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Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)

November 2, 1998

IRAQI WEAPONS INSPECTIONS: 'SADDAM'S NEW BLUFF'

Foreign media attention this weekend focused on Iraq's decision on Saturday to ban UN weapons inspectors from working in the country. Writers likened Baghdad's recidivism over arms inspections to a poker game, with Iraq's Saddam Hussein "calling the UN's bluff" and testing the UNSC's resolve yet again. A few compared the Iraqi leader to Yugoslav President Milosevic in that Mr. Hussein's "brinksmanship enables him to mobilize a xenophobic show of support within his borders." Several writers judged that Mr. Hussein, in igniting the crisis, was emboldened by several factors: U.S. attention being diverted by mid-term elections and other crises abroad, fissures within the UNSC, and the expectation that Secretary General Annan would again mediate, which would result in "a further watering down of an already largely impotent exercise." In Israel, the independent Jerusalem Post asserted: "Much of the blame for the failure of UN diplomacy with Iraq can be laid squarely on two factors--the faded will of the U.S. and its allies to use force, and Secretary General Annan's weakness in dealing with Saddam." Most papers voiced concern that "if the UN cannot come up with a credible response to this latest provocation, the next will not be long in coming." These were highlights:

SANCTIONS, YEA OR NAY?: Reaction was mixed as to whether to end or maintain UN sanctions against Iraq which limit the sale of oil, ban air travel and bar most trade deals. The Arab pundits continued to take the lead in calling for an end to the embargo, with many echoing Iraq's contention that it has met all UN requirements and that a continuation of the boycott only harms innocent civilians. Tunis's independent As-Sabah scolded, "The boycott...forces more than 20 million people to live close to death. This situation is untenable now that Iraq has promised to implement most of the UN resolutions." Doha's semi-independent Al-Watan insisted that the "unjust" sanctions be lifted and argued that Baghdad's decision not to renew cooperation with the United Nations Special Commission (UNSCOM) "is justified" and that "American claims are no longer convincing enough." London's centrist Independent also added its voice to those calling for an end to the embargo but cautioned that the weapons inspectorate should be retained and backed by force. "We are destroying Saddam's people while ennobling him as a martyr," the paper reasoned. "Give him open trade--it will do far more to undermine him than isolation will ever do." On the other hand, several commentators--from Sweden to Australia to Hong Kong--argued that a unified global stand and a tougher line toward Baghdad, including continued sanctions and air strikes, provide the only antidote to Iraq's "policy of obstruction."

IRAQ'S DISARMAMENT: A few writers expressed concern about the perception that UNSCOM "has failed, despite its undisputed achievements" to check Iraq's "covert campaign to become a nuclear, chemical and biological superpower." While a Qatari paper found a "positive" side to Baghdad's statement that it would not cooperate with UNSCOM--"namely, that the International Atomic Energy Agency was exempted from non-cooperation"--most other media joined a Danish paper in bemoaning the world's inability to agree on "logical, long-term policies in an area which is so important for global security--the spread of weapons of mass destruction."

This survey is based on 23 reports from 14 countries, November 1- 2.

EDITORS: Gail Hamer Burke and Katherine Starr

To Go Directly To Quotes By Region, Click Below

|  EUROPE  |    |  MIDDLE EAST  |    |  EAST ASIA AND THE PACIFIC  |    |  LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN  |

MIDDLE EAST

ISRAEL: "Saddam Tries Again"

The independent Jerusalem Post charged (11/1): "Much of the blame for the failure of UN diplomacy with Iraq can be laid squarely on two factors--the faded will of the United States and its allies to use force, and Secretary General Annan's weakness in dealing with Saddam.... All eyes will now turn to the United States.... Washington's initial statement of disapproval yesterday is just not good enough.... Saddam's timing, with congressional elections imminent, is no coincidence, and he will assume there is little stomach in Washington for a new military confrontation. But with Saddam, it is a case of confrontation now, or confrontation later."

QATAR: "Iraqi Decision Is Justified"

Semi-independent Al-Watan (11/2): "The Iraqi decision is justified, and American claims are no longer convincing enough. What Washington is doing has lead to a destructive catastrophe for the Iraqi people.... The time has come to start measures to completely lift the sanctions. As for threatening the use of force...this only reveals the absence of political vision on the part of the West as a whole and the United States and Britain in particular. What the Iraqi people need is some hope that the unjust sanctions will be lifted not some more cruise missiles."

