DATE=1/8/99
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-42324
TITLE=IRAQ/SADDAM
BYLINE=DOUGLAS ROBERTS
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
*INTRO: U-S OFFICIALS SAY THERE ARE GROWING SIGNS THAT SADDAM
HUSSEIN'S GRIP ON POWER IN IRAQ HAS BEEN WEAKENED, IN PART AS A
RESULT OF LAST MONTH'S AMERICAN AND BRITISH AIRSTRIKES. IRAQI
OPPOSITION GROUPS ECHO THE U-S ASSERTIONS. BUT ARAB AND WESTERN
ANALYSTS CAUTION THAT IT IS FAR TOO EARLY TO PREDICT THE IMMINENT
COLLAPSE OF SADDAM'S RULE. VOA'S DOUGLAS ROBERTS FILED THIS
BACKGROUND REPORT.
TEXT: U-S OFFICIALS POINT TO A NUMBER OF DEVELOPMENTS TO
ILLUSTRATE THEIR CONTENTION THAT SADDAM HUSSEIN'S HOLD ON POWER
IS WEAKENING.
THEY CITE REPORTS FROM IRAQI OPPOSITION GROUPS ABOUT UNREST AMONG
THE SHIA MUSLIMS OF SOUTHERN IRAQ THAT HAS PROMPTED A NEW
CRACKDOWN BY BAGHDAD. THEY ALSO CITE THE REPORTED EXECUTIONS OF
A NUMBER OF SENIOR ARMY OFFICERS, INCLUDING A DIVISIONAL
COMMANDER, EITHER DURING OR IMMEDIATELY AFTER LAST MONTH'S
AMERICAN AND BRITISH AIRSTRIKES.
(OPT) AFTER A LENGTHY REVIEW OF THOSE ATTACKS, U-S DEFENSE
DEPARTMENT OFFICIALS NOW SAY OPERATION 'DESERT FOX' WAS MORE
SUCCESSFUL THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT, BOTH IN TERMS OF THE
DESTRUCTION OF IRAQI WEAPONS SITES AND DAMAGE TO BAGHDAD'S
CONVENTIONAL MILITARY CAPABILITY. THEY SAY AT LEAST SIX
HUNDRED--AND PERHAPS AS MANY AS TWO THOUSAND--OF IRAQ'S ELITE
TROOPS WERE KILLED OR WOUNDED IN THE ATTACKS.(END OPT)
U-S OFFICIALS ARE ALSO POINTING TO A FIERY SPEECH BY SADDAM
HUSSEIN EARLIER THIS WEEK AS FURTHER EVIDENCE OF HIS INCREASING
ISOLATION. IN THAT ADDRESS, THE IRAQI PRESIDENT CALLED FOR THE
OVERTHROW OF OTHER ARAB LEADERS FOR THEIR FAILURE TO SUPPORT HIS
GOVERNMENT.
MARINE CORPS GENERAL ANTHONY ZINNI, THE OVER-ALL COMMANDER OF U-S
FORCES IN THE GULF, CALLED THE SPEECH BOTH REMARKABLE AND
SHOCKING.
///ZINNI ACT///
I THINK THAT (SADDAM SPEECH) WAS CLEAR EVIDENCE OF HIS
ISOLATION. THE LANGUAGE HE USED. HIS ATTACK ON ALL THE
OTHER LEADERS IN THE REGION I THINK SHOWED A DEGREE OF
DESPARATION THAT WE HAD NOT SEEN BEFORE.
///END ACT///
THE RESPONSE FROM ARAB GOVERNMENTS TO THE IRAQI LEADER'S SPEECH
WAS SWIFT AND HARSH. A TYPICAL REACTION CAME IN A CAIRO RADIO
COMMENTARY WHICH SAID THE ARAB WORLD HAS NEVER KNOWN A WORSE
DICTATOR THAN SADDAM.
SOME ARAB STATES, INCLUDING EGYPT, HAVE REPORTEDLY INITIATED
CONTACTS WITH THE IRAQI OPPOSITION, WHILE OTHERS HAVE MOVED TO
STRENGTHEN EXISTING TIES WITH GROUPS THAT WERE ONCE DISMISSED IN
THE ARAB WORLD AND ELSEWHERE AS FRACTURED AND INEFFECTIVE.
