DATE=1/28/99
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-42471
TITLE=IRAQ AFTER SADDAM
BYLINE= ED WARNER
DATELINE= WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRODUCTION: AFTER SADDAM HUSSEIN GOES, WHAT HAPPENS TO IRAQ?
WOULD IT BE MUCH THE SAME, OR DEMOCRATIC, OR EVEN BREAK UP?
THESE POSSIBILITIES WERE DISCUSSED BY SPEAKERS AT A RECENT
MEETING (THURS., JAN. 28) ON CAPITOL HILL. VOA'S ED WARNER
REPORTS.
TEXT: THE SITUATION IN POST-SADDAM IRAQ WILL BE UNEASY, PERHAPS
TUMULTUOUS, ACCORDING TO PARTICIPANTS AT A RECENT MEETING OF THE
MIDDLE EAST POLICY COUNCIL, A PRIVATE ORGANIZATION IN WASHINGTON.
ELLEN LAIPSON -- A MIDDLE EAST SPECIALIST AT THE CENTRAL
INTELLIGENCE AGENCY --SAYS DO NOT EXPECT WESTERN-STYLE DEMOCRACY
TO EMERGE ANY TIME SOON:
// LAIPSON ACT //
THERE IS PROBABLY A RESIDUAL LONGING AMONG MANY IRAQIS
FOR AN AUTHORITARIAN LEADER WHO WILL BE ABLE TO SOLVE
PROBLEMS, WHO WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE DECISIONS AND GET
THINGS DONE IN A PERIOD AFTER SADDAM. MANY IRAQIS
PROBABLY DO SUPPORT A FORM OF LEADERSHIP AND GOVERNANCE
THAT DOES NOT MEET WESTERN STANDARDS OF DEMOCRACY. WHAT
THEY MAY WANT IS SIMPLY A LESS CRUEL VERSION OF WHAT
THEY CURRENTLY HAVE.
// END ACT //
ELLEN LAIPSON SAID ISLAMISTS MAY ACQUIRE MORE POWER IN REACTION
TO THE SUFFERING CAUSED BY ECONOMIC SANCTIONS.
ANOTHER ANALYST -- PATRICK CLAWSON -- SAYS WASHINGTON CAN
PROBABLY LIVE WITH A NON-DEMOCRATIC POST SADDAM REGIME AS LONG AS
IT SEEKS BETTER RELATIONS WITH ITS NEIGHBORS AND THE UNITED
STATES.
DIRECTOR OF RESEARCH AT THE WASHINGTON INSTITUTE FOR NEAR EAST
POLICY, MR. CLAWSON SAID U-S MILITARY ASSISTANCE TO THE IRAQI
OPPOSITION SHOULD MAKE IT MORE ACCOMMODATING TO THE UNITED STATES
WHEN IT COMES TO POWER:
// CLAWSON ACT //
THERE ARE GOVERNMENTS AROUND THE WORLD WHICH ARE NOT
DEMOCRATIC, WHICH ARE UNDER STRONG INFLUENCE OF QUITE
TRADITIONAL CONSERVATIVE ISLAMIC RELIGIOUS PRACTICES
THAT ARE INDEED FRIENDLY TO THE UNITED STATES. THIS NEW
GOVERNMENT IN IRAQ, BROUGHT TO POWER BY SIGNIFICANT U-S
MILITARY SUPPORT FOR AN OPPOSITION, WOULD CHANGE THE
SITUATION IN THE REGION SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE BENEFIT OF
THE UNITED STATES.
// END ACT //
MR. CLAWSON SAID A MORE MODERATE IRAQI REGIME WOULD ALLOW THE
UNITED STATES TO REDUCE ITS ARMED FORCES IN THE REGION AND WOULD
REMOVE A THREAT TO ISRAEL.
BUT THAT ENVISIONS A MORE BENIGN GOVERNMENT THAN IS LIKELY TO
EMERGE, RESPONDS ANDREW PARASILITI, DIRECTOR OF PROGRAMS AT THE
MIDDLE EAST INSTITUTE. HE SAID U-S SANCTIONS HAVE CRIPPLED BOTH
THE ECONOMY AND THE CIVIL SOCIETY:
// PARASILITI ACT //
ECONOMIC GROWTH, INCLUDING SOME MEASURE OF DEBT AND
REPARATIONS RELIEF, WILL BE ESSENTIAL TO ESTABLISHING
STABILITY IN POST-SADDAM IRAQ. IT IS EASY TO ENVISION A
DEMAGOGIC OR A NATIONALIST FIGURE RAILING AGAINST THE
UNJUST BURDENS IMPOSED BY THE OUTSIDE WORLD FOR THE
CRIMES OF THE PREVIOUS REGIME.
// END ACT //
TO PREVENT SUCH AN OUTCOME, MR. PARASILITI SAID THE WEST SHOULD
ANNOUNCE A MASSIVE AID PROGRAM FOR POST-SADDAM IRAQ.
BUT EVEN THAT MAY NOT HOLD IRAQ TOGTHER. REND RAHIM FRANCKE,
EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR OF THE IRAQ FOUNDATION, AN OPPOSITION GROUP,
WARNS THERE ARE TOO MANY COMPETING FACTIONS THAT WILL NOT
COOPERATE WITH ONE ANOTHER. THERE ARE ALSO ANXIOUS, PERHAPS
PREDATORY NEIGHBORS:
// FRANCKE ACT //
I AM NOT SO MUCH CONCERNED WHAT IRAQ CAN DO TO OTHERS
BUT WHAT OTHERS CAN DO TO IRAQ. MY FEAR IS COMPOUNDED
BECAUSE THE REGIONAL COUNTRIES HAVE SUCH CONFLICTING
INTERESTS IN IRAQ, HAVE SUCH SUSPICIONS OF EACH OTHER
WHEN IT COMES TO IRAQ, THAT ANY MEDDLING BY ONE COUNTRY
IS GOING TO INVITE MEDDLING BY OTHERS, AND BECAUSE OF
THE WEAKNESS AND FRAGILITY OF THE IRAQI STATE, THE
POTENTIAL TO DESTABILIZE IS GOING TO BE IMMENSE.
// END ACT //
IRAQ FOUNDATION DIRECTOR FRANCKE SAID PRESSURES WITHIN IRAQ FROM
THE KURDS IN THE NORTH AND THE SHIA IN THE SOUTH, ALONG WITH
INCURSIONS OF NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES, COULD LEAD TO THE BREAK-UP
OF IRAQ AND INSTABILITY THROUGHOUT THE REGION.
FOR NOW, THE SPEAKERS CONCEDED THEY ARE ONLY SPECULATING SINCE
SADDAM HUSSEIN REMAINS IN POWER, AND NO ONE CAN SAY HOW LONG THAT
WILL LAST. (SIGNED)
NEB/EW/WFR
28-Jan-99 7:17 PM EST (0017 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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