance of the international community, we are under no
illusions that Iraq, under Saddam Hussein, will comply with [United
Nations Security Council] resolutions on disarmament, human rights,
accounting for POWs and the return of stolen property.
"Our policy of containment plus regime change is designed to secure
the interests of the citizens of Iraq and its neighbors from an
aggressive and hostile regime, while U.N. sanctions help prevent Saddam
Hussein from reconstituting his military or [weapons of mass
destruction] capabilities."
The report said that U.S. forces in the region are "robust."
The United States is prepared to use force "should Saddam cross our
well-established red lines: should he rebuild his [weapons of mass
destruction], should he strike out at his neighbors, should he challenge
allied aircraft in the no-fly zones, or should he move against people
living in the Kurdish-controlled areas of northern Iraq," the report
said.
David Leavy, a National Security Council spokesman, said the report
outlines what is known about the Iraqi weapons activities.
"We continue to support an internal-monitoring program or mechanism
to be in place in Iraq because Saddam has used weapons of mass
destruction in the past, and there's no reason to think he won't again
in the future," Mr. Leavy said. "That remains an area of concern."
The report was made public before debate at the U.N. Security
Council on a resolution proposed by Britain and the Netherlands to set
up a new weapons-inspection system.
"We have made clear to Saddam that one of our red lines is the
reconstitution of weapons of mass destruction," Mr. Leavy said.
The report stated that as long as U.N. weapons inspectors are barred
from working in Iraq, "our concerns about the potential meaning of these
activities will persist."
According to the report, U.S. spy satellites and electronic
eavesdropping on Iraq can provide only limited information on the Iraqi
weapons programs so weapons inspectors on the ground are needed.
On Iraq's nuclear program, the report said the Iraqis did not have
the capability to produce fuel for nuclear weapons in December, when
inspection ended. However, "we cannot rule out continued Iraqi nuclear
weapons research."
Questions remain about Iraqi nuclear weapons activities, the report
said.
Discrepancies still exist about the amount of chemical weapons held
by the Iraqis, and Baghdad has not fully explained the extent of its
germ-weapons programs. "Iraq retains the industrial capability and
knowledge base to develop [biological weapons] agents quickly," the
report said.
As for long-range missiles banned under U.N. sanctions, the report
states that the Iraqis may be hiding at least seven complete missile
systems and major components.
The report states that priority issues include resolving concerns
that Iraq still has banned warheads capable of delivering chemical or
biological weapons, including warheads filled with the nerve agent VX.
The Iraqis also may have "single-use liquid missile propellent and
indigenous missile production" programs hidden from inspectors.
The report concluded that a long-term weapons monitoring method is
critical to detecting Baghdad's efforts to rebuild its weapons of mass
destruction.
Scott Ritter, a former chief inspector in Iraq for the United
Nations, said in an interview that the report highlights contradictory
policies by the administration. It appears to be aimed at bolstering the
administration's covert efforts to oust Saddam rather than getting
international weapons inspectors back inside Iraq, he said.
"This paper shows that we are not really serious about the issue of
weapons inspections," Mr. Ritter said. "If we were serious, we would
understand the requirement for a new approach to inspections that
achieves as much as we can get in terms of a viable inspection process.
"This is purely a smoke screen on the part of the administration to
legitimize its containment policy and the ultimate removal of Saddam."
One senior U.N. official told The Washington Times: "If we get back
in, we may have to approach the inspections like starting from square
one." He confirmed that the United Nations may be forced to engage in
new searches for weapons facilities built since the inspections ended.
It could take a long time--years, he explained.
Marine Corps Sgt. John Baker, a spokesman for the U.S. Central
Command, said U.S. and allied warplanes have flown more than 14,500
patrol flights over the southern Iraq air exclusion zone since December
1998, when the military launched Operation Desert Fox.
"There have been 51 strikes and about 120 targets have been fired on"
since December, Sgt. Baker said.
The command, which is in charge of the 31,000 troops in the Persian
Gulf region, has logged about 215 Iraqi "provocations" that prompted
retaliation by U.S. and allied warplanes, Sgt. Baker said.
About 120 of the provocations were Iraqi aircraft penetrations into
the air exclusion zone, which extends over most of Iraq south of
Baghdad, he said.