"Israel's Fingerprints"

Columnist and journalist Mazin Hammad wrote (11/1) in semi-independent Al-Watan, "We are not military experts, but it is difficult for a sane person to visualize an Iraq capable of threatening anyone. Keeping the sanctions as they are is therefore not aimed at avenging Kuwait or punishing the regime in Baghdad, but destroying the Iraqi nation, people, and social fabric. No one in the world can refer to a broken Iraq without finding Israel's fingerprints on the matter. (Former UNSCOM Inspector Scott) Ritter, Mossad's agent, was neither the first nor last fingerprint. It is impossible for Iraq to provide evidence proving it does not have weapons, and it is equally impossible for the inspection teams to prove that all of the weapons were destroyed. Amongst these impossibilities, people are being sacrificed; they moan and die while the regime that (the people) claim they want to remove is becoming stronger and richer."

"Lift The Sanctions; Necessary To Form A New Inspections Committee"

Semi-independent, Arabic Al-Rayah judged (11/1): "The fact that great mistakes have been committed by UNSCOM should be admitted, especially its members' involvement in activities not related to the UN mandate.... Maintaining the status quo is madness and foolishness if the West thinks that it is capable of removing Saddam Hussein. Pressure should be applied toward implementing resolutions related to the second Gulf war. The current situation, in which the Iraqi people are punished with inhumane cruelty, negates any excuse behind which the United States hides to prolong the sanctions. There are positive signals in the Iraqi statement, namely, that the International Atomic Energy Agency was exempted from non-cooperation. It is therefore necessary to form a new inspection committee, since the present one's claims of nerve gas production were proven false by neutral laboratories. It is also important that the Security Council look positively and sincerely at Iraq's right to have sanctions lifted, since it has been committed to implementing UN resolutions in order to relieve the Iraqi people's unprecedented suffering."

TUNISIA: "What Is Required To Contain A New Crisis"

Co-editor-in-chief Abdelhamid Riahi stated in independent As-Sabah (11/2): "Iraq charged that the commission was not independent and that...its members were spying for U.S. and Israeli intelligence. This behavior is part of a plot aimed against Iraq.... The boycott...forces more

than 20 million people to live close to death. This situation is untenable now that Iraq has promised to implement most of the UN resolutions. Iraq opted to suspend cooperation with the UN only after the patience of the Iraqi government and that of the Iraqi people had run out."

EUROPE

BRITAIN: "Hit Saddam Hard"

The conservative Daily Telegraph asserted (11/2): "It's that man again, and it will be, again and again, until the UN or some of its more determined members take military action to prevent his recidivism. Is the latest crisis the final calling of the UN's bluff?... Saddam means terror, confrontation and war.... The authority of the UN is already being undermined by those members who collude with him in evading sanctions. It will be in tatters if he is allowed to terminate UNSCOM operations. Giving money to the Iraqi resistance is little more than a symbolic gesture. What is needed is the will to hit Iraq repeatedly from the air until Saddam backs down. He must now believe he can defy the UN with impunity. It is time that he was sharply disabused."

"Time To Rethink Policy On Iraq"

The centrist Independent maintained (11/2): "We'll huff and we'll puff but we won't blow Saddam down--any more than we're going to topple Slobodan Milosevic.... The best we can hope for in the escalating crisis over Iraq's decision to throw out the weapons inspectors is the same as in Kosovo: that somehow the threat of force can impel a return to the bargaining table. A shoddy compromise will then be worked out until Saddam or Milosevic see an opportunity to turn up the heat or take advantage of distractions in America to push the line forward again. It is a dreary repetition which has gone on, in Iraq's case, for eight years now. And it will keep on repeating itself every few months for the simple reason that, for the West, sanctions are a substitute for doing nothing, not a means of achieving an agreed and defined aim.... It is time we were honest about what we can and cannot do in Iraq. Yes, we can get the inspectors back. But it is also time to concede that Iraq has a point on sanctions. We are destroying Saddam's people while ennobling him as a martyr. Give him open trade--it will do far more to undermine him than isolation will ever do. But keep the inspectorate and back it with force."

FRANCE: "Saddam's New Bluff"

Jean-Pierre Perrin argued in left-of-center Liberation (11/2): "Even if this new crisis has the appearance of deja vu, the situation is much different.... Today, Baghdad knows that in the short term, the lifting of the embargo is inevitable and that the United States is less inclined to use force.... What remains to be seen is whether this new Iraqi challenge will profit Iraq or, on the other hand, postpone the lifting of the embargo. As a rule, Saddam Hussein has always excelled in losing when he bluffs."

