DATE=3/18/99
TYPE=ENGLISH PROGRAMS FEATURE
NUMBER=7-31649
TITLE=SHI'ITES OF IRAQ (**UPDATES INTRO)
BYLINE=JUDITH LATHAM
TELEPHONE=619-3464
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
EDITOR=SUSAN CLARK
CONTENT =
INTRO: THE GOVERNMENT OF IRAQ SAYS IT HAS ARRESTED FIVE PEOPLE
FOR LAST MONTH'S ASSASSINATION OF THE COUNTRY'S LEADING
SHI'ITE MUSLIM LEADER. THE ALLEGED KILLERS -- WHO ARE
CHARGED WITH GUNNING DOWN THE GRAND AYATOLLAH AND HIS
TWO ADULT SONS -- CONFESSED TO THE CRIME ON AN IRAQI
TELEVISION BROADCAST TODAY/THURSDAY [3/18/99]. THE
MURDERS HAVE RAISED QUESTIONS ABOUT WHETHER SADDAM
HUSSEIN FEARS A POTENTIAL THREAT FROM HIS MAJORITY
SHI'ITE [SHEE-EYET] POPULATION. V-O-A'S JUDITH LATHAM
HAS TALKED WITH SOME REGIONAL ANALYSTS WHO BELIEVE THE
IRAQI LEADER MAY INDEED FEAR SUCH A THREAT, WHETHER
JUSTIFIED OR NOT. HERE'S ______ WITH A REPORT.
TEXT: ON FEBRUARY 19TH, IRAQ'S SENIOR SHI'ITE LEADER,
AYATOLLAH MOHAMMED SADEK AL-SADR [SAH-DEK AL-SAH-DER],
AND HIS TWO SONS WERE SHOT TO DEATH. EXILED IRAQI
OPPOSITION GROUPS AND FOREIGN DIPLOMATS SAY THAT VIOLENT
DEMONSTATIONS SUBSEQUENTLY BROKE OUT IN BAGHDAD, NAJAF,
AND OTHER CITIES IN SOUTHERN IRAQ IN RESPONSE TO THE
KILLINGS. THE IRAQI GOVERNMENT HAS DENIED REPORTS THAT
DOZENS OF PEOPLE WERE KILLED AND SCORES MORE WOUNDED IN
THESE CLASHES. HOWEVER, THE SPOKESMAN IN LONDON FOR THE
OPPOSITION SUPREME COUNCIL OF THE ISLAMIC REVOLUTION IN
IRAQ, HAMED AL-BAYATI [HAHM-ED AL-BYE-YAH-TEE], SAYS THE
SITUATION IN IRAQ REMAINS TENSE.
TAPE: CUT ONE -- AL-BAYATI (0:15)
"WE HAVE CONFIRMED REPORTS. WE HAVE DIRECT CONTACT WITH
PEOPLE INSIDE IRAQ WHO CONFIRM THAT THERE WERE
DEMONSTRATIONS. THERE WERE INJURED PEOPLE, AND PEOPLE
WHO WERE KILLED IN THOSE DEMONSTRATONS, IN ADDITION TO A
CAMPAIGN OF MASS ARRESTS."
TEXT: OPPOSITION LEADERS SAY THE IRAQI GOVERNMENT ORDERED THE
MURDERS TO COUNTER GROWING DISSENT BY IRAQ'S MAJORITY
SHI'ITE POPULATION. THE IRAQI SHI'ITES HAVE FREQUENTLY
COME INTO CONFLICT WITH THE RULING BA'ATH [BAH-ATH]
PARTY OF SADDAM HUSSEIN, WHICH IS LARGELY DRAWN FROM THE
MINORITY SUNNI MUSLIM POPULATION OF CENTRAL IRAQ. THE
IRAQI KURDS, WHO LIVE MOSTLY WITHIN THE NORTHERN NO-FLY
ZONE, ARE ALSO SUNNI MUSLIMS. BUT, THE SHI'ITES LIVE
MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN NO-FLY ZONE, WHICH WAS
ESTABLISHED AFTER THE GULF WAR IN 1991 TO PROTECT THEM
FROM SADDAM HUSSEIN. AND ABOUT HALF THE POPULATION OF
THE CAPITAL CITY OF BAGHDAD IS ALSO SHI'ITE.
IT'S ESTIMATED THAT THE SHI'ITES -- OR SHI'I [SHEE-EE]
AS THEY ARE CALLED IN ARABIC -- COMPRISE BETWEEN 55 AND
65 PERCENT OF THE TOTAL IRAQI POPULATION OF 22 MILLION.
PROFESSOR PETER SLUGLETT IS THE DIRECTOR OF THE MIDDLE
EAST CENTER AT THE UNIVERSITY OF UTAH. HE SAYS IT IS
WIDELY SUSPECTED THAT THE IRAQI GOVERNMENT WAS BEHIND
THE FEBRUARY 19TH ASSASSINATION.
TAPE: CUT TWO -- SLUGLETT (0:16)
"THIS IS WHAT ONE HAS COME TO EXPECT FROM THIS
GOVERNMENT -- THAT ANY OTHER CENTER, OR POLE OF
ATTRACTION, IS LIKELY TO BE DESTROYED BY THE REGIME,
WHICH IS VERY, VERY FEARFUL OF ANY FOCUS OF OPPOSITION
TO ITSELF."
