Iraq News by Laurie Mylroie
The central focus of Iraq News is the tension between the considerable, proscribed WMD capabilities that Iraq is holding on to and its increasing stridency that it has complied with UNSCR 687 and it is time to lift sanctions. If you wish to receive Iraq News by email, a service which includes full-text of news reports not archived here, send your request to Laurie Mylroie .
"IRAQ NEWS," TUESDAY, MAY 25, 1999
I. SAUDI DEFENSE MINISTER VISITS IRAN, REUTERS, MAY 1
II. BAHRAINI FOREIGN MINISTER VISITS IRAN, REUTERS, MAY 4
III. INFORMAL GCC SUMMIT, REUTERS, MAY 10
IV. BAHRAINI CROWN PRINCE MEETS KHATAMI, REUTERS, MAY 20
V. KUWAIT FOREIGN MINISTER URGES BETTER GCC-IRAN TIES, KUWAIT R., MAY 15
VI. TALABANI, US WANTS TO OVERTHROW SADDAM, REUTERS, MAY 10
VII. AL THAWRA, CHARGES SAUDI-IRANIAN PLOT, REUTERS, MAY 23
The INC leadership is in Wash DC. It met with Sec State Madeleine
Albright yesterday and will meet with NSC Adviser Sandy Berger Thurs.
But as the wire services are reporting, including AP, May 24, "U.S.
won't Give Military Aid to Anti-Saddam Iraqis," the administration
remains unwilling to implement the Iraq Liberation Act (ILA), even as it
has no other policy to deal with the Saddam threat, even as it has been
over five months--since Dec 15--in which UNSCOM/IAEA have not been in
Iraq.
An informed source explained to "Iraq News" another reason why the
Netanyahu Gov't said so little about the Iraq threat [see "Iraq News,"
May 17]. Apparently, Netanyahu was concerned that if an effort were
made to overthrow Saddam and if Saddam were cornered, he would lash out,
targeting Israel with missiles carrying unconventional weapons.
Saddam's vengefulness and what he might do with Iraq's missiles and
retained unconventional capabilities is indeed a serious problem, and
not just as regards Israel. [i.e. L. Mylroie "Saddam has Weapons at the
Ready," Boston Globe, Nov 16, 1997.]
But the problem is not dealt with by leaving Saddam in power. There
are scenarios besides his imminent overthrow in which Saddam is also
likely to use proscribed weapons, above all, when he believes he is
strong enough to do so.
Indeed, when the head of Israeli military intelligence met Amb
Richard Butler, in Sept, 1997, and discussed Saddam, Butler asked,
"What's the answer?" Gen. Ayalon replied, "There is no rational answer.
He thinks in another way, his main values [all relate to] power. If we
look at him through Western eyes, with Western values, he is impossible
to comprehend. He exists. He survives. He has mechanisms in place to
control the internal situation . . . You can never be sure what he will
do. When he has the capacity to use weapons of mass destruction, he
will. Iraq is the main threat to Israel. Saddam wants to acquire the
capabilities to become a regional superpower, to deter us, to dominate
the supply of oil in the Persian Gulf." [Scott Ritter, Endgame, p. 155]
That is precisely how "Iraq News" views Saddam, plus there is
revenge. A responsible government would explain publicly that a very
serious problem exists and deal with it, while working to develop ways
to limit the damage Saddam might be able to do, as he is brought down.
As regards Israel, one version of the ILA would declare Iraq's western
desert part of the area to be turned over to the Iraqi opposition and
placed under its control. That would put Israel beyond range of Iraqi
SCUDs. And under some circumstances--if Iraq succeeded in acquiring the
fissile material for a bomb--that would also make the difference between
whether Israel lay under the threat of an Iraqi nuclear attack or not.
Iranian president Mohammad Khatami visited Saudi Arabia May 15 to 19,
marking the first visit of an Iranian head of state to that country
since the Shah visited there in Apr, 1975. The Khatami Gov't is
interested in improving ties with neighboring states, but why were the
Saudis interested in hosting him?
