DATE=12/22/98
TYPE=U-S OPINION ROUNDUP
NUMBER=6-11065
TITLE=ASSESSING THE ATTACK ON IRAQ
BYLINE=ANDREW N. GUTHRIE
TELEPHONE=619-3335
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
EDITOR=ASSIGNMENTS
CONTENT=
INTRO: THE UNITED STATES MILITARY IS CLOSELY ANALYZING THE
RESULTS OF FOUR DAYS OF INTENSIVE MISSILE AND AIRCRAFT ATTACKS ON
IRAQ, WHILE THE NATION'S NEWS MEDIA IS COMING FORTH WITH ITS OWN
ASSESSMENT.
SOME PAPERS ARE SAYING WHATEVER THE ATTACKS ACCOMPLISHED, THE
PROBLEM OF SADDAM HUSSEIN AND HIS COVERT WEAPONS-BUILDING PROGRAM
REMAINS, AND SEVERAL SAY IT TIME FOR A POLICY REASSESSMENT.
WE GET A SAMPLING OF COMMENTS LIKE THAT NOW FROM
_______________IN TODAY'S U-S OPINION ROUNDUP.
TEXT: A FRONT PAGE NEWS ANALYSIS IN MONDAY'S "BOSTON GLOBE"
SUGGESTS THAT THE FOUR DAYS OF CONCERTED ATTACKS MAY HAVE LESS
IMPACT THAT THE U-S MILITARY MIGHT HAVE WISHED.
AS REPORTED BY FRED KAPLAN, "THE GLOBE" REPORTS:"IF HIS
[PRESIDENT CLINTON'S] AIM WAS TO PUT A DENT IN SADDAM HUSSEIN'S
ABILITY TO PRODUCE CHEMICAL, NUCLEAR, AND BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS, THE
DENT WAS NOT A LARGE ONE. IF, AS SOME OF THE AIR WAR'S TARGETS
SUGGESTED, [MR.] CLINTON WAS TRYING TO DESTABILIZE HUSSEIN'S
REGIME, HE DID NOT!HIT ITS FOUNDATIONS HARD ENOUGH/
SPEAKING OF THE PENTAGON'S!ESTIMATES OF DAMAGE, JOHN PIKE,!A
SPECIALIST WITH THE FEDERATION OF AMERICAN SCIENTISTS, SAID ...
-- IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THEY DID ANYTHING ON WHAT THEY SAID THEY
WERE GOING TO DO, AND NOT ENOUGH ON WHAT THEY WERE ACTUALLY
DOING.
THE PENTAGON HAS ANNOUNCED THAT THE BOMBING AND MISSILES HIT A
TOTAL OF 97 TARGETS OVER THE FOUR DAYS, BUT DID NOT DAMAGE
BEYOND REPAIR MANY OF THOSE TARGETS, WHICH INCLUDED WEAPONS
SITES, MILITARY HEADQUARTERS AND INDUSTRIAL FACILITIES.
WE BEGIN OUR SAMPLING IN THE GREAT PLAINS, WHERE "THE OMAHA
WORLD-HERALD" IS DISAPPOINTED WITH THE RESULT.
VOICE: THE CLINTON ADMINISTRATION SQUANDERED A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF GOOD WILL AROUND THE WORLD WITH ITS ATTACKS ON
IRAQ -- WITH RELATIVELY LITTLE TO SHOW FOR IT.
SECRETARY OF DEFENSE WILLIAM COHEN SAID IRAQ'S MISSILE
PRODUCTION CAPABILITY WAS SET BACK A YEAR BY THE ...
ATTACKS. BUT THE STATED GOAL WAS TO REDUCE OR DESTROY
IRAQ'S CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE NUCLEAR, CHEMICAL AND
BIOLOGICAL WARHEADS. ... IT IS UNCLEAR WHERE THE UNITED
STATES GOES FROM HERE. ... SO FAR, THE MOST OBVIOUS
RESULTS OF THE IMPEACHMENT-WEEK WAR ARE A SHARP DIVISION
AMONG AMERICA'S ALLIES, THE TERMINATION OF THE WEAPONS
INSPECTION PROGRAM AND THE SURVIVAL OF AT LEAST PART OF
IRAQ'S FACILITIES FOR MAKING WEAPONS OF MASS
DESTRUCTION.
