Iraq News by Laurie Mylroie
The central focus of Iraq News is the tension between the considerable, proscribed WMD capabilities that Iraq is holding on to and its increasing stridency that it has complied with UNSCR 687 and it is time to lift sanctions. If you wish to receive Iraq News by email, a service which includes full-text of news reports not archived here, send your request to Laurie Mylroie .
IRAQ NEWS, THURSDAY, JUNE 17, 1999
I. THE SMALLPOX DANGER, NYT, JUN 15
II. SADDAM SPEECH TO ARMY, IRAQ TV, JUN 12
The Wash Post, Jun 13, published the first of three excerpts from Bob
Woodward's, "Shadow: Five Presidents and the Legacy of Watergate,"
(Simon & Schuster). The excerpt details Clinton's lies to his closest
associates and their revulsion upon learning that the allegations
regarding Monica Lewinsky were true. It is posted at:
http://search.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPlate/1999-06/13/199l-061399-idx.html
Almost certainly, there are nat'l security implications for the US and
its allies, if a US president acts so irresponsibly, because it is
unlikely that the irresponsible behavior is limited to one thing alone.
ABC Evening News yesterday reported that Osama bin Ladin is planning
another attack against the US. Also, there is evidence that bin Ladin's
"network" acquired material for chemical or biological terrorism in the
former Soviet Union.
The NYT, Jun 13, reported that a secret federal intelligence
assessment completed late last year concluded that Iraq, North Korea,
and Russia "are probably concealing the deadly smallpox virus for
military use."
The NYT, Jun 15, reported, "Early this month, Federal experts meeting
in Atlanta reviewed the germ threats facing the nation. Smallpox came
out on top. Second was anthrax, which causes high fevers and death but
is not contagious. In comparison, smallpox spreads like wildfire."
One problem is that there is little immunity, "In 1972, the United
States stopped routine vaccinations of civilians against smallpox,
nearly a decade ahead of much of the world. Thus, about 114 million
Americans born since then, 42 percent of the population, are completely
vulnerable. For people age 27 and older who were vaccinated, the degree
of protection is unclear because scientists have never systematically
measured the duration of immunity. Protection probably drops with time,
but how much is unknown. Lifelong immunity is unlikely, some experts
say. But old vaccinations may lead to milder attacks. . . .
"Smallpox vaccine is still needed at [the Centers for Disease Control
and Prevention] for scientists who work with the virus. But serious
problems with quality control have stopped vaccinations, creating an
acute problem for a very select group of scientists in the United States
and, in the event of an emergency, a much wider group of people.
Crumbling rubber stoppers on vials are letting in moisture and a
brilliant green dye is inexplicably losing its color, but the vaccine
remains near normal potency. . . The bigger problem is that the American
supply of a colorless liquid medicine, known as vaccinia immune
globulin, which is needed to counteract adverse reactions to the
vaccine, has turned pink for reasons no one understands. . . . The Food
and Drug Administration has barred its use until the mystery is solved.
A further complication is that new batches of vaccine cannot be made
with the old process, since today that process would fail to pass the
FDA's more rigorous standards. In late 1997 . . . the Pentagon
embarked on a $322 million program to make new vaccines for the
military, including smallpox. The earliest it will be ready, officials
say, is 2005--if it can pass FDA muster."
Under the Clinton administration, starting with the Feb 26, 1993
World Trade Center bombing, a new explanation for terrorism emerged.
The claim is that major acts of terrorism are no longer state-sponsored.
Rather, there is a new phenomenon, "loose networks." Yet it is the
view of "Iraq News" that Iraq is working with Muslim extremists and that
several major terrorist incidents attributed to them alone are better
explained by Muslim extremists plus Iraq [see "Iraq News," Mar 4].
Sometimes people mock that--she says everything is Iraq. But that is
unfair. People should focus on the evidence and the arguments.
After all, what is history but a march of follies and why should we
be exempt? Also, the more serious the consequence of being wrong, the
more necessary it is to examine generally-held assumptions and how those
assumptions filter the information one receives. That is, to strive to
act as one's own Team B.