"THE OPPOSITION IS NOT STRONG AND IT DOES NOT CONTROL MUCH
TERRITORY", SAYS A TOP COMMANDER OF KUWAIT'S ARMED FORCES.
"BUT," HE ADDS, "ANY GROUP THAT PROMISES CHANGE IN IRAQ SHOULD BE
SUPPORTED."
THE KUWAITI GOVERNMENT IS DEVELOPING INCREASINGLY CLOSE TIES WITH
THE SUPREME COUNCIL FOR THE ISLAMIC REVOLUTION IN IRAQ, AN
IRANIAN-BACKED SHIITE MUSLIM GROUP THAT IS SAID TO COMMAND SOME
FIVE THOUSAND ARMED SUPPORTERS IN SOUTHERN IRAQ.
THE GROUP'S LEADER, MOHAMMED BAQR AL-HAKIM, HAS MADE SEVERAL
VISITS TO KUWAIT, PROMPTING SPECULATION THAT IRAQ'S SOUTHERN
NEIGHBOR COULD BECOME A BASE OF OPERATIONS FOR THE SUPREME
COUNCIL'S FIGHTERS.
THE KUWAITI MILITARY COMMANDER, IN A CONVERSATION WITH WESTERN
REPORTERS SEVERAL MONTHS AGO, SAID SOUTHERN IRAQ IS READY FOR A
NEW REVOLT AGAINST BAGHDAD. "THE REVOLUTION IS THERE," HE SAID,
"ALL IT NEEDS IS A SPARK."
OTHER ANALYSTS, HOWEVER, DISPUTE THAT ASSESSMENT. THEY SAY NO
ONE IN SOUTHERN IRAQ HAS FORGOTTEN THE BLOODBATH OF 1991, WHEN A
SHIITE-LED UPRISING AGAINST BAGHDAD IN THE AFTERMATH OF THE GULF
WAR WAS BRUTALLY SUPPRESSED BY IRAQI TROOPS.
THE MAN WHO COMMANDED THAT OPERATION, GENERAL ALI HASSAN
AL-MAJID, A COUSIN OF THE IRAQI PRESIDENT, IS NOW REPORTED BACK
IN THE SOUTH, HEADING WHAT OPPOSITION GROUPS DESCRIBE AS A
CAMPAIGN TO ROUND UP ARMY DESERTERS.
(OPT) HE IS OFTEN PORTRAYED IN THE ARAB MEDIA AS THE MOST
RUTHLESS OF SADDAM'S LIEUTENANTS. U-S DEFENSE DEPARTMENT
OFFICIALS HAVE DUBBED HIM "CHEMICAL ALI" BECAUSE HE IS REPORTED
TO HAVE COMMANDED THE INFAMOUS 1988 CHEMICAL WEAPONS ATTACK ON
THE KURDISH TOWN OF HALABJA IN NORTHERN IRAQ. (END OPT)
GENERAL ZINNI SAYS THE FACT THAT GENERAL ALI HAS BEEN DISPATCHED
TO THE SOUTH ON A MISSION TO BOLSTER INTERNAL SECURITY IS A
FURTHER SIGN OF THE PROBLEMS FACING SADDAM HUSSEIN.
///ZINNI ACT///
I THINK THERE ARE SIGNS THAT THERE IS A DEGREE OF LOSS
OF CONTROL, AND HE (SADDAM) IS SHAKEN. NOW TO WHAT
DEGREE THAT IS AND HOW SIGNIFICANT THAT IS....I COULD
NOT MAKE THAT JUDGEMENT.
///END ACT///
WHILE GENERAL ZINNI REMAINS CAUTIOUS IN HIS ASSESSMENT, THE
PHRASE "END GAME" HAS BEGUN TO CROP UP (APPEAR) IN COMMENTS FROM
OTHER U-S OFFICIALS, WHO SUGGEST THAT SADDAM HUSSEIN'S THIRTY
YEAR GRIP ON POWER IN IRAQ MAY BE DRAWING TO A CLOSE. (SIGNED)
NEB/DBR/PT
08-Jan-99 4:10 PM EST (2110 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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