"Saddam's New Show Of Anger"

Claude Lorieux maintained in right-of-center Le Figaro (11/2): "There is a feeling of deja vu...yet the presence of many foreign businessmen in Baghdad, convinced that the embargo will not last for ever, proves that things are changing.... France is showing signs of weariness, and while Saddam continues to irritate (the rest of the world), he is no longer as isolated.... The Arab world is much too concerned by the relationship developing between Israel and Turkey, not to want Iraq back on the international scene."

"A New Crisis Between Washington And Baghdad"

Right-of-center Les Echos opined (11/2): "Even if everyone has few illusions about Baghdad and its capacity for dissimulation, it is obvious that each time Iraq appears on the brink of somewhat satisfying UN demands, UNSCOM raises a major objection. This systematic procedure goes hand in hand with Washington's containment policy toward Baghdad. So much so that we cannot help but wonder about UNSCOM's independence from the United States."

GERMANY: "Saddam Again"

Udo Ulfkotte had this to say in right-of-center Frankfurter Allgemeine (11/1): "Since May, 1991, Saddam has been in a war of nerves with UN weapons inspectors and has shown great obstinacy.... The end to Iraqi cooperation with UN disarmament experts is a slap in the face of the international community. Who will stop him this time? The United States is fed up with deploying forces in the Persian Gulf and bearing the political and financial costs. This is why Saddam's harsh move are based on well conceived calculations. Will Russia and UN Secretary General Kofi Annan mediate again? They are all fed up with the Iraqi games, but do not know how to stop Saddam."

"A Conflict Without End"

Heiko Flottau noted in centrist Sueddeutsche Zeitung of Munich (11/1): "Saddam Hussein has again maneuvered himself into a dead-end street. Russia, China, and France, which are interested in a lifting of sanctions on Iraq...must now also pursue a tough line. A lifting of the embargo...is now even more unlikely.... But the Americans played into Saddam's hands when they made us understand that they wanted to achieve Saddam's ouster with the embargo on Iraq. The sanctions have strengthened his position and damaged the people. The regime cannot be toppled with sanctions or through financial support of the weak and divided opposition abroad."

"Baghdad Pinning Its Hopes On Lack Of UNSC Cohesiveness"

Right-of-center Fuldaer Zeitung argued (11/1): "The officials responsible in Baghdad are pinning their hopes on a lack of cohesiveness in the UNSC, which in the past prevented more resolute actions against the aggressor.... But Saddam should not pin his hopes on this alleged trump card, since an embattled Bill Clinton could launch another surprise coup to relieve domestic policy pressure."

"Sanctions Must Be Lifted Sooner Or Later"

Right-of-center Neue Presse of Hanover suggested (11/1), "The situation is tricky. On the one hand, 20 million people cannot be punished forever for a ruler they have not elected and whom they can hardly topple. On the other hand, an Iraq without any international control is too risky a matter, as long as Saddam Hussein is in power. The sanctions must be lifted sooner or later, anything else would be immoral.... The Iraq embargo has stirred up Arab emotions against the United States, but arms control must remain valid even without sanctions."

ITALY: "Saddam's Vote In The Congressional Elections"

A commentary by Aldo Rizzo in centrist, influential La Stampa held (11/2): "Obviously one cannot prove a direct link between Saddam's decision to reopen the crisis and the imminent Congressional elections upon which Clinton's political survival depends. But the suspicion is well founded.... The United States seems to face objective difficulties in outlining an effective strategy against Saddam Hussein.... Notwithstanding Iraq's latest provocations, there are still

uncertainties and counter-indications regarding a possible military attack which, at this point, can only be massive and decisive.... Saddam is like Milosevic in the Balkans, possibly even worse, due to Iraq's programs to build mass destruction weapons."

AUSTRIA: "Waiting For Saddam's Mistakes"

Christian Ultsch argued in prestigious, conservative Die Presse (11/2): "With his repeated provocations, the Iraqi despot aims at gradually weakening the anti-Iraq-alliance. And he does it rather successfully. The international community has long become tired of Iraq. The United States has hardly any allies for taking action against Baghdad. This was all too obvious in recent crises. Washington therefore tried to change its strategy.... Apparently, they wanted to wait until Saddam Hussein makes a mistake and his sympathizers at the UN Security Council have no other choice but remorsefully to return into the arms of the United States. With his recent decision to show the UN inspectors the door, Saddam may now have gone too far."