Over northern Iraq, the combat picture since the U.S. bombing raids
in December is similar. Air Force jets dropped eight bombs on northern
Iraqi targets yesterday, a Pentagon official said.
· Stewart Stogel contributed to this report from New York.
III. IRAQ REBUILDING PROSCRIBED WEAPONS, VOA
http://www.fas.org/news/iraq/1999/09/990903-iraq1.htm
IV. UK/US FEAR IRAQ BUILDING NUCLEAR BOMB
London Sunday Times
September 5, 1999
West fears Saddam is on brink of building nuclear missile
Matthew Campbell
Washington
BRITAIN and America are mounting a diplomatic offensive to push for a
resumption of vigorous weapons inspections in Iraq amid fears that
Saddam Hussein has used a respite in international monitoring to pursue
his quest for a "doomsday weapon".
American intelligence warnings that Iraq is rebuilding missile
factories destroyed in allied bombing raids, and a classified White
House report voicing alarm over "activity" at Iraqi sites known to be
capable of producing weapons of mass destruction, have given new urgency
to the deliberations.
Experts familiar with Saddam's nuclear weapons programme predict that
the dictator could assemble a nuclear warhead within months, though
testing it would take much longer.
It is assumed that Saddam has taken advantage of the absence of
United Nations weapons inspectors he expelled late last year to pursue
chemical and biological weapons programmes as well.
Foreign ministry officials from the five permanent members of the UN
security council - Britain, America, China, Russia and France - will
meet in Washington on Tuesday to discuss how to deal with Saddam, who
has doggedly defied UN sanctions and thousands of allied airstrikes.
A security council debate on Iraq is expected later this month. But
hopes for a resolution restoring weapons inspections by Unscom, the UN
special commission, seem forlorn. In a familiar pattern often exploited
by Iraq, the council is more divided than ever over how to deal with
Saddam.
France, Russia and China are pushing for a gradual softening of
sanctions under a watered-down weapons inspection programme. Britain and
America are insisting on inspections under the same conditions that
governed the previous Unscom team, and continued sanctions until Saddam
complies with disarmament.
Washington's position is complicated by disquiet about Iraqi policy
among the American military and in Congress, where it is argued that
tougher measures, including efforts to topple Saddam, are needed. Some
Pentagon officials are pressing for an intensification of the allied air
campaign, in which British and American pilots have fired 1,100 missiles
at 359 targets over the past eight months. Some in Congress support
arming Saddam's opponents. Others recommend a new deadline for Saddam to
agree to readmit weapons inspectors. If he refuses, the allies should
step up air strikes and expand no-flight zones.
A secret White House report to Congress voiced concern about "Iraq's
long-established covert procurement activity". Experts believe Iraq will
try to acquire enriched plutonium from Russia for use in building
nuclear weapons and have little confidence in the ability of western
intelligence to detect this.
"They [the Iraqis] know how to hide their tracks," said David
Albright, a former nuclear inspector in Iraq and president of the
independent Institute for Science and International Security in
Washington. "Russia is a shopper's paradise for them."
Albright believes Iraq may already have a nuclear weapon design,
lacking only the "fissile material" - enriched uranium or plutonium -
necessary for building a bomb. He and other experts believe that, with
fissile material, Iraq could produce nuclear weapons within two to 12
months.
Judith Yaphe, an Iraqi expert at the National Defence University in
Washington, warned that electronic intelligence gathering over Iraq by
the Central Intelligence Agency could shed little light on the problem.
A joint British and Dutch proposal under debate would reimpose robust
weapons inspections and continue economic sanctions until Iraq has
complied on disarmament. France is suggesting a series of rewards for
Iraq as it complies with UN demands, including a gradual easing of
restrictions on sales of Iraqi oil.
