22 January 1999
CSIS' CORDESMAN DETAILS IRAQI THREAT, NEED TO CONTINUE SANCTIONS
(Iraq seen as "absolutely committed to proliferation") (720) By Rick Marshall USIA Staff Writer Washington -- Anthony Cordesman, a senior fellow for strategic assessment at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, gave a chilling lecture on Iraq's past and present military capabilities January 22, building a solid case for maintaining military sanctions and questioning whether anyone who studied the matter seriously could expect the regime to change the course it has followed unwaveringly for the past 20 years if military sanctions are lifted. "What do you think is going to change" if sanctions are removed, he asked, pointing to Iraq's 400,000-man army, its 100,000-man internal security force, and its record of internal repression, external aggression, and vast expenditures on conventional and unconventional weapons. "Military sanctions work," Cordesman said with an eye to the U.N. Security Council. The longer sanctions stay in place, the more important they become; as Iraq's military equipment becomes more obsolete, the less Saddam Hussein can threaten the region. While a good deal of Iraq's conventional military equipment is indeed becoming obsolete, it still is superior to anything his neighbors possess. Added to this, of course, must be its determination to develop weapons of mass destruction. "This country is absolutely committed to proliferation," Cordesman said of Iraq's pursuit of weapons of mass destruction. Anyone who doubts that needs to read UNSCOM's reports, he said. "If it were not for the American presence in the region, there would be no containment," he stressed. Cordesman saw almost no prospect that Iraq's "weak and divided opposition" could pose any threat to Saddam Hussein, nor that the help that the United States is now planning to provide some opposition groups will make much difference. The most serious threat to Saddam Hussein's regime lies in his own internal security forces, Cordesman said. While there have been many internal coup attempts, they have all failed. Nonetheless, "a one-bullet election" could take place at any time. But even that would not be likely to change Iraqi behavior much, Cordesman argued. Containment will continue to be needed long into the future. Cordesman issued a report entitled "The Iraqi Threat After Desert Fox" at the briefing. It is available on the Internet, along with many other Middle East Net Assessment Reports he has issued, at www.csis.org. Among the many graphs and figures in his report is one that shows that Iraqi gross national product has been declining almost continually since its high point in 1979, when the international oil crisis and Iran's temporary absence from the oil market combined to give the country a per capita income of over $8,000. The Iran-Iraq War had an immediate and devastating effect on Iraq's GNP, however, driving it down to $3,207 by 1982. After a temporary rise, it fell again steadily throughout that war, before flattening out at somewhere around $800 for this decade. Thus Cordesman concludes, U.N. sanctions hardly drove the Iraqis into poverty. Iraq's problems began a long time before then. In addition to the effect that the Iran-Iraq War had on Iraqi productivity, other factors, such as declining oil prices and a high birth rate, also have to be considered. While the country may not be averaging the extraordinary 4.1 percent annual population growth rate that Iraqi census figures claim, World Bank figures suggest that the country grew from 13 million to 21 million between 1980 and 1996. Iraqi military spending rose consistently and dramatically throughout the 1970s and 1980s, starting at about a billion dollars in 1970 and reaching a peak of approximately 24 billion in 1987 toward the conclusion of the Iran-Iraq War. Iraqi spending on military and security consistently averaged between one-fourth and one-third of GNP throughout this period, Cordesman's figures show. It is precisely this trend which Cordesman predicts would resume as soon as sanctions on Iraqi military spending are lifted. Iraq has never been a member of the family of nations, he said, nor will it ever be under Saddam Hussein. On the other hand, he said simply, "if the sanctions stay ... this country can't rebuild and it can't rearm."
|
NEWSLETTER
|
| Join the GlobalSecurity.org mailing list |
|
|
|
