05 January 1999
IRAQ'S CHALLENGE TO NO-FLY ZONE BECOMES "MORE AGGRESSIVE"
(Bacon says military rules of engagement remain the same) (810) By Jacquelyn S. Porth USIA Security Affairs Writer Washington -- Iraqi violations of the UN designated no-fly zones have become "more aggressive" in recent weeks, according to Pentagon spokesman Ken Bacon, as U.S. and British air forces have continued to demonstrate their willingness to go after Iraqi planes that fly into those zones. Bacon told reporters at the January 5 Defense Department briefing that in the latest clashes on January 5, U.S. and British military analysts recorded eight separate violations of the southern no-fly zone below the 33rd parallel that were carried out by more than a dozen Iraqi jets. The first serious incident occurred to the southwest of Baghdad when Iraqi MiG-25s illuminated two U.S. F-15 aircraft with their radar. The U.S. aircraft responded by firing air-to-air missiles against the Iraq MiGs. A second incident occurred only 15 minutes later some 100 kilometers away in an area southeast of Baghdad when two more Iraqi MiG-25s engaged two U.S. F-14 aircraft flying from the aircraft carrier, the USS Carl Vinson. The F-14s fired missiles at the engaging aircraft resulting in the departure of the Iraqi aircraft from the southern no-fly zone. A total of six Sparrow, Phoenix, and AMRAAM missiles were fired against Iraqi targets. There were no reports of American or British casualties. Bacon said one press report of the crash of an Iraqi MiG-23 jet may be attributable to the aircraft running out of fuel rather than being downed by a missile. The two no-fly zones were established as the result of United Nations Security Council resolutions designed "to prevent Saddam Hussein from using his forces to attack his own people," Bacon explained, "and from using his air forces to threaten his neighbors." Air patrols have been policing the northern no-fly zone above the 36th parallel since 1991. The southern no-fly zone air patrols began in 1992 below the 32nd parallel; the zone was later expanded to include the 33rd parallel. Together, the two zones account for approximately 60 percent of Iraqi air space. "We believe that the northern no-fly zone, above the 36th parallel, and the southern no-fly zone, below the 33rd parallel, give us adequate space," Bacon said, to keep Saddam Hussein from doing what the UN resolutions are designed to prevent: attacking Iraqi minority groups such as the Kurds in the north and the Marsh Arabs in the south as well as any aerial attacks against Iraq's neighbors. The spokesman said it is not clear why Iraq is increasingly challenging the enforcement regime by flying longer and deeper into the no-fly zones, but he suggested it could represent Saddam Hussein's frustration in the wake of brief coalition air strikes conducted as part of "Operation Desert Fox" in December. He also noted that while Iraq is being far more conservative with respect to its remaining surface-to-air missile sites, it is making up for this by being more aggressive with its combat air assets. "We are going through a period of challenge" by Iraqi military forces, Bacon said, and, in turn, "we are responding to those challenges and will continue to respond to those challenges." The spokesman pointed to the difficulty of trying to psychoanalyze the motivations of the Iraq president, adding, "for Saddam Hussein, defiance frequently is his only strategy." Bacon also suggested that Saddam Hussein's frustration has been compounded by his inability "to win a lot of support from neighboring Arab countries" in the post-"Desert Fox" political environment. In addition, the spokesman said the Iraqi leader "has not been able to win the support he'd hoped for in the UN Security Council to promote his goal of escaping the sanctions." Asked if coalition patrols were flying more provocative mission profiles, the spokesman said the military rules of engagement "remain the same" and it is "business as usual" with respect to enforcing the no-fly zones. Bacon also made reference to anecdotal evidence of growing instability in Iraq, citing reports of recent assassinations as well as some indications that "popular confidence" has been shaken in Saddam Hussein's military and defense apparatus because of his inability to defend Iraq. There have also been reports of a growing number of electricity brown-outs and a reduction in other critical services. Although there have been no recent reports of Iraqi threats against neighboring countries, Bacon indicated there had been some talk of mass arrests in the capital and among Shi'a minorities in the south. "We have also seen some destruction of irrigation systems and burning in a swamp area where the Shi'a opposition live" in the marshes, he added.
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