Additional reporting: Uzi Mahnaimi, Tel Aviv
V. SADDAM EXPECTING MAJOR BATTLE
Sources Cited on Saddam's Concern Over 'Next Battle'
London Al-Sharq al-Awsat in Arabic 7 Sep 99 page 2
[Unattributed report: "Iraq Accuses Washington of Preparing for New
Attack; Saddam Continues His Meetings With Military Commanders"]
[FBIS Translated Excerpt] Amman, Baghdad, Al-Sharq al-Awsat, AFP, Reuter
Iraq yesterday accused the United States of preparing to launch a new
military attack against it on the pretext that Iraq is once again
producing mass-destruction weapons. The Iraqi accusations were made
while Iraqi President Saddam Husayn continued his meetings with Iraqi
Armed Forces commanders. He was cited as saying that one day the United
States and Zionism will admit their mistake against Iraq. He also
emphasized Iraq's ability to repair air defense systems. In Amman, Iraqi
sources have said that Iraqi President Saddam Husayn has held more than
30 meetings with the cadres of his party while his meetings with
commanders of the military formations are still continuing. The sources
confirmed that the Iraqi president, who seems defiant in his statements,
told a group of military commanders that "the next battle is a battle of
life or death, and anyone who does not want Saddam Husayn let him not
stand fast." The sources cited a number of people with whom Saddam met
as saying that he regarded that battle as a showdown and that his
reassurance that they would triumph in the new confrontation reflects
his concern over the nature of the next battle.
According to the sources, Army officers are now certain that the next
battle between Baghdad and Washington will not be an army battle, but
rather a lightning operation by US forces aimed directly against
President Saddam Husayn's residences, based on intelligence available to
these officers. [passage omitted citing Iraqi press]
VI. BASHAR AL-ASSAD, SADDAM IS "HUMAN BEAST"
Controversy erupts over Assad's comments in Kuwait
KUWAIT CITY, Aug 24 (AFP) - The visit of Bashar al-Assad, the son of
the Syrian president, to Kuwait ended in controversy Tuesday with
denials of his reported comments on Iraqi President Saddam Hussein
as a "human beast."
Kuwait's Al-Anbaa and Al-Watan newspapers on Tuesday reported on
their front pages that Colonel Assad had branded Saddam Hussein a "human
beast" in a virulent attack on the Iraqi regime.
But within hours Kuwait's official KUNA news agency quoted an aide to
Assad as denying the words had ever been uttered, and also denying that
Assad had discussed economic reforms in Syria in an interview with
another Kuwaiti newspaper, Al-Rai Al-Aam.
"A source from the delegation of Bashar al-Assad has indicated that
the remarks reported by the Kuwaiti newspapers are inaccurate," KUNA
said.
The move left Kuwaiti journalists stunned.
Al-Anbaa's deputy editor-in-chief Wafai Diab told AFP that "Assad
made his statements about Saddam openly and in public, in front of many
people who included journalists."
"The story appeared in other papers ... There were other reporters
there," Diab said.
But Colonel Assad "merely said that the Syrian people support the
Kuwait people over the issue of those held prisoner in Iraqi prisons,"
and "did not mention the issue of economic reforms," KUNA quoted its
source as saying.
The official agency itself on Monday had reported similar comments by
Assad on Iraq during a meeting with the families of those who
disappeared during Iraq's occupation of Kuwait between 1990 and 1991.
"If there is someone who knows him (Saddam Hussein) well, it's us ...
the Iraqi people have also suffered for several years as prisoners of
the Iraqi regime," Assad had said, according to KUNA's first report.
One of the people present at the meeting said Assad was initially
reserved, but was so moved by the story of a mother of one of those
still missing that he began weeping and described Saddam Hussein as a
"human beast."
But the comments came at a time of detente between Iraq and Syria,
both ruled by rival branches of the pan-Arab Baath party. Ties were
broken off in 1980, but renewed in 1997 with a decision to open their
shared border to businessmen and officials.
Meanwhile, a journalist from Al-Rai Al-Aam told AFP that Assad's
interview on economic reforms in Syria had indeed been given and part of
it had been in front of Kuwaiti officials.
"We are 100 percent sure of this report, which we published in its
entirety," the journalist said, asking not to be named.
"We were astonished by this denial, we don't know the circumstances"
under which it was made, he said.
Colonel Assad, 34, arrived in Kuwait on Sunday, where he met Kuwaiti
Emir Sheikh Jaber al-Ahmad al-Sabah Monday and visited an air base which
shelters US warplanes.
Assad left Kuwait Tuesday for a brief visit to Saudi Arabia.
Since the death of his elder brother in 1994, Assad has apparently
been groomed to succeed his 69-year-old father.
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