DATE=2/1/99
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-42490
TITLE=QUESTIONING AID TO THE IRAQI OPPOSITION
BYLINE= ED WARNER
DATELINE= WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: WASHINGTON IS DIVIDED ON U-S AID TO THE IRAQI
OPPOSITION. THE CONGRESS AND THE PRESIDENT ARE IN FAVOR, BUT THE
MILITARY IS SKEPTICAL. THE COMMANDER OF U-S FORCES IN THE PERSIAN
GULF TOLD CONGRESS THE OPPOSITION HAS LITTLE CHANCE OF
SUCCEEDING, AND ITS EFFORTS COULD LEAD TO CHAOS IN IRAQ. OTHERS
SAY THAT THINKING IS TOO PESSIMISTIC AND TENDS TO UNDERMINE THE
AID PROGRAM. VOA'S ED WARNER REPORTS.
TEXT: TESTIFYING RECENTLY BEFORE THE SENATE ARMED SERVICES
COMMITTEE, THE U-S COMMANDER IN THE PERSIAN GULF, MAJOR GENERAL
ANTHONY ZINNI, SAID THE MILITARY AID VOTED FOR THE IRAQI
OPPOSITION IS ILL ADVISED. IN HIS OPINION, THE OPPOSITION IS TOO
FRAGMENTED. ITS VARIOUS GROUPS ARE UNWILLING TO COOPERATE AND
COULD BRING CHAOS, EVEN DISINTEGRATION TO IRAQ.
IN RESPONSE, A U-S STATE DEPARTMENT SPOKESMAN SAID THE CLINTON
ADMINISTRATION IS SOLIDLY BEHIND THE 97 MILLION DOLLAR AID
PACKAGE VOTED BY CONGRESS, THOUGH IT SHARES THE GENERAL'S CONCERN
THAT THIS IS NOT GOING TO BE AN EASY OR SHORT TERM EFFORT.
JAMES PHILLIPS, A MIDDLE EAST ANALYST AT THE PRIVATE HERITAGE
FOUNDATION, SAYS THE PENTAGON IS VERY CAUTIOUS ABOUT SUPPLYING
WEAPONS ABROAD OR GETTING THE UNITED STATES INVOLVED IN THE USE
OF FORCE:
// PHILLIPS ACT //
SECRETARY OF DEFENSE (WILLIAM) COHEN PREVIOUSLY HAD
EXPRESSED THIS CAUTION ON THE DAY PRESIDENT CLINTON
ANNOUNCED SUPPORT FOR THE IRAQI OPPOSITION. SO THIS IS
KIND OF A CONTINUING POLICY OF THE PENTAGON. BUT IT IS
TROUBLING BECAUSE IT DOES SUGGEST THERE IS SOME
DIFFERENCE OF OPINION BETWEEN THE PENTAGON AND THE STATE
DEPARTMENT.
// END ACT //
PERHAPS NOT AS MUCH AS THE HEADLINES SUGGEST. A KEY STATE
DEPARTMENT OFFICIAL SAYS THE SPLIT IS EXAGGERATED. HE NOTES AID
TO THE IRAQI OPPOSITION IS ONE OF SEVERAL POLICIES AIMED AT THE
OVERTHROW OF SADDAM HUSSEIN. THE IRAQI LEADER IS NOT LIKELY TO
MAKE TOO MUCH OF THE DISPUTE OVER AID BECAUSE HE TAKES HIS OWN
READING OF THE WASHINGTON SCENE, AND IT MAY DIFFER MARKEDLY FROM
AMERICAN PERCEPTIONS.
REPUBLICANS IN THE U-S CONGRESS ARE THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THE
AID. SOME ANALYSTS SUGGEST THE CLINTON ADMINISTRATION MAY NOT
FULLY SHARE THEIR ENTHUSIASM, AND ITS POSITION IS NOT THAT FAR
REMOVED FROM THE PENTAGON'S.
THERE IS THE ADDITIONAL QUESTION OF WHAT KIND OF AID SHOULD BE
PROVIDED. THE KURDS IN NORTHERN IRAQ, FOR EXAMPLE, ARE RELUCTANT
TO ACCEPT ANY THAT WOULD ANTAGONIZE SADDAM HUSSEIN, WHO IS
CURRENTLY LEAVING THEM ALONE. TURKEY, WHICH IS FIGHTING A LONG
WAR WITH KURDISH REBELS IN ITS SOUTH, DOES NOT WANT MORE WEAPONS
SUPPLIED TO KURDS ACROSS THE BORDER IN IRAQ.
DANIEL BYMAN, A POLICY ANALYST AT RAND, A PRIVATE RESEARCH
ORGANIZATION, SAYS THE CLINTON ADMINISTRATION IS UNDER PRESSURE
FROM REPUBLICANS IN CONGRESS TO BRING THE CONFLICT WITH IRAQ TO
SOME KIND OF CONCLUSION. ARAB NATIONS ARE ALSO IMPATIENT WITH U-S
POLICY. SO THE ADMINISTRATION NEEDED A NEW PLAN.
UNFORTUNATELY, LIKE THE PENTAGON, MR. BYMAN BELIEVES IT IS
FLAWED:
// BYMAN ACT //
THE MAJOR KURDISH GROUPS HAVE FOUGHT WITH EACH OTHER.
THE MOST IMPORTANT SEGMENTS OF THE OPPOSITION HAVE NOT
COORDINATED THEIR ACTIONS IN ANY COMPREHENSIVE,
SYSTEMATIC WAY, AND INSTEAD HAVE OFTEN GONE THEIR OWN
WAYS AND SHOWN LITTLE UNITY.
// END ACT //
MR. BYMAN ADDS THAT THE UNITED STATES HAS LET THE KURDS DOWN IN
THE PAST. HE WOULD NOT LIKE TO SEE ANOTHER ABANDONMENT.
BUT MR. PHILLIPS OF THE HERITAGE FOUNDATION SAYS THE KURDS COULD
CHANGE THEIR MIND:
// PHILLIPS ACT //
AS WE HAVE SEEN BEFORE, SADDAM TENDS TO LASH OUT EVEN
WHEN HE IS NOT PROVOKED. AND IF AND WHEN HE DOES, I
THINK THE KURDS' ATTITUDE ABOUT ACCEPTING OUTSIDE
ASSISTANCE WILL CHANGE VERY QUICKLY.
// END ACT //
MR. PHILLIPS ADDS ACHIEVING COOPERATION AMONG OPPOSITION GROUPS
NOW WOULD HELP KEEP IRAQ UNIFIED WHEN SADDAM HUSSEIN IS GONE.
RAND ANALYST BYMAN SAYS THERE MUST BE A SOLID CENTRAL AUTHORITY
TO REPLACE SADDAM:
// BYMAN ACT //
IF THERE IS NO STRONG REGIME, THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY
THAT IT COULD BREAK UP ETHNICALLY, RELIGIOUSLY, ALONG
TRIBAL LINES, THAT THERE COULD BE CHAOS AND FIGHTING.
THE QUESTION THE UNITED STATES HAS TO ASK: IS IT WORTH
RISKING INCREASED INSTABILITY TO OVERTHROW SADDAM? I
WOULD SAY CERTAINLY YES, BUT WE HAVE TO RECOGNIZE THAT
IRAQ COULD THEN BECOME A LONG TERM PROBLEM IF CHAOS
ENGULFED IT.
// END ACT //
AND THAT IS THE PROBLEM GENERAL ZINNI AND THE PENTAGON ARE TRYING
TO AVOID. (SIGNED)
NEB/PT
01-Feb-99 8:33 PM EST (0133 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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