The assumption that there is a new kind of terrorism-which does not
involve states and is represented by bin Ladin et. al.-if it is wrong,
leaves the US exposed to terrible vulnerabilities. In the extreme, a
state, working with bin Ladin et. al., could carry out BW terrorism and
expect to get away with it, because the blame would fall solely on bin
Ladin et.al. That, at least, would be a reasonable expectation, given
how the Clinton administration has handled terrorism to date.
And not everyone accepts the conventional opinion. Most recently,
Regis Matlak, CIA Officer-in-Residence at Georgetown University's School
of Foreign Service, Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, in "Inside
Saddam's Grip," National Security Studies Quarterly, Spring, 1999,
suggested that Baghdad might be working in concert with various
terrorists, including bin Ladin [p. 17].
Iraq Television, Jun 12, reported on a meeting Saddam held with "a
number of Armed Forces commanders and officers." Much of the speech was
opaque. For example, Saddam said, "We are on our land and the enemy has
come to us from a distance. Therefore, we believe that despite all that
Iraq was exposed to, the enemy will eventually depart. There are three
heights surrounding Iraq. The largest area of Iraq is level land. This
is in addition to the fertile land of Mesopotamia and the reputation of
stability and civilization. It has even become an international
tradition that he who has the title of the king of the four directions
must occupy Babylon. Therefore, those who seek to impose hegemony on
the four directions must eventually wage battle against the people of
Babylon." It is hard to understand quite what that means, beyond the
general statement that the US will somehow withdraw.
Saddam also said, "In the past, the enemies of Iraq were primitive
who endured hardships, but our new enemies have a special status. They
rely on technological supremacy, which Almighty God wanted to be a major
lesson to us."
Saddam also said, "We have said over and over again: states that are
across the Atlantic-like the United States and other countries, as well
as those in remote areas-have all forgotten that the longer the arm
stretches, the weaker it becomes day after day in any point it is
stretched to. Here they are today. They have stepped out of the
ordinary standards of a stretched arm that is in a well-balanced state
with the mind and body it is attached to. Therefore, they will grow
weary and eventually they will say: Let us return to our country."
Saddam also said, "The difference is in the time they choose to
return to their countries. There is a difference between them returning
at a certain time and thus teaching humanity a positive lesson to be
learned at the expense of the aggressors and their return at another
time, thus teaching humanity a lesson in terror."
Thus, the US will eventually leave. But if the US withdraws at a
"certain time" and at its "expense," there is a "positive lesson." It
is possible to resist the world's only superpower and otherwise stand up
to the seductive world of McWorld. But if the US withdraws at "another
time" that would constitute a "lesson in terror"-i.e. the US would have
succeeded in demonstrating by its technological supremacy that it can
terrorize the will of others.
The former is surely Saddam's intended outcome. As "Iraq News," Mar
4, suggested, Saddam seeks glory. He cannot achieve that through
positive action. It is not in his nature. But he can achieve it, at
least in his mind, by destructive action, by defeating the US. And in
that, Saddam may well use, at some point, the unconventional weapons
capabilities he retains.
Saddam concluded, "Any Arab people can become like you if they seek
support from God, strive for sublime objectives, and do not accept to
bow to the invaders or tyrants. They should brandish the sword in the
face of any invader as their forefathers used to do."
I. THE SMALLPOX DANGER
New York Times
June 15, 1999
Smallpox: The Once and Future Scourge?
The following article was reported by Lawrence K. Altman, William J.
Broad and Judith Miller and was written by Broad.
No one has come down with smallpox for decades. But in some respects
it is potentially more dangerous than ever. Smallpox killed more people
over the ages than any other infectious disease. In the 20th century
alone, experts estimate, it took up to a half billion lives, more than
all the wars and epidemics put together.
Its scars run deep. As long as three thousand years ago, Chinese
records tell of slow deaths and disfigurations. Signs of pockmarks
appear on the mummified head of the Egyptian Pharaoh Ramses V. The
disease decimated Europe and traveled with colonists to the New World,
laying waste to tribes and aiding British soldiers who spread the virus
as a biological weapon.
Today, the high fevers, deep rashes and oozing pustules that
characterize smallpox are gone -- a feat of disease eradication so far
unequaled in the history of public health. This banishment is so
complete that recent medical textbooks often skip the disease or give
few details of its wrath.
