DATE=1/7/99
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-42307
TITLE=SADDAM ACTIONS
BYLINE=LAURIE KASSMAN
DATELINE=LONDON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: IRAQI PRESIDENT SADDAM HUSSEIN HAS BEGUN LASHING OUT
AGAINST U-S AND BRITISH FLIGHTS OVER IRAQ -- AGAINST ARAB
NEIGHBORS, AGAINST THE "NO-FLY" ZONES IMPOSED ON IRAQ AFTER THE
GULF WAR, AND EVEN AGAINST U-N SPONSORED LANDMINE-CLEARING
OPERATIONS. ARE THESE THE ACTIONS OF A LEADER STRENGTHENED OR
WEAKENED BY THE U-S AND BRITISH AIRSTRIKES LAST MONTH? LONDON
CORRESPONDENT LAURIE KASSMAN SPOKE WITH SOME MIDDLE EAST EXPERTS
FOR THEIR VIEWS.
TEXT: SADDAM HUSSEIN'S ATTACKS AGAINST U-S AIRCRAFT FLYING OVER
IRAQ ARE SEEN BY MANY ANALYSTS AS HIS NEED TO SHOW HE HAS NOT
BEEN DEFEATED. MIDEAST EXPERTS LIKE NEIL PARTRICK OF LONDON'S
ROYAL INSTITUTE FOR DEFENSE STUDIES SAY HIS DENOUNCEMENT OF THE
NO-FLY ZONES THEMSELVES ARE ALSO AIMED AT DRIVING A DEEPER WEDGE
BETWEEN THE FIVE PERMANENT MEMBERS OF THE U-N SECURITY COUNCIL.
/// PARTRICK ACT ///
HE IS ALSO PICKING ON A VERY SENSITIVE ISSUE IN TERMS
OF POSSIBLE RE-UNITED WESTERN COOPERATION AND COMMON
POLICY TOWARD IRAQ IN TARGETING THE NO-FLY ZONES
THEMSELVES, BECAUSE THEY ARE NOT BACKED BY ANY U-N
RESOLUTION. THEY ARE NOT SUPPORTED BY RUSSIA OR
CHINA. THEY HAVE ONLY LIMITED BACKING BY FRANCE. SO
IN THE CONTEXT OF THAT WAR IN DECEMBER AND SUBSEQUENT
CRITICISM OF U-S AND BRITISH POLICY, IT IS USEFUL FOR
SADDAM TO PICK AT THAT SORE POINT AMONG THE FIVE
PERMANENT MEMBERS OF THE SECURITY COUNCIL AND TARGET
THOSE NO-FLY ZONES.
/// END ACT ///
IRAQI DISSIDENT SHERIF ALI BIN HUSSEIN, WHOSE COUSIN, KING FAISAL
THE SECOND, WAS OVERTHROWN IN 1958, NOW HEADS THE CONSTITUTIONAL
MONARCHY MOVEMENT. HE SAYS SADDAM HUSSEIN IS NOW EXTENDING THAT
FAMILIAR PATTERN OF CONFRONTATION TO THE ARAB WORLD BY SHARPLY
CRITICIZING SOME OF HIS NEIGHBORS FOR NOT SUPPORTING HIM.
/// ALI ACT ///
HE HAS ALSO MOVED ON THE DIPLOMATIC FRONT WHERE HE WAS
HOPING THAT A SUMMIT OF THE ARAB NATIONS WOULD TAKE
PLACE, AND THAT IT WOULD CONDEMN THE AIRSTRIKES AND THE
U-S POSITION ON IRAQ. BUT HE IS CLEARLY FAILING ON THAT
AND I THINK THAT THIS IS THE ACT OF A DESPERATE MAN,
WHERE HE REALIZES HIS TIME IS UP, BUT HE IS TRYING TO
FIGHT HIS BATTLES ON HIS OWN TERRITORY AND HIS OWN
TIMETABLE.
/// END ACT ///
MIDEAST EXPERT NEIL PARTRICK ALSO SEES DESPERATION IN SADDAM
HUSSEIN'S PLEA TO ARABS TO RALLY AROUND HIM .
/// PARTRICK ACT TWO ///
I THINK THE STRONG SPEECH BY SADDAM IN ADVANCE OF IRAQI
NATIONAL ARMY DAY TO STIR UP THE ARAB STREET, STIR UP
POPULAR REVOLT IS NOT SO MUCH A SIGN OF STRENGTH AFTER
THE WAR IN DECEMBER. IT IS ACTUALLY A SIGN OF
DESPERATION. HE WAS HOPING THE RESPONSE TO THE ACTION
WOULD BE A RALLYING TO THE IRAQI SIDE TO SOME EXTENT BY
THE ARAB REGIMES OF THE REGION. BUT THAT DID NOT
HAPPEN.
/// END ACT ///
INSTEAD, ARAB NEIGHBORS NOW DISTANCE THEMSELVES FROM THE IRAQI
LEADERSHIP.
/// PARTRICK ACT THREE ///
...WHEN A FEW MONTHS AGO THERE SEEMED TO BE SIGNS IN THE
GULF AND EGYPT AND SYRIA THAT THEY WANTED TO COME TO
SOME RECKONING WITH SADDAM, THE OPPOSITE HAS PROVEN TO
BE THE CASE NOW, ESPECIALLY WITH EGYPT. AND THE GULF IS
NOT SHOWING ANY FURTHER SIGNS OF MOVING CLOSER TO IRAQ,
DESPITE THE FACT THEY HAVE HEIR OWN FRUSTRATIONS, GIVEN
THAT IRAQ IS WEAK AND IRAN HAS EMERGED FROM THE SHADOWS.
/// END ACT ///
MILITARY ANALYSTS SUGGEST SADDAM HUSSEIN'S SECURITY AT HOME
PROBABLY HAS BEEN WEAKENED AFTER THE U-S AND BRITISH AIRSTRIKES
AGAINST THE ELITE REPUBLICAN GUARD UNITS. BUT IRAQI DISSIDENTS
WARN SADDAM HUSSEIN IS CAPABLE OF DRASTIC ACTIONS INSIDE OR
OUTSIDE IRAQ IF HE FEELS HIS POWER AND HIS LIFE ARE THREATENED.
ANALYSTS ACKNOWLEDGE THE IRAQI LEADER HAS MANAGED, IN THE PAST,
TO TIGHTEN HIS GRIP ON POWER BY PURGING ENEMIES AND CONSOLIDATING
THE SMALL BUT LOYAL CIRCLE AROUND HIM. THEY SAY HIS LATEST
ACTIONS SHOW SADDAM HUSSEIN MAY BE WEAK, BUT HE IS NOT YET
FINISHED. (SIGNED)
NEB/LK/RAE/RRM
07-Jan-99 11:57 AM EST (1657 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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