As "Iraq News," Sept 19, 1997, explained, the Saudis have always
viewed Iran with suspicion, even under the Shah, and they have jealously
guarded their primacy over the Gulf shaykhdoms. That has entailed
excluding both Iran and Iraq from the Arab side of the Gulf. [see L.
Mylroie, "Regional Security After Empire: Saudi Arabia and the Smaller
Gulf States," (Harvard U, doctoral dissertation: 1985)].
Clearly, the Saudis are afraid of Iraq. And they made extensive
preparations to prepare for Khatami's visit, underscoring the importance
Riyadh attaches to improved ties with Iran. Above all, the Saudis
sought to establish a unified GCC position to give them more flexibility
in dealing with Tehran. Thus, the Saudis sought to smooth tensions
between other GCC states and Iran. They succeeded with Bahrain, but not
with the UAE.
On May 1, Prince Sultan, who has been Saudi Arabia's Minister of
Defense since 1964, visited Iran, marking his visit there since before
Iran's revolution, as Reuters, May 1, reported.
On May 4, Bahrain's Foreign Minister also visited Tehran, as Reuters,
May 4, reported. Of all the Gulf shaykhdoms, Bahrain is the closest to
the Saudis and the most dependent on it. It also has a serious quarrel
with Iran, which has been supporting anti-regime activities in the
majority Shiite (55%) shaikhdom. Bahrain's Foreign Minister would not
have visited Iran, save at Saudi direction.
The GCC leaders hold an annual summit in December. On May 10, they
held a day-long "informal" summit, as Reuters, May 10, reported.
Pointedly, UAE head, Shaykh Zayid, did not attend, although the UAE
Foreign Minister did.
Following Khatami's visit to Saudi Arabia, he went to Qatar. There,
he met with Bahrain's Crown Prince, marking the highest-level contacts
between those two countries since the Iranian revolution.
Also, Kuwait's Foreign Minister, May 15, addressed a conference,
held under the sponsorship of the Kuwaiti Foreign Ministry. As Kuwait
Radio, May 15, reported, the "theme" of the conference was "Towards New
Prospects in Relations between the Gulf Cooperation Council Member
States and Iran."
"Iraq News" can only stress that all this would not be happening, if
Saudi Arabia and Kuwait did not feel very threatened by Iraq, as they
recognize that Iran is a big and ambitious country.
Also, the Iranians are becoming concerned about Iraq. There had been
a certain complacency in Tehran, as in the demonology of the Iranians it
was inconceivable that the US would not keep the Saddam threat in check.
They did not anticipate that a time would come when there was no
UNSCOM/IAEA in Iraq and the US would do nothing about it. Thus, the
Iranians are advising those Iraqi opposition figures inclined to work
with the US to do so. That stance was reflected in remarks made by PUK
head, Jalal Talabani, after a two-week visit to Iran, when, according to
Reuters, May 10, he told al-Hayat that the US was "determined to make
1999 the year of change in Iraq," even though Talabani understands that
that is the position of the U.S. Congress, rather than the
administration.
Finally, the Iraqis recognize what is going on. As Reuters, May 23,
reported, a front page editorial in Al Thawra blasted Khatami's visit to
Saudi Arabia, asserting, "There is proof that the rulers of Saudi Arabia
are preparing a new plot against Iraq and that Iran should participate
in that plot."
I. SAUDI DEFENSE MINISTER VISITS IRAN
Saudi Arabian Defence Minister Visits Iran
TEHRAN, May 1 (Reuters) - Saudi Arabian Defence Minister Prince Sultan
bin Abdul-Aziz arrived in Tehran on Saturday and said his visit was
aimed at improving relations between the two countries. He was met at
the airport by Iran's Vice-President Hassan Habibi and Defence Minister
Ali Shamkhani, and said his talks with officials would aim to improve
relations in all areas.
