DATE=12/22/98
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-42217
TITLE=RESULTS OF BOMBING IRAQ
BYLINE= ED WARNER
DATELINE= WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: WHAT DID THE U-S LED ATTACK ON IRAQ ACCOMPLISH? THAT
QUESTION WAS DISCUSSED AT A WASHINGTON CONFERENCE, AND THE
ANSWERS VARIED FROM PARTIAL SUCCESS TO NONE AT ALL. V-O-A'S ED
WARNER REPORTS SOME OF THE CONTRASTING REACTIONS TO THE LATEST
EFFORT TO SUPPRESS SADDAM HUSSEIN.
TEXT: INTELLIGENCE WAS BETTER. BOMBING WAS MORE PRECISE AND
LESS INHIBITED. THAT WAS THE VIEW OF MICHAEL EISENSTADT,
DISCUSSING THE U-S RAID ON IRAQ AT A RECENT MEETING OF THE
WASHINGTON INSTITUTE FOR NEAR EAST POLICY.
A MILITARY ANALYST AT THE INSTITUTE, MR. EISENSTADT SAID THE
CLINTON ADMINISTRATION DESERVES SOME PRAISE FOR THE EFFORT:
// EISENSTADT ACT //
I THINK THE PRESIDENT AND HIS SENIOR ADVISERS SAID ALL
THE RIGHT THINGS. THE MILITARY HIT THE RIGHT TARGETS.
WITH THE CONTAINMENT REGIME TOTTERING AND LACKING
DOMESTIC SUPPORT FOR A MAJOR GROUND WAR TO UNSEAT
SADDAM, U-S DECISION MAKERS HAD TO SETTLE FOR HALF
MEASURES THAT WILL PROBABLY NEVER YIELD ANYTHING MORE
THAN PARTIAL RESULTS.
// END ACT //
LESS THAN PARTIAL, REPLIED ELIOT COHEN, DIRECTOR OF STRATEGIC
STUDIES AT THE SCHOOL OF ADVANCED INTERNATIONAL STUDIES AT JOHNS
HOPKINS UNIVERSITY:
// COHEN ACT //
! IF YOU ARE SADDAM HUSSEIN, SITTING THERE TODAY, AND TOU
ASK YOURSELF, "AM I BETTER OFF TODAY THAN I WAS A WEEK
AGO?" IT IS CONCEIVABLE TO ME THAT HIS ANSWER WOULD BE
"YES."
// END ACT //
MR. COHEN SAID THE STRIKE WAS NOT PART OF ANY LARGER STRATEGY AND
SIMPLY LEAVES SADDAM HUSSEIN STRONGER THAN EVER BECAUSE HE HAS
STOOD UP TO THE SUPERPOWER AND CAN NOW END THE WEAPONS
INSPECTIONS.
THE ONLY SOUND STRATEGY IS TO REDUCE HIS MILITARY MANPOWER, SAID
MR. COHEN. BUT THE UNITED STATES INSISTS ON KEEPING CASUALTIES ON
BOTH SIDES TO A MINIMUM. NOT A SINGLE AMERICAN OR BRITISH LIFE
WAS LOST ON THE RAIDS:
// COHEN ACT //
THE MOST IMPORTANT MEASURE OF EFFECTIVENESS FOR THIS
OPERATION IS - TO BE KIND OF BRUTAL ABOUT IT - NOT
BUILDINGS DESTROYED BUT PEOPLE KILLED. HERE WE REALLY
HAVE DEVELOPED A CERTAIN KIND OF SKITTISHNESS ABOUT
FACING UP TO WHAT IT IS THAT WE ARE REALLY TRYING TO DO,
WHICH IS TO KILL PEOPLE.
// END ACT //
THIS RELUCTANCE TO TAKE LIVES, SAID MR. COHEN, SHARPLY LIMITS THE
POWER OF THE WORLD'S ONLY REMAINING SUPERPOWER. IT HAS AWESOME
TECHNOLOGY IT IS UNWILLING TO USE.
THEN WHY THE BOMBING? MR. COHEN SAYS IRAQ HAS FEW REMAINING
WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION TO DESTROY. NOR COULD THE UNITED
STATES ELIMINATE THEM ALL UNLESS IT WANTS TO DENY PESTICIDES TO
IRAQ AND ABOLISH SCHOOL LABORATORIES. IN HIS OPINION, THE ATTACK
WAS LAUNCHED TO PRESERVE U-S CREDIBILITY:
// COHEN ACT //
IT SEEMS TO ME THAT THIS WAS A DECISION WHICH WAS
ACTUALLY MADE ON AUTO-PILOT. IT GOES BACK A MONTH AGO TO
THE LAST STAND-OFF WITH SADDAM, WHEN THE ADMINISTRATION
MADE A DECISION - WHICH IT NEVER REEXAMINED - THAT THE
NEXT TIME ONE OF THESE THINGS HAPPENED, IT WAS GOING TO
PULL THE TRIGGER WITHOUT THINKING, AND THAT IS WHAT THEY
DID.
// END ACT //
THERE WAS LITTLE THINKING ABOUT THE REACTION OF MUSLIMS,
ACCORDING TO SOME MEMBERS OF THE AUDIENCE. REND RAHIM FRANCKE,
EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR OF AN OPPOSITION GROUP, THE IRAQ FOUNDATION,
SAID THE UNITED STATES MAY HAVE BEEN ABLE TO STRIKE IRAQ ONCE
WITHOUT THE SUPPORT OF ARAB COUNTRIES:
// FRANCKE ACT //
BUT IT IS VERY DIFFICULT FOR THEM TO TOLERATE RECURRENT
STRIKES AT SHORT INTERVALS, AND ESPECIALLY I MIGHT ADD,
STRIKES WHICH DO NOT HAVE A PARTICULAR POLITICAL RESULT
AND A POLITICAL END GAME. THEY ARE NOT TIED TO A
POLITICAL DENOUEMENT IN IRAQ BUT TIED TO PUNISHMENT OR
REPRISAL.
// END ACT //
REND FRANCKE SAID THE UNITED STATES WILL DO BETTER BY WORKING WITH
THE IRAQI OPPOSITION SINCE DISCONTENT IN IRAQ IS WIDESPREAD.
(SIGNED)
NEB/PT
22-Dec-98 5:32 PM EST (2232 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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