TEXT: "THE MIAMI HERALD" IS ALSO NOT CLEAR WHETHER THE AIR
CAMPAIGN WAS WORTH IT, SUGGESTION THAT -- AN OMINOUS THREAT STILL
REMAINS.
VOICE: AFTER FOUR DAYS OF RAINING HIGH-TECH DESTRUCTION ON
IRAQ, U-S AND BRITISH FORCES CAN CLAIM THAT THEIR
MISSION IS COMPLETE, BUT THEY CANNOT CLAIM VICTORY.
THAT IS THE TROUBLE WITH A LIMITED MILITARY OPERATION:
! THE RESULTS, LIKE THE MISSION, ALSO ARE LIMITED. ...
WHATEVER THE ULTIMATE [DAMAGE] ASSESSMENT ... THE FACT
REMAINS THAT IRAQ WAS NOT TOTALLY STRIPPED OF ITS WILL
TO WREAK HAVOC, OR THE ABILITY TO REBUILD ITS DEADLY
ARSENAL. ... THESE RESULTS CLEARLY ARE NOT WHAT MANY
WHO BELIEVE SADDAM HUSSEIN TO BE AN UNSTABLE, EVIL FORCE
HAD HOPED FOR OR WANTED. /// OPT /// ... THE
OPERATION'S MOST IMPORTANT MESSAGE MAY HAVE BEEN TO PUT
RENEWED FOCUS ON WHAT IS MISSING -- A LONG-TERM
STRATEGY, WITH WIDE U-N BACKING, FOR DENYING SADDAM
HUSSEIN THE CAPACITY TO BUILD AND USE WEAPONS OF MASS
DESTRUCTION. /// END OPT ///
TEXT: STILL IN FLORIDA, IN THE WAKE OF THE ATTACKS, "THE ORLANDO
SENTINEL" SAYS -- A NEW IRAQ STRATEGY [IS] NEEDED -- ADDING:
VOICE: THE RECENT AIR STRIKES ACCOMPLISHED LITTLE. NOW IS THE
TIME FOR WASHINGTON TO CONSIDER OTHER WAYS OF ATTAINING
A PROMPT SOLUTION TO THE RECURRING PROBLEMS WITH
BAGHDAD. /// OPT /// ... DID THE AIRSTRIKES ELIMINATE
THE PROBLEM OF IRAQ'S DANGEROUS BIOLOGICAL, CHEMICAL AND
NUCLEAR WEAPONS? NO. DID THE AIRSTRIKES REMOVE
DICTATOR SADDAM HUSSEIN? NO. DID THE AIRSTRIKES POINT
TO A RESOLUTION OF THE IRAQ CRISIS? NO. /// END OPT ///
... DURING THE NEXT FEW MONTHS, AS THE OVERALL EFFECT OF
THE AIRSTRIKES BECOMES BETTER UNDERSTOOD, THE UNITED
STATES AND ITS ALLIES SHOULD GIVE THE IRAQ CRISIS A NEW
LOOK [TO DEVELOP] A FRESH STRATEGY.
TEXT: "THE DALLAS MORNING NEWS" ON THE OTHER HAND, FEELS THE
ATTACKS MAY HAVE BEEN MORE EFFECTIVE THAN THEY APPEARED TO BE IN
ORLANDO.
VOICE: // OPT // IN FOUR DAYS, THE UNITED STATES AND BRITAIN
RAINED DOWN MORE MISSILES AND BOMBS ON IRAQ THAN DURING
THE ENTIRE PERSIAN GULF WAR IN 1991. // END OPT // AND
EVEN THOUGH PRESIDENT SADDAM HUSSEIN IS CROWING THAT
IRAQ HAS EMERGED 'VICTORIOUS,' DEVASTATION TO HIS NATION
IS CERTAIN TO BE EXTENSIVE. ... THE RAIDS' MESSAGE
REMAINS CLEAR: VIOLATIONS OF THE PEACE ACCORD ARE
UNACCEPTABLE. REFUSAL TO PERMIT U-N INSPECTION TEAMS
OPEN ACCESS WILL BE DEALT WITH FIRMLY. LESS CLEAR IS
WHAT THE UNITED STATES AND BRITAIN SHOULD DO NOW TO MAKE
CERTAIN THE ATTACK HAS ITS INTENDED IMPACT.