The Saudi Press Agency had said talks would cover all issues but
would focus on regional stability. Iran's ambassador in Riyadh said the
prince was expected to sign a defence agreement. The two states
recently settled a dispute over Iranian oil production levels, paving
the way for a broader deal between oil producers to cut output and
raise low prices. The deal was another sign of improving relations
between the two neighbours, whose ties have often been marked by
suspicion since the 1979 Islamic revolution that toppled Iran's
Western-backed monarchy.
The 1997 election of the moderate President Mohammad Khatami has
eased fears among regional monarchies of the Islamic Republic's arms
programme and suspected support for Moslem militants.
Iran has in turn denounced defence cooperation between Gulf states
and Western powers, especially the United States, whom it says should
remove its forces from the Gulf.
It has repeatedly called for regional cooperation to ensure regional
security.
"A native and regional defence regime is the most important factor in
removing dangerous challenges and raising the safety ratio in the
strategic Persian Gulf region," the daily Ettelaat on Saturday quoted
Shamkhani as saying.
II. BAHRAINI FOREIGN MINISTER VISITS IRAN
Iran Says Bahraini Visit Opens New Chapter in Ties
TEHRAN, May 4 (Reuters) - Iranian Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi said
on Tuesday a visit to Iran by his Bahraini counterpart heralded reduced
tensions between the two Gulf neighbours.
The official Iranian news agency IRNA quoted Kharrazi as saying he
hoped Sheikh Mohammad bin Mubarak al-Khalifa's visit "would open new
horizons of interests" for the two states.
Kharrazi was also reported as saying at a joint news conference that
with this visit and the recent exchange of ambassadors by the two states
"a new chapter has been opened" in relations between Iran and Bahrain.
In 1996, Bahrain accused Iran of seeking to overthrow its government
and diplomatic relations were downgraded. Iran denied the charges.
Bahrain, like other Gulf Arab states, has treated Iran with
suspicion since the 1979 Islamic revolution there. However, a charm
offensive since 1997 by the moderate Iranian president, Mohammad
Khatami, has led to a steady warming of ties and more contacts between
the Islamic republic and pro-Western Arab states across the strategic
Gulf waterway.
Iran, which opposes the presence of U.S. and Western forces in the
region, has regularly called for a security pact with the Gulf Arab
states, who have shown no support for the idea.
IRNA quoted Sheikh Mohammad as saying "Bahraini officials believe
that cooperation between Manama and Tehran is highly important and such
a cooperation should be built first in political and economic fields and
then in security affairs."
The Saudi defence minister, Prince Sultan, who has also been visiting
Iran, made similar comments on the issue of military cooperation. The
two states should start by developing economic, social and cultural
ties, the Saudi minister said.
III. INFORMAL GCC SUMMIT
Focus-Gulf Arab Leaders Conclude Jeddah Meeting
JEDDAH, May 10 (Reuters) - Gulf Arab leaders held a one-day informal
gathering in Saudi Arabia on Monday at a time when non-Arab neighbour
Iran is trying to rebuild ties with them.
The absence of the president of the United Arab Emirates, Sheikh Zaid
bin Sultan al-Nahayan, was seen by analysts as reflecting the UAE's
dismay that powerful regional ally Saudi Arabia was moving toward
improving its relationship with Iran.
Leaders and delegations from the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council
(GCC) ended their meeting in Jeddah without issuing a final communique.
A press statement by GCC Secretary-Genreral Jameel al-Hujailan
stressed the informal nature of the meeting and said it was held within
guidelines set earlier by the leaders which called for a one-day meeting
without an agenda, a final statement and the usual ceremonies that
accompany Gulf summits.
It also said the guidleines allowed for heads of states to be
represented by high-ranking delegations.
The Jeddah meeting was attended by the leaders of Qatar, Bahrain and
Kuwait and the high-ranking officials from the UAE and Oman.