"Helplessness"

Independent Der Standard's foreign affairs editor Gudrun Harrer maintained (11/2): "The temporary end of the UN disarmament mission was not unexpected. The fact that Baghdad's policy of obstruction has hardly be noted during recent weeks and months...reflects the basic mood of the West in this perpetuated conflict: Helplessness. And however this story may end, UNSCOM...has failed, despite its undisputed achievements: It has destroyed more weapons than the Allies during the war.... Today, all experts agree on principle that, for technical and practical reasons, there can never be 100 percent security for a 100 percent disarmament of Iraq, not even safe statements on past arms programs.... UNSCOM could never establish itself as a purely technical and apolitical instrument of the UN vis-a-vis the policy of the United States. This is...tragic, in view of the fact that the U.S. policy has failed, too: It is true that the fallen giant Iraq cannot do any harm any longer--above all, it couldn't prevent the normalization process between Israelis and Arabs, but in the country itself, Saddam reigns with a firmer hand than ever.... A key question is whether the United States fought its way free by means of the Wye Plantation agreement and proved to its former Arab allies that it is not only willing to drop missiles on Baghdad, but also to put pressure on Israel. This is what the further course of this crisis will depend on."

DENMARK: "In Iraq's Interest To Keep Things On The Fire"

Left-wing Information commented (11/2): "A year has passed since the first crisis between Saddam Hussein and the international community broke out, but nothing has come out of America and its allies' strategy toward the small but dangerous country. The reason Saddam is up to his tricks again is obvious: He has nothing to lose. The fact of the matter is that Iraq is a broken nation.... The United States is behaving like a wounded animal that cannot stand being teased by a smaller creature. This behavior reveals more weakness than strength. Who can condemn Iraq for provoking yet another crisis? It is in Iraq's best interests to keep things on the fire. Saddam Hussein's goal is to get the sanctions lifted while retaining as much military power as possible. On the other hand, we can condemn the United States and its allies for the absence of logical, long-term policies in an area which is so important for global security--namely, the spread of weapons of mass destruction."

POLAND: "Iraq's Games"

Ryszard Malik observed in centrist Rzeczpospolita (11/2): "Another crisis in Iraq...is attracting less and less attention from the world. But the game, which sometimes has the air of American-Iraqi animosities, has more at stake. The point is not only Hussein but the situation in this strategically crucial part of the world. At stake is who will be dealing cards."

SWEDEN: "Pressure On Iraq From Unified UNSC Must Remain"

Independent, liberal Dagens Nyheter told its readers (11/2): "The work of the weapons inspectors is vital since Saddam Hussein has proved that he does not mind using the arsenals he has at his disposal.... Pressure on Iraq by the international community must remain...and unity and resolution (by the UNSC)...is a must. We have learned from experience that words only are not very effective when dealing with a ruthless dictator like Hussein."

LATIN AMERICA AND CANADA

CANADA: "Apocalypse Soon: Saddam 11"

Guest columnist Alexander Rose observed in the new National Post (11/2): "The basic problem is a diplomatic, not a military one. The Western powers are too divided to threaten a joint military strike for what, in the case of any single violation, will look like a minor infraction of the rules. They avert their gaze not simply from Iraqi violations, but from the long-term prospect that Saddam will eventually obtain the military means to dominate his neighbours, to threaten Western Europe, and to deter any Western intervention against regional Iraqi aggression on the lines of Desert Storm. What is worse, the outside powers are more interested in scoring points off each other or seeking lucrative arms contracts than in preserving a pro-Western balance of power in the Middle East.... If the Clinton administration and the UN continue to dither--and unless another Monica steps forward to give Bill Clinton a reason to act...others will have to avert this growing danger. For Israel as well as the West is threatened by Iraqi's covert campaign to become a nuclear, chemical and biological superpower. Israel knows it; we don't."

EAST ASIA

AUSTRALIA: "Time To Stare Down Saddam Hussein"

The national conservative Australian held (11/2)" "Hussein has shown himself to be a master manipulator of hesitation and division within the UNSC. Like President Milosevic in Serbia, his brinkmanship enables him to mobilize a xenophobic show of support within his borders.... As in Yugoslavia, the lesson of Iraq is that unless defiance is met with unity and resolution, global opposition will suffer an enervating cycle of crises. If the UN cannot come up with a credible response to this latest Iraqi provocation, the next will not be long coming."

HONG KONG: "Taming Saddam"

The independent South China Morning Post commented (11/2): "The UN has a troubled history in dealing with tyrants. Tyrants, on the other hand, have found manipulation of the Security Council child's play. President Saddam Hussein knows exactly how long to keep the leash on which he dangles UNSCOM.... If events follow the predictable course, Mr. Annan will once more act as a last-minute mediator, and the result may be a further watering down of an already largely impotent exercise. The whole exercise has become a farce. Iraq must be sharply told that humanitarian aid is all his country can expect from the international community until such time as every weapons site has been cleared."

For more information, please contact:

U.S. Information Agency

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Telephone: (202) 619-4355

11/2/98

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