DATE=3/4/99
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-42764
TITLE=IRAQ ALLIES (CQ)
BYLINE=LAURIE KASSMAN
DATELINE=LONDON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: AS DEFENSE SECRETARY WILLIAM COHEN HEADS TO THE MIDDLE
EAST TO DISCUSS THE IRAQI SITUATION, CRITICISM OF U-S AND BRITISH
PATROLS OVER SO-CALLED IRAQI NO-FLY ZONES IS ON THE RISE. THE
DAMAGE OF OIL PIPELINE FACILITIES EARLIER THIS WEEK BY U-S
WARPLANES IN NORTHERN IRAQ HAS BROUGHT SHARP WORDS FROM TURKEY
AND NEW COMPLAINTS FROM CHINA AND RUSSIA ABOUT THE PATROLS.
CORRESPONDENT LAURIE KASSMAN LOOKS AT THE RISKS INVOLVED IN
PROLONGING THE STRATEGY.
TEXT: WASHINGTON AND LONDON INSIST THE AIM OF THEIR PATROLS OF
IRAQ'S NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN NO-FLY ZONES HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE
THE END OF THE 1991 GULF WAR -- NAMELY TO PROTECT KURDS AND SHIA
MUSLIMS FROM BAGHDAD'S AGGRESSIONS.
THE ALLIED AIR PATROLS HAVE MORE AGGRESSIVELY RESPONDED TO
CHALLENGES FROM IRAQI AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS SINCE U-S AND BRITISH
AIR STRIKES AGAINST IRAQI MILITARY INSTALLATIONS LAST DECEMBER.
BUT CRITICISM HAS SOARED SINCE AN OIL PIPELINE WAS DAMAGED LAST
SUNDAY DURING A U-S AIR STRIKE AGAINST A SUSPECTED IRAQI
COMMAND-AND-CONTROL SITE.
BRITAIN'S PRIME MINISTER TONY BLAIR DEFENDED THE STRATEGY IN HIS
COMMENTS TO PARLIAMENT ON WEDNESDAY.
/// BLAIR ACT ///
IT IS NECESSARY IN ORDER TO PROTECT BOTH THE KURDISH
PEOPLE AND THE SHIA MUSLIMS FROM THE BRUTALITY OF SADDAM
HUSSEIN. AND IF HE WANTS TO STOP THOSE PATROLS, THEN HE
CAN COME BACK INTO LINE WITH THE U-N RESOLUTIONS TO STOP
BUTCHERING THOSE PEOPLE FOR WHOM HE WAS RESPONSIBILITY
AND START BEHAVING LIKE A RESPONSIBLE LEADER IN THE
WORLD.
/// END ACT ///
BRITAIN'S DEFENSE SECRETARY SAYS IRAQ HAS VIOLATED THE NO-FLY
ZONE RESTRICTIONS 100 TIMES IN THE PAST 11 WEEKS AND HAS ATTACKED
THE ALLIED AIRCRAFT 50 TIMES IN THAT PERIOD.
// OPT // GEORGE ROBERTSON WAS BLUNT WHEN HE JUSTIFIED THE
INCREASED ALLIED ATTACKS DURING A BRITISH RADIO INTERVIEW.
/// ROBERTSON ACT ///
THE IRAQIS ARE TRYING TO KILL THE PILOTS WHO ARE
POLICING THE NO-FLY ZONES. IF THEY STOP TRYING TO KILL
OUR PILOTS THEN WE'LL STOP DEFENDING OURSELVES. WE WON'T
NEED TO DEFEND OURSELVES.
/// END ACT /// /// END OPT ///
MIDDLE EAST EXPERT NEIL PARTRICK OF THE "ROYAL UNITED SERVICES
INSTITUTE FOR DEFENSE STUDIES" SAYS THE MORE AGGRESSIVE AIR
PATROLS ARE PART OF THE OVERALL STRATEGY OF RATCHETING-UP
[TIGHTENING] THE PRESSURE ON SADDAM HUSSEIN, ESPECIALLY WHEN
WORLD ATTENTION WAS FOCUSED ELSEWHERE.
/// FIRST PARTRICK ACT ///
IT'S BEEN A TACTICAL RESPONSE BY BRITAIN AND AMERICA TO
THIS WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO PUT MORE PRESSURE ON
SADDAM HUSSEIN, SHORT OF MUCH MEDIA OR INTERNATIONAL
CONCERN ABOUT WHAT'S GOING ON. I THINK THE BROAD
STRATEGY REMAINS THE SAME -- AND THAT'S AN ACTIVE
CONTAINMENT OF SADDAM, WHICH IS BACKED UP BY MILITARY
FORCE.
/// END ACT ///
BUT MR. PARTRICK SAYS THE DAMAGE TO THE OIL PIPELINE COULD
UNDERMINE U-S AND BRITISH CREDIBILITY IN THE ARAB WORLD. OTHER
ANALYSTS SUGGEST THE PIPELINE DAMAGE WILL BE SEEN AS DISREGARD
FOR THE POLITICAL REPERCUSSIONS OF MILITARY ACTIONS.
MR. PARTRICK SAYS IT ALSO POINTS UP THE RISK OF PROLONGING THE
MILITARY STRATEGY, WHICH OPENS THE WAY FOR MORE ACCIDENTS, OR THE
WORST-CASE SCENARIO -- THE DOWNING OF AN ALLIED AIRCRAFT INSIDE
IRAQ.
THE PIPELINE INCIDENT ALSO HAS RENEWED A SPLIT AMONG KEY MEMBERS
OF THE U-N SECURITY COUNCIL AHEAD OF NEXT MONTH'S CRUCIAL REVIEW
OF U-N POLICY TOWARD IRAQ. CHINA AND RUSSIA CRITICIZE THE NO-FLY
ZONE PATROLS. FRANCE WILL PUSH FOR A MORE DIPLOMATIC APPROACH.
MR. PARTRICK PREDICTS THAT AS A RESULT, IT WILL BE HARD TO MAKE
PROGRESS IN THE U-N DEBATE NEXT MONTH.
/// OPT SECOND PARTRICK ACT ///
IT WILL BRING OUT THE WHOLE DEBATE IN AN INTERNATIONAL
FORA ON WHAT THE POLICY SHOULD BE AND IT WILL BRING INTO
QUESTION, DIRECTLY OR AT LEAST INDIRECTLY, THIS ACTION
BY BRITAIN AND AMERICA IN THE NO-FLY ZONES.
/// END ACT /// /// END OPT ///
MIDDLE EAST EXPERT NEIL PARTRICK SAYS THERE IS LITTLE INDICATION
THAT PROLONGING THE DAILY BOMBINGS OF IRAQ'S AIR DEFENSE SITES
WILL TRIGGER ANY POLITICAL CHANGES INSIDE IRAQ. (SIGNED)
NEB/LMK/PCF/WTW
04-Mar-99 3:04 PM EST (2004 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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