The Omani News Agency said Fahd bin Mahmoud al-Said, Oman's deputy
prime minister for cabinet affairs, would represent Sultan Qaboos at the
talks but gave no reason for the sultan's absence.
Officials played down possible rifts over regional powerhouse Saudi
Arabia's improved ties with Iran.
The statement did not mention whether the Gulf Arab leaders had
discussed the issue of Iran.
Analysts said the meeting could have provided an opportunity to
address the issue of Iran's ties with its Gulf Arab neighbours
especially at a time when Iranian President Mohammad Khatami is about to
make a landmark visit to Saudi Arabia.
The UAE has a long-standing dispute with Iran over three strategic
islands near a key shipping lane in the Gulf.
"I think it's very interesting these visits between Saudi Arabia and
the Iranians. I think the UAE believes that some GCC countries,
especially Saudi Arabia, have put a very big question mark on their
priorities. Is it to get close to Iran or to each other? This is a major
problem," said a Gulf analyst.
The absence of Sheikh Zaid -- the region's elder statesman who makes
frequent calls for Gulf Arab unity -- underscores GCC sensitivities over
regional relations with Iran, Gulf analysts said.
They noted that the Jeddah talks would mark the first time that
Sheikh Zaid was not attending such a high-level gathering of the oil
powers.
A commentator in the London-based, Saudi-owned daily Asharq Al-Awsat
said differences between the six states, including the issue of Iran
ties, threatened to render the alliance meaningless.
Ties between Riyadh and Tehran, often strained since the revolution,
have improved markedly since the moderate Khatami took office in 1997.
Saudi Defence Minister Prince Sultan visited Tehran earlier this
month, holding talks with senior officials, including supreme leader
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Relations have also improved between Iran and Bahrain, a fellow Gulf
Arab state which in 1996 accused Tehran of seeking to overthrow its
government, a charges denied by Iran.
IV. BAHRAINI CROWN PRINCE MEETS KHATAMI
Bahraini Crown Prince Meets Iran's President
DOHA, May 20 (Reuters) - Iranian President Mohammad Khatami on Thursday
met the crown prince of Bahrain, which has in the past accused Iran of
helping guerrillas trying to overthrow Bahrain's government.
Bahrain's official Gulf News Agency said Sheikh Salman bin Hamad
al-Khalifa met the Iranian president as both were visiting Qatar. After
meeting Khatami, the Bahraini crown prince was quoted as saying that
"continuing these meetings between the two countries will without doubt
help lead to solving problems between all states in the region." In
1996, Bahrain accused Iran of plotting with and training a guerrilla
group to overthrow the government. Iran has denied the charge. Earlier
this month, Bahrain said Iran was still hosting the Bahraini opposition
despite improved ties between the two nations.
The Bahraini crown prince also met Qatar's Emir Sheikh Hamad bin
Khalifa al-Thani during his visit. Qatar and Bahrain are locked in a
border dispute over Zubarah, which is on mainland Qatar, and the barren
Hawar islands, which are potentially rich in oil and gas.
The official Qatar News Agency quoted Qatari Foreign Minister Sheikh
Hamad bin Jassim bin Jabr al-Thani as saying differences between the two
countries were coming to an end. "This subject has two courses, either a
brotherly solution which I have spoken on before or through
international arbitration by which we will avoid any misunderstanding,"
he said. Qatar unilaterally took the row to the International Court of
Justice in the Hague in 1991.
V. KUWAIT FOREIGN MINISTER URGES BETTER GCC-IRAN TIES
Title: Kuwait: Foreign minister Urges better GCC -Iran Ties
Document Number: FBIS-NES-1999-0515
Kuwait Radio Kuwait in Arabic 1000 GMT 15 May 99
[FBIS Translated Excerpt] The first deputy prime minister and foreign
minister, Shaykh Sabah al-Ahmad al-Jabir al-Sabah, this morning opened
the conference held by the Centre for Gulf Studies and Arab Peninsula.