Despite this triumph of modern medicine, Washington and key allies
now fear the scourge could strike anew sometime in the future, unleashed
by war or terrorism. And that worry is raising new alarms and questions.
What makes the virus so deadly? How well do old vaccinations work?
What about new drugs and vaccines? How likely is a smallpox attack?
Some answers are grim. For instance, troubles with quality control
are such that no stored smallpox vaccine in the United States can now be
used except in emergencies, Federal officials say. Stoppers on vials are
deteriorating and a vital ancillary medicine is unusable.
A turning point came on April 22 when the United States -- one of two
official smallpox repositories around the globe, along with Russia --
announced that it would delay its intended destruction of the virus,
reversing years of planning and Washington's previous stance.
The virus was to have been destroyed this month, the first species
driven to extinction by design rather than accident. But the Clinton
Administration, after careful study, concluded that clandestine supplies
probably exist and could cause the disease to emerge suddenly in war.
And it reasoned that living samples might aid the development of new
treatments and antidotes.
THE SMALLPOX DEBATE
In the wake of that decision, a host of other actions are now taking
shape. Most visibly, top scientists and health experts are now calling
for a Federal program to produce new vaccine to protect up to 100
million people in the United States -- enough, in theory, to stop any
epidemic in its tracks. More quietly, American and Russian scientists
hope to embark on studies to better understand the killer's ways in an
effort to perfect a cure. And most stealthily of all, intelligence
agencies are stepping up their efforts to better judge the threat of
smallpox attacks.
"It's disturbing, extremely disturbing," said Dr. Donald A.
Henderson, the scientist who led the global campaign that eradicated
smallpox and now is dean emeritus of the Johns Hopkins School of Public
Health. "I thought the door had closed on smallpox. I had happily put it
away." Dr. Joshua Lederberg, a Nobel laureate in biology who advises
Washington on germ warfare, called the eradication "one of the great
humanitarian accomplishments of our century." But he added: "We have no
idea what may have been retained, maliciously or inadvertently, in the
laboratories of a hundred countries from the time that smallpox was a
common disease. These would be the most likely sources of supply for
possible bioterrorists."
To the extent that past is prologue, the experts say, the history of
smallpox offers clues to the dangers and opportunities that may lie
ahead.
Experts warn that if smallpox returns it could be more deadly than
ever. The effects of the disease on an unprotected population were
underscored by the experience of settlers who set sail from Plymouth,
England, landed on the Massachusetts coast in 1620 and found the area
remarkably free of Indians because a deadly epidemic had just swept
through. Early explorers had already spread the virus. Over the ages,
immunities built up slowly as people survived the infection, with
children usually faring better than adults. Later on, vaccinations
helped keep the scourge at bay.
Today, experts say, such protections are all but gone and people are
generally more vulnerable to the disease, underscoring the need for
intelligent debate and possibly protective action.
"We're all Indians," said Elizabeth A. Fenn, a smallpox historian at
George Washington University. "We're approaching 100 percent
susceptibility."
THE MURDERER
As Viruses Go, Huge and Vicious
No one knows where smallpox came from. Viral historians say it
probably began as an epidemic disease 10,000 years ago when human
populations first grew dense. The virus is unusual in that it inhabits
only humans, unlike many whose main home is in animals.
"It had to have evolved from its natural forebears," said Dr.
Lederberg, a president emeritus of Rockefeller University. "Close
relatives like monkeypox are still fairly prevalent in the rain forests,
occasionally reaching humans."
Evidence that the disease has existed for at least three millennia is
found in the scars on the head and shoulders of the Pharaoh Ramses V,
who died as a young man in 1157 B.C., perhaps of the disease. Deities in
India and West Africa are devoted to smallpox, attesting to ages of
devastation. The disease, probably spread by traders, is said by
historians to have reached Europe sometime in the first millennium.
