DATE=1/22/99
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-42418
TITLE=IRAQ/NATIONAL SECURITY
BYLINE=JIM RANDLE
DATELINE=PENTAGON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: A NEW ASSESSMENT OF DECEMBER'S "DESERT FOX" AIR ATTACKS ON
IRAQ SAYS THE EFFORT WAS TOO SMALL AND TIMID TO CHANGE THE
MILITARY SITUATION IN THE PERSIAN GULF. THE STUDY BY ANTHONY
CORDESMAN OF THE CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES
(C-S-I-S) IN WASHINGTON, SAYS BAGHDAD REMAINS A SERIOUS THREAT TO
ITS NEIGHBORS. V-O-A'S JIM RANDLE REPORTS THAT MR. CORDESMAN
ALSO SAYS U-S CONGRESSIONAL PLANS TO FORGE IRAQI OPPOSITION
GROUPS INTO AN EFFECTIVE FORCE AGAINST SADDAM HUSSEIN HAVE NO
CHANCE OF SUCCESS.
TEXT: PENTAGON OFFICIALS SAY DESERT FOX'S BOMBS AND MISSILES
DAMAGED IRAQ'S PROGRAMS TO MAKE OR USE GERM AND CHEMICAL WEAPONS,
AND SET BACK BAGHDAD'S MISSILE BUILDING EFFORTS BY ABOUT TWO
YEARS.
C-S-I-S SCHOLAR ANTHONY CORDESMAN SAYS THE ATTACKS SHOWED IRAQ
THAT WASHINGTON IS WILLING TO USE FORCE, AND THAT U-S PLANES CAN
HIT KEY TARGETS ANYWHERE AND ANYTIME, WITHOUT HURTING MANY
CIVILIANS. HE SAYS DESERT FOX ALSO SHOWED THAT U-S FORCES COULD
OPERATE WITHOUT PLACING MAJOR POLITICAL BURDENS ON AMERICA'S
RELUCTANT GULF ALLIES.
/// CORDESMAN ACT ///
WHAT WE DIDN'T DO WAS SHOW THAT WE COULD MATERIALLY
CHANGE THE MILITARY SITUATION OR THE THREAT.
/// END ACT ///
/// OPT /// MR. CORDESMAN IS CO-DIRECTOR OF MIDDLE EAST STUDIES
AT THE PRIVATE CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES IN
WASHINGTON. HE HAS BEEN STUDYING MIDEAST MILITARY ISSUES FOR
DECADES. /// END OPT ///
MR. CORDESMAN SAYS THE AIR ATTACKS WRECKED SOME CRITICAL IRAQI
EQUIPMENT THAT WILL BE HARD FOR BAGHDAD TO REPLACE AS LONG AS
SANCTIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT. HE SAYS THOSE TARGETS INCLUDED
FACILITIES TO PRODUCE AND REPAIR MISSILES.
BUT MORE THAN 95 PERCENT OF IRAQI AIR DEFENSES SURVIVED,
ACCORDING TO MR. CORDESMAN, AS DID MOST OF THE AGING,
POORLY-MAINTAINED IRAQI AIR FORCE.
HE SAYS BRITISH FORCES OVERSTATED CLAIMS THAT THEY DESTROYED A
FLEET OF REMOTE-CONTOLLED AIR CRAFT FITTED OUT TO DISPENSE GERM
WEAPONS, AND CALLED ALLIED ATTACKS ON AIR FIELDS "INEFFECTIVE
TOKEN EFFORTS."
HE ALSO SAYS ESTIMATES THAT TWO THOUSAND MEMBERS OF IRAQ'S ELITE
REPUBLICAN GUARD DIED IN THE ATTACKS ARE PROBABLY TOO HIGH, BUT
SUCH LOSSES WOULDN'T HAVE A SERIOUS IMPACT ON THAT 80-THOUSAND
PERSON FORCE IN ANY CASE.
MR. CORDESMAN SAYS MASSIVE IRAQI MILITARY LOSSES IN THE 1991 GULF
WAR, AND FURTHER LOSSES DURING THE DESERT FOX ATTACKS, STILL
LEAVE BAGHDAD STRONGER THAN ITS NEIGHBORS.
/// CORDESMAN ACT ///
IRAQ WITH 2700 TANKS COMPETES WITH IRAN WITH 14 HUNDRED
(TANKS). IRAN HAS A HIGHER RATE OF OBSOLESCENCE (I.E.
OUTDATED TANKS) THAN IRAQ. WITH ABOUT 800 (TANKS) IN
SAUDI ARABIA, SOMETHING LIKE HALF ARE OPERATIONAL IN A
MEANINGFUL SENSE, AND 180 IN KUWAIT, OF WHICH ABOUT 100
MAY BE OPERATIONAL.
/// END ACT ///
THE U-S CONGRESS HAS ORDERED THE PENTAGON AND STATE DEPARTMENT TO
SEE IF THEY CAN ORGANIZE IRAQI OPPOSITION GROUPS INTO A FORCE
THAT CAN HELP TOPPLE IRAQI LEADER SADDAM HUSSEIN. MR. CORDESMAN
SAYS SUCH EFFORTS TO TURN UNTRAINED PEOPLE -- WHAT HE CALLED
"DILETTANTES" -- INTO A WORLD CLASS FIGHTING FORCE ARE
UNREALISTIC.
/// CORDESMAN ACT ///
HALF-TRAINED OPPOSITION FORCES HAVE ABOUT AS MUCH CHANCE
OF OPERATING MODERN TANKS AND MODERN AIR CRAFT AS A
SNOWFLAKE HAS IN HELL. IT JUST DOESN'T WORK THIS WAY.
/// END ACT ///
HE SAYS OPPOSITION GROUPS WILL BE UP AGAINST THE HALF-MILLION
MEMBERS OF IRAQ'S MILITARY AND INTERNAL SECURITY SERVICES. HE
SAYS REBELLIONS WILL BE DIFFICULT BECAUSE THE THOUSANDS OF IRAQI
SECURITY POLICE ARE "COMPETENT AND EVERYWHERE."
MR. CORDESMAN SAYS BAGHDAD PAYS TO MAINTAIN THIS MASSIVE MILITARY
FORCE, WHILE BLAMING SHORTAGES OF FOOD AND MEDICINE ON ECONOMIC
SANCTIONS. HE SAYS SANCTIONS THAT BLOCK IRAQI ARMS IMPORTS HAVE
LIMITED BAGHDAD'S MILITARY POWER AND SHOULD STAY IN PLACE, THOUGH
HE FAVORS FINDING WAYS TO CHANNEL HUMANITARIAN SUPPLIES TO
ORDINARY IRAQIS. (SIGNED).
NEB/JR/WDC/GE
22-Jan-99 4:47 PM EST (2147 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
.
|
NEWSLETTER
|
|
Join the GlobalSecurity.org mailing list
|
|
|
