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16 February 1999

IRAQI THREATS AGAINST NEIGHBORS SAID TO SHOW GROWING ISOLATION

(Bacon says any Iraqi attack would meet swift response) (900)
By Jacquelyn S. Porth
USIA Security Affairs Writer
Washington -- An Iraqi missile attack against allied air bases in the
Middle East "would be a huge mistake on Saddam Hussein's part," says
the Pentagon's spokesman.
Assistant Secretary of Defense Ken Bacon told reporters at the Defense
Department February 16 that "any attack by Iraq against one of our
allies in the region would be a severe mistake and would be met with a
very swift and sure response."
Bacon's comments came as Iraq's Foreign Minister was quoted by Radio
Monte Carlo as saying that if the Incirlik Air Base in Turkey
continues to be used by coalition aircraft to attack Iraq "the threats
of an Iraqi response may also affect it."
Bacon said Iraq's latest threats reflect "a sign of Saddam Hussein's
desperation and isolation." The Iraqi leader "has tried diplomacy with
his neighbors...tried to cajole them into supporting his position, and
that has failed," he said. Now, Bacon said, the Iraqi president has
turned to threats which "will get him nowhere."
Earlier in the year, the Iraqi president had called upon the citizens
of Kuwait and Saudi Arabia to revolt against their leaders. His
exhortation received a cool reception. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and
Turkey have made it very clear, the spokesman said, that the United
Nations Security Council resolutions should be honored.
Whether Saddam Hussein's threats against Turkish, Kuwaiti or Saudi
assets is meant to be taken seriously or not, Bacon said "we have to
take seriously a threat like this." The United States maintains a
significant deterrent capability in the region, he said, including
Patriot air defense batteries.
Bacon sketched out three scenarios for a possible Iraqi attack in the
region: by Scud missiles, through an air assault, or via some kind of
a terrorist incident. Given the state of Iraq's air force and the
allied enforcement of the northern and southern no-fly zones, each of
the scenarios would be difficult to carry out, he said.
Iraq's integrated air defense system has sustained "some fairly heavy
losses," the spokesman noted, due to its frequent challenges of
coalition aircraft patrolling the no-fly zones. What will the future
bring? "I have no reason to believe that those damaging
counter-strikes will end until Iraq stops challenging the coalition
aircraft policing the no-fly zone," he replied.
Bacon said he does not think Iraq has sufficient air power to launch
"a longer range attack against bases deep inside another country's
territory and it would be extremely unwise...to try to do that given
the air defenses that are in the area."
The Patriot batteries are designed to defend against Scud attacks with
batteries positioned in Turkey, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Israel. Iraq
claims to have destroyed all of its Scud missiles since the end of the
Gulf war, but Ambassador Richard Butler, head of the UN Special
Commission, has said it is possible that some still exist. Bacon
quoted from a 1998 U.S. government White Paper on Iraq's Weapons of
Mass Destruction which reports that all but two of Iraq's 819 Scuds
have been accounted for in the disarmament process.
But Bacon also raised the possibility that Iraq might have
manufactured some Scuds indigenously from parts "it had either
manufactured or purchased over the years." Arms control experts "don't
have full visibility on that," he added.
Iraq's recent threats are attributed by the Pentagon to Baghdad's
increasing political isolation. Bacon says, however, that Iraq can
easily put an end to the existing pressures by complying with the UN
Security Council mandates. "Should Iraq comply," he said, "it would
not find itself under the pressure that it is facing today."
Examining historical precedent, Bacon said coalition aircraft have
flown "tens and tens of thousands of sorties over Iraq to police the
no-fly zone, and in the overwhelming number of cases, they have not
resisted or shown any signs of attacking coalition aircraft." He said
it has only been since the end of "Operation Desert Fox" in December
1998 that the Iraqis have been displaying aggressive behavior.
Iraqi aircraft have violated the no-fly zones by flying "cheat and
retreat" missions and Iraqi air defense sites have turned on their
radars, Bacon said. In addition, the Iraqis have fired anti-aircraft
batteries and launched missiles at coalition aircraft in the past five
to six weeks.
In each case, the spokesman said "we have responded properly against
these attacks, and we will continue to respond properly." Asked if the
coalition response amounts to a constant air war, Bacon said: "I call
this an act of defense on the part of our pilots and they are working
as best they can to protect themselves and to carry out their
missions."
Asked about reports that the Russians may have agreed to help Iraq
modernize its air defense network, Bacon pointed out that the Russians
themselves have denied such accounts. The spokesman went on to say:
"It would strike me as a particularly dangerous act on the part of any
country to sell weapons to Iraq in violation of the UN arms embargo,
particularly a country that is trying to operate through the Security
Council to convince Iraq to live up to the UN Security Council
mandates."