The theme of the conference held under the sponsorship of the foreign
minister is: Towards new prospects in relations between the Gulf
Cooperation Council [GCC] member states and Iran.
Addressing the conference, Shaykh Sabah al-Ahmad said that the GCC
member states were seeking broad prospects and additional relations
based on confidence with the Islamic Republic of Iran. [Passage omitted:
The GCC believes in non-interference in internal affairs of other
countries and in peaceful means to settle crises]
Shaykh Sabah al-Ahmad pointed out that Iran's response to the calls
from the GCC and international organizations for a settlement of the
crisis on the three islands in the United Arab Emirates through peaceful
means, including the resort to the International Court of Justice, was
likely to restore confidence and strengthen the positive Iranian moves
to develop its relations with the GCC member states.
He expressed his wish to cooperate with Iran in order to turn the
Middle East into a region without weapons of mass destruction. [Passage
omitted: On the need to develop cultural relations between the two sides
and speeches made by the Kuwaiti education minister and the Iranian
ambassador]
VI. TALABANI, US WANTS TO OVERTHROW SADDAM
Kurd Leader Says U.S. Sees Change in Iraq in 1999
DUBAI, May 10 (Reuters) - An Iraqi Kurdish leader said in a newspaper
interview published on Monday that the United States was determined to
make 1999 the year of change in Iraq. Jalal Talabani, leader of the
Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) -- one of two Kurdish groups that
run northern Iraq -- told the London-based al-Hayat newspaper that the
U.S. had "communicated this statement to the opposition."
"Washington told some governments in the region that 1999 would be
the year of change in Iraq," Talabani said. He attributed the failure
of the opposition to overthrow Iraqi President Saddam Hussein to "a
wrong assumption by the Americans that a military coup" was possible.
"It is almost impossible to have a military coup in Iraq," the
newspaper quoted Talabani as saying.
The Kurdish leader, who was speaking at the end of a two-week visit
to Iran, said the absence of an alliance between Sunni Arab Moslems,
Shi'te Moslems and Kurds to oppose Saddam, was also "a basic reason" for
delayed change in Iraq.
The PUK is one of seven exiled Iraqi opposition groups named by the
United States in January as eligible to share $97 million earmarked to
topple the Baghdad government.
VII. AL THAWRA, CHARGES SAUDI-IRANIAN PLOT
Iraqi Newspaper Accuses Iran, Saudi Arabia of Plot
BAGHDAD, May 23 (Reuters) - An Iraqi newspaper said on Sunday the recent
rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia was part of a plot against
Baghdad.
The accusation in an editorial in the ruling Baath party newspaper
al-Thawra followed a landmark visit to Saudi Arabia last week by
President Mohammad Khatami, the first by an Iranian leader since Iran's
1979 Islamic revolution.
"Such movements are suspicious...and there is proof that the rulers
of Saudi Arabia are preparing a new plot against Iraq and that Iran
should participate in that plot," al-Thawra said in its front-page
editorial.
The paper said the "plot" was discussed during Khatami's visit to
Saudi Arabia -- Iran's former regional rival. Khatami's tour of the Gulf
kingdom, bracketed by visits to Arab neighbours Syria and Qatar, was
seen by the New York Times on Sunday as a major step towards easing
Tehran's isolation from most of its Middle East neighbours.
At the end of Khatami's five-day visit to Saudi Arabia, the two
countries issued a joint statement emphasising the importance of
regional co-operation and the strengthening of ties between them. "The
Iranian-Saudi talks have dealt with Iraq's affairs and discussed a
suspicious American-Saudi plot against Iraq," al-Thawra said, without
giving details of the plot.
Iraq has been at odds with Saudi Arabia in the past, accusing it of
allowing U.S. and British planes of using its territory to launch almost
daily air strikes against targets in southern Iraq.
Relations between Iraq and Iran, old foes of the 1980-88 war, have
been volatile, mainly because each country shelters rebels fighting its
neighbour's government.
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