TEXT: MAINE'S "PORTLAND PRESS HERALD" SAYS WHATEVER THE SUCCESS,
OR LACK THEREOF, IN THE AIR CAMPAIGN -- SADDAM WILL BE [A] THREAT
AS LONG AS HE'S AROUND.
VOICE: THE CLINTON ADMINISTRATION IS RIGHT, NOW, TO OPENLY
ENCOURAGE INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL OPPOSITION TO SADDAM'S
BRUTAL RULE. THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A GOVERNMENT-IN-EXILE
BY THE OPPOSITION WOULD BE A LOGICAL NEXT STEP. A
GOVERNMENT DEDICATED TO DEMOCRATIC PRINCIPLES SHOULD
RECEIVE THE SUPPORT OF THE WEST; IRAQIS TAKING THE RISK
OF OPPOSING A DESPOT WHO HAS WAGED WAR ON HIS OWN PEOPLE
SHOULD KNOW THEY DO NOT STAND ALONE. // OPT // THE
70-HOUR AIR STRIKE WAS REMARKABLY SUCCESSFUL AS FAR AS
IT WENT. VIRTUALLY EVERY MILITARY FACTORY IN THE
COUNTRY WAS HIT, AND MANY WERE HEAVILY DAMAGED. TWENTY
COMMAND-AND-CONTROL FACILITIES WERE TAKEN OUT, AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY, AND NINE REPUBLICAN GUARD POSITIONS WERE
ATTACKED. .... NONE OF THIS MEANS SADDAM'S RESOLVE TO
CONTINUE THREATENING THE PEACE AND STABILITY OF THE
REGION HAS BEEN LESSENED AT ALL. HIS ABILITY TO CARRY
OUT THAT RESOLVE HAS BEEN WEAKENED, HOWEVER, AND HIS
WEAPONS PROGRAM SET BACK. // END OPT //
TEXT: BUT OPERATION " DESERT FOX" IS NOT GETTING SUCH RAVE
REVIEWS IN "THE WALL STREET JOURNAL."
VOICE: //OPT // IN ALL, 97 TARGETS WERE DESTROYED. SADDAM'S
AIR DEFENSES, COMMAND AND CONTROL NETWORKS AND BARRACKS
HOUSING HIS ELITE REPUBLICAN GUARDS WERE SEVERELY
DAMAGED. HIS ABILITY TO MAKE BIOLOGICAL AND CHEMICAL
WEAPONS MAY HAVE BEEN AFFECTED, DESPITE AN ALLIED EFFORT
TO AVOID EXPLODING HIGHLY LETHAL TOXINS INTO THE
ATMOSPHERE. // END OPT // AS TO HIS [SADDAM'S] MISSILE
PROGRAM, DEFENSE SECRETARY WILLIAM COHEN ESTIMATES THAT
IT HAS BEEN 'SET BACK BY AT LEAST A YEAR.' IN OTHER
WORDS ... [THE ATTACK] ... BOUGHT THE WORLD ONE YEAR'S
! RESPIUE FROM THE BAGHDAD MENACE, WHO BY NEXT CHRISTMAS
COULD AGAIN BE THREATENING HIS NEIGHBORS AND EUROPE WITH
LETHAL WEAPONS. ... HAS DESERT FOX INCREASED THE
LIKELIHOOD OF A TRANSFER OF POWER IN IRAQ? MOST EXPERTS
AGREE THE ANSWER IS NO. ... THE ATTACK WAS ... A
CHILLING TESTAMENT TO THE INSUFFICIENCY OF POWER WITHOUT
CREDIBLE LEADERSHIP. IT MAY BE CYNICISM TO SUGGEST THAT
BILL CLINTON WENT TO WAR JUST TO CREATE A DIVERSION,
[UNDERSTOOD HERE: "FROM THE IMPEACHMENT PROCEEDINGS"]
BUT THE POLITICAL DAMAGE INFLICTED BY THE WIDESPREAD
BELIEF THAT HE MIGHT HAVE DONE SO CANNOT BE EASILY
EXPUNGED.
TEXT: WITH THAT, WE CONCLUDE THIS SAMPLING OF EDITORIAL COMMENT
ON THE BOMBING AND MISSILE ATTACK ON IRAQ, AND WHERE THE U-S
SHOULD GO FROM HERE.
NEB/ANG/RAE
22-Dec-98 1:30 PM EST (1830 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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