In 1520, Hernando Cortés, the Spanish conqueror of Mexico, is
believed to have unintentionally brought a smallpox-infected slave with
him to the New World. In the next two years, an estimated 3.5 million
Aztecs died. In 18th-century Europe, smallpox killed 400,000 people a
year, peasants and monarchs alike, a toll proportionately equivalent to
more than a million deaths today. The disease in one 80-year period is
said to have taken the lives of a Queen of England, an Emperor of
Austria, a King of Spain, a Czar of Russia, a King of France and a Queen
of Sweden. And President Abraham Lincoln in 1863 was probably feverish
with the disease when he gave the Gettysburg Address. Two days later, he
broke out in the gruesome rash.
Modern science has found that the smallpox virus, known as variola,
is a monster in size, possessing one of the largest genetic blueprints
of any virus. Whether that helps explain its extraordinary lethality is
unknown. What is clear is that, unlike most viruses, it is highly stable
outside its host and can retain its powers of infection over long
periods of time, aiding its spread among victims. After a person is
exposed, the virus multiplies rapidly and spreads unobtrusively through
the body's lymph system for about two weeks. Suddenly the symptoms come
on. The head, back and muscles ache. The temperature spikes as high as
104 degrees, leaving the victim drained. In these hours, little
distinguishes smallpox from garden-variety flu.
In about two days, fever and aches give way to pockmarks. At first
they dot the tongue and roof of the mouth and then, over a few days,
break out over the face and spread to the arms and legs. Flat and red at
first, the pox over two weeks or so turn into small blisters and fill
with pus, after which scabs form. Sometimes the entire rash becomes
bloody. In its early stages, the disease is often confused with
chicken pox, and one way to distinguish them is that the smallpox rash
often spreads farther, covering the palms and soles.
About a third of the victims die, mainly from blood loss, low blood
pressure, cardiovascular collapse and secondary infections. Many
survivors are scarred and blinded. Others have shortened bones and other
complications.
Smallpox spreads easily once the rash appears in the throat or skin,
and studies have shown that each infected person typically passes the
virus to three or four others in close contact, often by coughing. In
hospitals, the virus has been shown to travel surprisingly far in the
air.
THE ERADICATION
Hunting Down an Assassin
In 18th-century Europe, one segment of the population--
milkmaids--attracted medical attention because they escaped smallpox.
Surmising that these workers may have developed an immunity from their
association with cows, who were prone to a related disease, cowpox,
Edward Jenner, a British physician, in 1796 vaccinated a boy with
material from an infected cow, Blossom.
Two months later, Jenner inoculated the boy with smallpox virus, but
the boy did not get sick. He was immune. Jenner had successfully
developed the smallpox vaccine. Jenner sent his report on this
breakthrough to the Royal Society, which promptly rejected it. So Jenner
published the historic paper on his own.
Like any vaccine, Jenner's worked by alerting the body's immune
system to the threat of microscopic invaders, prompting the formation of
antibodies to fight them off. The novelty was that Jenner used one virus
to protect against another, the first being similar enough to trigger
the body's defenses. Cowpox protected against smallpox even though the
two viruses, though clearly related, are distinct species.
Jenner dreamed of eliminating smallpox. But no serious efforts were
made until the 20th century. As late as the 1930's, smallpox struck up
to 50,000 people each year in the United States. The last case occurred
in 1949 in Hidalgo County, Texas. Although Jenner had used cowpox virus,
a third virus, vaccinia, became the standard vaccine against smallpox.
Experts say vaccinia is related to the smallpox and cowpox viruses, but
its origin is a major scientific mystery.
Global vaccinations and quarantines began to be envisioned when,
after World War II, the World Health Organization was founded as an arm
of the newly established United Nations. In 1959, W.H.O. resolved to
eradicate smallpox, largely at Moscow's urging. But little happened
until 1966, when the United States and the Soviet Union proposed $2.5
million for an expanded effort. That year two million people died of the
disease, mainly in Bangladesh, Brazil, India, Indonesia, Nepal, Pakistan
and African countries south of the Sahara. Mass vaccinations were not
enough to stop all viral transmission. So planners added strong measures
to hunt down hidden cases and quarantine victims in an effort to create
transmission barriers.
In many countries, tribal healers were hired to perform vaccinations,
eventually doing much good. "They were soon out of a job," recalled Dr.