TEXT: THE LEADERS OF THE OPPOSITION SUPREME COUNCIL OF THE
ISLAMIC REVOLUTION IN IRAQ HAVE SUGGESTED THAT, IF
WASHINGTON AND ITS ALLIES ARE SERIOUS ABOUT REPLACING
SADDAM HUSSEIN, THEY MUST FIND WAYS TO PROTECT THE
SHI'ITE COMMUNITIES THAT COULD FORM THE BACKGROUND OF
OPPOSITION TO THE IRAQI PRESIDENT. BUT, PROFESSOR
SLUGLETT SAYS, THERE ARE SERIOUS PRACTICAL PROBLEMS
FACING ANY OPPOSITION MOVEMENT ATTEMPTING TO OVERTHROW
THE IRAQI PRESIDENT.
TAPE: CUT THREE -- SLUGLETT (0:17)
"UNFORTUNATELY, I SEE WASHINGTON'S DESIRE TO FOMENT A
REVOLUTION IN IRAQ AS REALLY RATHER FANCIFUL. TO BE
BRUTALLY FRANK, THE ONLY WAY IN WHICH WASHINGTON IS
LIKELY TO BE ABLE TO REMOVE SADDAM HUSSEIN IS TO INVADE
IRAQ AND ACTUALLY DEFEAT THE IRAQI ARMED FORCES."
TEXT: PROFESSOR SLUGLETT REMINDS THAT IN 1996 THE OPPOSITION
MOVEMENT IN IRAQ WAS INFILTRATED AND ITS RINGLEADERS
WERE ROUNDED UP, TORTURED, AND EXECUTED. AND, IN !991,
HE SAYS, JUST AFTER THE GULF WAR, THE UNITED STATES HAD
FAILED TO SUPPORT A SHI'ITE UPRISING. AND THEIR LEADERS
ARE STILL BITTER ABOUT WHAT THEY REGARD AS A BETRAYAL BY
THE WEST. PROFESSOR SLUGLETT SAYS MANY ARE SKEPTICAL OF
WASHINGTON'S SUPPORT FOR THE IRAQI OPPOSITION.
TAPE: CUT FOUR -- SLUGLETT (0:28)
"WASHINGTON, FOR EXAMPLE, IS VERY KEEN ON BACKING
MODERATE LEADERS AND PREPARING SOME SORT OF
GOVERNMENT-IN-EXILE, IN EFFECT, TO TAKE OVER IN IRAQ.
BUT, THE SORT OF PEOPLE THAT THEY ARE LOOKING AT HAVE NO
FOLLOWING WITHIN IRAQ. IT'S PERHAPS EASY TO SAY THIS
WITH HINDSIGHT, BUT HAD DESERT STORM GONE ON TO BAGHDAD,
HAD THE UNITED STATES BEEN COMPLETELY RESOLUTE IN
QUASHING SADDAM HUSSEIN IN '91, WE WOULD NOT BE HAVING
THIS CONVERSATION."
TEXT: (OPT) PETER SLUGLETT SAYS HE BELIEVES THE RECENT
DEMONSTRATIONS AGAINST THE IRAQI GOVERNMENT REPRESENT A
PUBLIC OUTPOURING OF EMOTION OVER THE MURDER OF THE
LEADING SHI'A [SHE-AH] MUSLIM CLERIC.
TAPE: CUT FIVE -- SLUGLETT (0:23)
"THERE IS A SITUATION OF VERY GREAT FRUSTRATION, BUT
ALSO THE SENSE OF SOLEMN RESIGNATION TO THE REALITY OF
AN EXTREMELY BRUTAL POLICE STATE. HOWEVER, FROM TIME TO
TIME, PEOPLE IN THIS KIND OF SITUATION ARE PUSHED OVER
THE EDGE BY EVENTS THAT THEY SIMPLY CANNOT TOLERATE ANY
MORE. AND I WOULD SUSPECT THAT IS WHAT HAS HAPPENED IN
SOUTHERN IRAQ."
TEXT: THE GOVERNMENT OF SADDAM HUSSEIN, THE PROFESSOR SAYS,
FEARS ANY FORM OF ORGANIZED OPPOSITION.
TAPE : CUT SIX -- SLUGLETT (0:47)
"THIS IS A GOVERNMENT WHICH HAS NO POPULAR MANDATE. AND
AFTER ALL, ONE HAS TO TAKE THE EXAMPLE OF THE ISLAMIC
REPUBLIC OF IRAN, IN WHICH THE OPPOSITION TO AN
UNPOPULAR AND DICTATORIAL REGIME WAS FOMENTED THOUGH
RELIGIOUS INSTITUTIONS AND ORGANIZATIONS. I THINK IT IS
REALLY AS SIMPLE AS THAT. (OPT) THE EFFECT OF
DICTATORIAL REGIMES IS TO EMPHASIZE PRE-POLITICAL
ASSOCIATION -- BY FAMILY, CLAN, LOCALITY, AND ALSO
RELIGION. (END OPT) IT IS THESE KINDS OF DICTATORIAL
REGIMES -- LIKE THE ONE IN IRAN UNDER THE SHAH AND THE
ONE IN IRAQ -- THAT HAVE CREATED RELIGIOUS-BASED
OPPOSITION." (END OPT)
TEXT: PROFESSOR SLUGLETTT, DIRECTOR OF THE MIDDLE EAST CENTER
AT THE UNIVERSITY OF UTAH.
18-Mar-99 8:57 AM EST (1357 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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