Henderson, who led the global campaign.
Europe wiped out smallpox early on. But infected foreign visitors
still caused outbreaks so severe that hospitals specifically for
smallpox were built. As late as the 1960's, West Germany constructed two
such hospitals. India was one of the last major hurdles. In 1975 during
a two-week period, 130,000 workers visited 100 million homes there,
finding many smallpox cases. Cash rewards produced others. With each
sweep, the smallpox count dropped. Once India was free of the disease,
attention turned to Ethiopia. Counts fell and the global effort seemed
over. But then cases popped up in Somalia, on the horn of Africa.
After another push, W.H.O. recorded the last case on Oct. 26, 1977,
putting the Somali victim in quarantine. With that, the person-to-person
chain was broken, defeating the scourge.
In 1980, W.H.O. proclaimed the world free of smallpox and soon asked
for all laboratory samples of the virus to be destroyed or sent to
central repositories. But it had no inspection powers. The heroes of the
eradication effort had to take nations of the world on their word when,
one by one, they said the dreaded virus was gone.
THE THREAT
Dark Evidence of Hidden Arsenal
The deadliness of smallpox has long beckoned to military minds and
was exploited in the New World with relative ease. Settlers and
soldiers from Europe often had immunity because of childhood exposure.
And Indians did not. So the virus tended to kill selectively, overcoming
a general drawback of germ weapons.
During an Indian uprising in 1763, Sir Jeffery Amherst, commander of
British forces in North America (and namesake of the Massachusetts
city), suggested that the disease be sown deliberately. "Could it not be
contrived to send the Small Pox among those disaffected tribes of
Indians?" he wrote a subordinate, encouraging the use of "every
stratagem in our power to reduce them."
In fact, his men at Fort Pitt, today Pittsburgh, had already forged
ahead without his encouragement, giving Indians infected blankets and a
germ-laden handkerchief. Epidemics ensued, but historians are unsure to
what extent the spread was due to natural or deliberate exposure.
Dr. Fenn, the George Washington historian, who is finishing a book on
smallpox epidemics in America, said Amherst and his men's independent
pursuit of smallpox weapons showed the idea's prevalence and wide
appeal, which continued into the Revolutionary War.
"They were willing to use it in nasty ways," she said of British
forces. "But it's almost impossible to determine how effective it was."
Still, she said, George Washington was suspicious enough of the
British using smallpox as a weapon, and had lost so many troops to the
disease, that in 1777 he ordered his men to undergo crude inoculations.
The Americans, in contrast to English soldiers, had typically grown up
without exposure to the disease. Thus, like the Indians, they had no
acquired immunity.
Despite its apparent disuse in the last two centuries, the idea of
smallpox as a weapon has never disappeared. Indeed, evidence has
recently surfaced that many such armaments were made, if not used.
In 1992, a Soviet official named Kanatjan Kalibekov, now known as Ken
Alibek, defected to the United States. In secret debriefings, Alibek,
formerly a top player in Soviet germ warfare, told Washington that
Moscow had made tons of smallpox for war, and he suggested that the
virus might have been sold or secreted away as the Soviet state
collapsed and Russian scientists sought new ways to support themselves.
Last year he went public, and he followed this year with a book,
"Biohazard" (Random House), which details a nightmare of smallpox
weapons that he says the Soviet Union made, including warheads for
long-range missiles.
W.H.O.'s announcement of the disease's eradication in 1980, Alibek
wrote, had prompted the Soviets to redouble their smallpox efforts.
"Where other governments saw a medical victory," he said, "the Kremlin
perceived a military opportunity."
Federal officials say they have confirmed many of Alibek's smallpox
claims and have also found signs that the virus is now hidden in Iraq
and North Korea, although they report seeing no evidence of smallpox
arms or planned strikes. The intelligence, they say, helped drive
Clinton's April 22 decision to forgo destruction of American stocks.
Officially, destruction of the virus has been put off three years,
until at least June 2002, as world health authorities debate the stay.
THE VACCINE
Nagging Doubts About a Life Saver
In 1972, the United States stopped routine vaccinations of civilians
against smallpox, nearly a decade ahead of much of the world. Thus,
about 114 million Americans born since then, 42 percent of the
population, are completely vulnerable.
For people age 27 and older who were vaccinated, the degree of
protection is unclear because scientists have never systematically
measured the duration of immunity. Protection probably drops with time,
but how much is unknown. Lifelong immunity is unlikely, some experts
say. But old vaccinations may lead to milder attacks.
At the end of the eradication program, W.H.O. and a number of
countries independently stored enough smallpox vaccine for 60 million
people and kept a safeguarded supply of the vaccinia virus to make
vaccine in case more was needed.
With its cache, the United States in theory could protect up to 14
million people if each vial of stored vaccine was used to its maximum
potential of 100 doses. The manufacturer, Wyeth Laboratories, holds the
supply of vaccine in Marietta, Pa., under the control of the Centers for
Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta.
Smallpox vaccine is still needed at C.D.C. for scientists who work
with the virus. But serious problems with quality control have stopped
vaccinations, creating an acute problem for a very select group of
scientists in the United States and, in the event of an emergency, a
much wider group of people.
Crumbling rubber stoppers on vials are letting in moisture, and a
brilliant green dye is inexplicably losing its color, but the vaccine
remains near normal potency, Federal experts say. The bigger problem is
that the American supply of a colorless liquid medicine, known as
vaccinia immune globulin, which is needed to counteract adverse
reactions to the vaccine, has turned pink for reasons no one
understands. Federal rules say the medicine must be on hand before
vaccinations are given, and the Food and Drug Administration has barred
its use until the mystery is solved.
A further complication is that new batches of vaccine cannot be made
with the old process, since today that process would fail to pass the
F.D.A.'s more rigorous standards. In late 1997, prompted in part by
Alibek's revelations, the Pentagon embarked on a $322 million program to
make new vaccines for the military, including smallpox. The earliest it
will be ready, officials say, is 2005 -- if it can pass F.D.A. muster.
That will be difficult. Because the disease no longer exists and the
virus is too lethal to unleash on people, clinical trials cannot be
conducted to test whether or not the new vaccine actually helps humans
resist smallpox.
"Ultimately, they're going to have to make a fairly substantial
judgment call," Steve Pryor, president of Dynport, the Pentagon's
vaccine contractor, said of F.D.A. officials.
Civil authorities in Washington want at least 40 million doses of new
smallpox vaccine, and health experts like Dr. Henderson, who now heads a
center for the study of bioterrorism at Johns Hopkins, are calling for
100 million. Talks are under way for Dynport to produce vaccine for
civilian use as well, but nothing to date has been worked out.
Meanwhile, some experts question the whole vaccine approach as a germ
warfare safeguard. Foes, they say, knowing well in advance about
vaccinations, might counter them by switching to a different germ or a
different variant, perhaps genetically engineered.
"Defensive measures are much more difficult than offensive ones,"
said William C. Patrick 3d, who made germ weapons for the United States
before President Nixon outlawed them three decades ago.
Such threats are helping fuel a search for new ways to combat
smallpox and related viruses, including the development of new kinds of
anti-viral drugs. Unlike vaccines, such drugs, if found workable, might
be administered long after exposure to save infected victims, attacking
the virus directly rather than relying on the body's immune defenses.
In March, the National Academy of Sciences released a 108-page report
listing new research frontiers, many of which American and Russian
scientists are already pursuing, such as trying to understand the
genetic secrets that make the virus so deadly. Combined with the
intelligence assessment that other countries were harboring smallpox for
military use, the academy report influenced the Clinton Administration's
decision to forgo destruction of the virus.
The great unknown, experts say, is whether the benefits of such
planning will ever be needed in a crisis and, if so, whether the
protections will work as envisioned. But the consensus is that action is
nonetheless needed. Early this month, Federal experts meeting in
Atlanta reviewed the germ threats facing the nation. Smallpox came out
on top. Second was anthrax, which causes high fevers and death but is
not contagious. In comparison, smallpox spreads like wildfire.
"It was unanimous that smallpox is the primary threat," said Dr.
Henderson, who attended the Federal meeting. "The likelihood of an
attack is small, but were it to occur it would be a real catastrophe."
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